【作者】 李维维；

【导师】 霍海燕；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 公共管理， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 习近平总书记指出:“人口问题始终是一个全局性、战略性问题”。第七次全国人口普查数据显示,2020年我国育龄妇女总和生育率为1.3,低于1.5的国际人口警戒线。为积极应对人口问题,2021年5月,国家宣布落实“三孩”政策,一时成为学界和业界关注的焦点。结合现实观察,“全面三孩”政策是否如政策所期提升生育意愿尚未定论,现实中影响生育意愿的因素极其复杂,单纯依靠放开生育政策未必就一定会提升生育意愿,因此需要进一步深入研究育龄妇女生育意愿的影响因素。“十四五”规划提出:“优化生育政策,增强生育政策的包容性”,提高生育意愿需要政府推动有关包容性政策的落实,因此需要探讨如何构建包容性生育政策来应对生育水平持续走低的风险,以此促进人口长期均衡发展。基于此,本文在“三孩”政策的现实背景下,以育龄妇女生育意愿影响因素为研究对象,遵循“问题提出-理论建构-实证检验-政策建议”的逻辑思路,对育龄妇女生育意愿的影响因素进行分析并提出包容性生育政策支持建议。首先,通过梳理国内外对于生育意愿和生育政策的相关研究基础上,提出本文的研究主题。其次,在文献研究的基础上,综合运用扎根理论方法构建生育意愿的影响因素模型,并采用计划行为理论、成本—收益理论等理论工具进行阐释。再次,根据基于包容性政策支持的理论模型,设计测量指标体系,以郑州市育龄妇女为样本研究“三孩”政策背景下育龄妇女生育意愿的影响因素。然后,采用质性研究数据分析工具探索生育政策的演变规律,通过NVivo方法分析生育政策的历史变迁、政策目标、政策内容等。最后,以包容性理念为基础,构建全面三孩时代包容性生育政策支持体系,生育支持体系从“时间—经济—服务—就业”四个方面入手,覆盖“孕—生—养—教”四个阶段,并提出社会多元主体的行动策略,以期对生育政策的完善提供理论支撑。本文的主要结论有:一是个人因素、家庭因素和社会因素影响生育意愿。其中个人因素中,内部成本对三孩生育意愿有显著的负向影响,保障效用对三孩生育意愿有积极的正向影响,而心理效用没有显著作用。由于一个家庭有一个孩子或两个孩子已经满足精神上的需求,当决策第三个孩子时,考虑更多的是生育成本和老年收益。家庭因素中,女性对于是否生育三孩往往会听取家人的意见,另外家庭经济地位越高,三孩生育意愿越高,经济地位高意味着家庭给予孩子足够的资源支持,有条件对子女投资更多人力资本。社会因素中,社会舆论正向影响育龄妇女的三孩生育意愿,女性在决定生育行为时会受到社会压力。生育文化对三孩生育意愿的影响不显著,但传统生育观念的变迁以及现代生育观念的形成共同冲击着孕龄妇女的生育意愿。二是政策因素作为调节变量能够影响其他变量对三孩生育意愿的预测。第一,从政策宣传的角度,政策宣传能够调节家庭经济地位、社会舆论、生育文化对三孩生育意愿的影响。政策宣传能够强化家庭经济地位对生育意愿的正向预测、减弱社会舆论对生育意愿的正向预测作用、加强生育文化对三孩生育意愿的负向预测作用。第二,从公共服务满意度的角度,公共服务满意度能够调节保障效用、家人意见和家庭经济地位对三孩生育意愿的影响。公共服务满意度能够加强保障效用对三孩生育意愿的正向预测能力、强化家人意见对三孩生育意愿的正向预测能力、促进家庭经济地位对三孩生育意愿的正向预测能力。第三,从包容性生育政策的角度,包容性政策能够调节内部成本、心理效用和家庭经济地位对三孩生育意愿的影响。包容性政策能够加强内部成本对三孩生育意愿的负向预测能力,使得心理效用对三孩生育意愿的正向关系转变为显著的负向相关关系,同时加强家庭经济地位对三孩生育意愿的正向预测能力。整体而言,积极的政策宣传、高公共服务满意度和包容性生育政策的实施有利于三孩生育意愿的提升。三是生育政策需要从时间、经济、服务、就业四个方面增加包容性。包容性生育支持体系的构建应从时间-经济-服务-就业四个方面入手,覆盖孕-生-养-教四个阶段,建立多维度的生育政策支持体系。政府应当加强生育假期的科学性、规范化和制度化,积极探索生育津贴的补贴细则,逐步优化生育税赋抵扣方案,提高公共服务供给质量和覆盖范围,保障就业女性的法律支持,避免职场歧视的发生,采取积极政策措施提升生育意愿。四是包容性生育政策的实施需要多元主体协同行动。为积极推进包容性生育政策的实施,本研究尝试提出四项行动策略,即营造生育友好型社会坏境、整合政府和市场多元主体、对接不同人群多样化需求以及增强包容性政策实现机制。提升生育意愿需要建构友好的物质环境,提供友好的设施、设备和空间,营造尊重生育主体的生育意愿、关心妇女儿童、重视和谐家庭等文化环境。包容性生育政策的实施与落实应重视不同人群的需求划分,提供更好的公共服务。在改变政策动员机制、改善政策运行机制、健全政策评估机制、增强政策宣传机制的基础上,全社会各利益相关方共同努力下提升人们的生育意愿。本文的创新点在于以下三个方面:一是采用扎根理论构建了生育意愿的影响因素模型。通过开放式编码、主轴编码和选择性编码对访谈资料进行提炼加工,逐步形成概念、范畴、主范畴以及核心范畴,在概念、范畴之间建立相互关系,建立的模型弥补了生育意愿影响因素破碎化的缺憾。采用政策工具理论、计划行为理论和成本收益理论对生育意愿影响因素进行理论性阐释,使模型构建更有理论依据。本研究发现影响因素包括个人因素、家庭因素、社会因素和政策因素。其中个人因素包括子女价值、性别偏好、保险状况等,家庭因素包括家庭成员照料、家人意见、经济地位、房产数量等,社会因素包括社会舆论和生育文化。政策因素为调节变量,能够调节个人因素、家庭因素和社会因素对生育意愿的作用。二是把生育政策引入模型,验证了生育政策对生育意愿的关键性影响。现有文献对生育政策进行分析往往采用历史分析、比较分析或内容分析的方法,文献的内容分析基本停留于生育政策的时间阶段和政策内容变迁。本研究把生育政策引入模型,并认为积极的政策宣传、高公共服务满意度、包容性生育政策的实施有利于三孩生育意愿的提升。三是将包容性理念应用于生育政策之中,建立了包容性生育政策体系。现有文献提出了诸多生育政策优化的措施,但整体上缺乏系统性。包容性理念的提出给生育政策提供了良好的框架,但包容性理念目前在我国还处于理想化状态,如何构建包容性政策体系还需要不断进行理论和实践探索。本研究认为包容性生育政策支持体系的构建应当从时间—经济—服务—就业四个方面入手,覆盖孕—生—养—教四个阶段。更多还原

【Abstract】 Presidennt Xi pointed out,“The problem of population is an overall and strategic question all along.”According to the data of the seventh national census,in 2020,the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China was 1.3,lower than the international population warning line of 1.5.In order to actively respond to the population problem,in May 2021,the state announced the implementation of the "three child policy",which has become the focus of academic and industry attention for a time.However,combined with practical observation,whether the comprehensive three child policy improves the fertility will as expected has not been determined.In reality,the factors affecting the fertility will are extremely complex.Relying solely on the liberalization of the fertility policy may not necessarily improve the fertility will.Therefore,it is necessary to further study the influencing factors of the fertility will of women of childbearing age.At the same time,the 14 th five-year plan proposes to "optimize fertility policies and enhance the inclusiveness of fertility policies".How to build inclusive fertility policies to better deal with the risk of continued decline in fertility levels and provide reference for promoting long-term balanced population development.Based on this,under the background of the "three-child policy",the influencing factors of women’s reproductive willingness were analyzed by the logic of "question raising-theoretical analysis-grounded theory and theoretical construction-research hypothesis-questionnaire design-data collection-hypothesis testing-results discussion-policy suggestions".On the basis of literature analysis,a model of influencing factors of fertility intention was constructed by using grounded theory,and theoretical tools such as planned behavior theory and cost-benefit theory were used to explain it.Empirical analysis was conducted through investigation and research.Questionnaire was designed to investigate and analyze the desire of women of childbearing age in Zhengzhou,so as to study the influencing factors under the new population policy.Finally,qualitative research data analysis tools were used to explore the evolution of fertility policy,and NVivo method was used to analyze the historical changes,policy objectives and policy content of fertility policy.Based on the concept of inclusive,build a comprehensive three children age inclusive fertility policy support system,bearing support system from the time-economy-service-job four aspects of employment,covering the pregnant-birth-nurture-teach four stages,and put forward the strategies of pluralistic social subject,in order to provide theoretical support for the perfection of the one child policy.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the influence of fertility policy on fertility intention includes personal factors,family factors and social factors.Among individual factors,internal cost has a significant negative impact on the willingness to have a third child,while security utility has a positive impact on the willingness to have a third child,while psychological utility has no significant effect.Since a family already has one or two children to satisfy its spiritual needs,when making a decision about a third child,it is more about the costs of childbirth and the benefits of old age.In terms of family factors,women tend to listen to their family members’ opinions.The higher the family’s economic status is,the more willing they are to have a third child.The higher the family’s economic status is,the more resources the family can provide to their children and the more human capital they can invest in their children.Among the social factors,public opinion positively affects women’s desire to have a third child,and women will be subjected to social pressure when deciding their reproductive behavior.The influence of fertility culture on the fertility intention of the third child is not significant,but the change of traditional fertility concept and the formation of modern fertility concept jointly impact the fertility intention of pregnant women.Secondly,as a moderating variable,policy factors can affect the prediction of other variables on the intention to have a third child.(1)From the perspective of policy advocacy,it can adjust the impact of family economic status,public opinion and fertility culture on the fertility intention of the third child.Policy publicity can strengthen the positive prediction of family economic status on fertility intention,weaken the positive prediction of public opinion on fertility intention,and strengthen the negative prediction of fertility culture on fertility intention of a third child.(2)From the perspective of public service satisfaction,public service satisfaction can adjust the impact of security utility,family opinion and family economic status on the intention to have a third child.Public service satisfaction can strengthen the positive prediction ability of security utility on the intention to have a third child,strengthen the positive prediction ability of family opinion on the intention to have a third child,and promote the positive prediction ability of family economic status on the intention to have a third child.(3)From the perspective of inclusive family policy,inclusive policy can adjust the impact of internal cost,psychological utility and family economic status on the willingness to have a third child.Inclusive policies can strengthen the negative predictive ability of internal cost on the intention to have a third child,turn the positive correlation between psychological utility and the intention to have a third child into a significant negative correlation,and strengthen the positive predictive ability of family economic status on the intention to have a third child.On the whole,positive policy publicity,high public service satisfaction and the implementation of inclusive family planning policies are conducive to the improvement of the desire to have a third child.Thirdly,the family planning policy needs to be more inclusive in terms of time,economy,services and employment.The construction of inclusive birth support system should start from four aspects of time,economy,service and employment,covering four stages of pregnancy,birth,upbringing and education,and establish a multidimensional birth policy support system.Government should strengthen the scientific,standardized and institutionalized birth holiday,actively explore birth allowance subsidy rules,tax deduction scheme optimization,gradually improve the quality of public service supply and coverage,ensuring that female employment law support,avoid discrimination in the workplace,take positive policies and measures to enhance fertility intentions.Fourthly,the implementation of inclusive fertility policy requires concerted action by multiple entities.In order to actively promote the implementation of the inclusive fertility policy,this study tries to put forward four action strategies,namely,creating a child-friendly social environment,integrating the government and the market,meeting the diverse needs of different groups,and strengthening the implementation mechanism of inclusive policy.To enhance the desire to have children,it is necessary to construct a friendly material environment,provide friendly facilities,equipment and space,and create a cultural environment that respects the desire of childbearing subjects,cares about women and children,and attaches importance to a harmonious family.The implementation of the inclusive fertility policy should pay attention to the needs of different groups to provide better public services.On the basis of changing the policy mobilization mechanism,improving the policy operation mechanism,perfecting the policy evaluation mechanism and enhancing the policy publicity mechanism,all stakeholders in the whole society should make joint efforts to enhance people’s willingness to bear children.The innovation of this paper lies in the following three aspects:The first is to use grounded theory to construct the influencing factors model of fertility intention.Open coding,spindle coding and selective coding were used to refine and process the interview data,gradually forming concepts,categories,main categories and core categories,establishing mutual relations between concepts and categories,and establishing the model to make up for the defect of the fragmentation of influencing factors of fertility intention.Policy tool theory,planned behavior theory and costbenefit theory are used to explain the influencing factors of fertility intention theoretically,so that the model construction has more theoretical basis.This study found that the influencing factors include personal factors,family factors,social factors and policy factors.Among them,personal factors include children’s value,gender preference and insurance status,family factors include family members’ care,family opinions,economic status and the number of houses,and social factors include public opinion and fertility culture.Policy factors are moderating variables,which can regulate the effects of individual factors,family factors and social factors on fertility intention.Secondly,the birth policy is introduced into the model to verify the key impact of birth policy on fertility intention.The existing literature often adopts the methods of historical analysis,comparative analysis or content analysis to analyze the fertility policy.Content analysis basically stays in the time stage and policy content change of birth policy.This study introduced birth policy into the model,and believed that positive policy publicity,high public service satisfaction,and the implementation of inclusive birth policy were conducive to the improvement of the desire to have a third child.Thirdly,the concept of inclusiveness should be applied to the family planning policy.Existing literature has put forward many measures to optimize the birth policy,but the overall lack of systematic,inclusive concept provides a good framework for the birth policy,but the inclusive concept is still in an ideal state in China,how to build inclusive policy system needs to continue theoretical and practical exploration.The construction of inclusive birth policy support system in this study should start from four aspects of time,economy,service and employment,covering four stages of pregnancy,birth,upbringing and education.更多还原