【作者】 王妍；

【导师】 王雅莉；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 国民经济结构调整,是我国进入新常态的常态性问题。依据国民经济运行供求均衡的最佳状态,在总量基本均衡的情况下主动地寻求结构均衡,是提升国民经济运行质量和效率从而保持最佳适度速度的最重要途径。国民经济结构的合理化和高度化制约着我国国民经济的发展质量,而国民经济结构优化的标志就是能够实现社会福利最大化的供求总量平衡状态下的供求结构均衡,这种供求结构均衡是在波动性的持续性的趋向均衡的发展过程中实现的。随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的深入发展,我国国民经济发展面临着重要的战略机遇和挑战,立足新发展阶段,贯彻新发展理念,在全面深化改革的背景下,用新发展理念持续优化国民经济结构是我国经济高质量发展的不竭动力。因此,研判我国供求结构的发展特征及趋势,把握国民经济结构优化调整的重点,是我们需要探索的重要课题。基于此,本文旨在探究供求均衡视角下国民经济结构优化的相关问题,目标是保持国民经济运行在合理的区间范围内。研究国民经济结构如何实现优化,本文重点关注以下三个问题:第一,供求均衡视角下我国的国民经济结构发展现状怎样,存在哪些问题,运用何种方法进行研究探讨?第二,国民经济结构优化的思路是什么,如何调整供求结构以实现国民经济结构的优化?第三,国民经济结构调整的重点是什么,结构优化的未来趋势怎样?基于以上问题,本文总体思路和章节安排如下。本文的总思路是:从保障和改善民生为出发点,以“十四五”时期供求结构研究为案例,采用ARIMA模型和C-D模型对“十四五”期间需求和供给的总量进行预测。从需求的角度,使用ARIMA模型预测我国“十四五”期间的消费、投资和净出口需求的总量及演化趋势。从供给的角度,结合C-D模型和ARIMA模型预测我国“十四五”期间意愿供给的总量及扩大再生产能力。最后,结合投入产出模型通过中间产品供求差率、最终产品供求差率和社会总产品供求差率三个层次来探讨我国供求结构,从而研判我国供求结构的特征及发展趋势,从中把握国民经济供求均衡调整的重点,探索国民经济供求结构调整的重点、优化路径和优化调整对策来实现优化国民经济结构的目的。本文共由八个章节组成,各章的主要内容如下:第一章为总论,首先依据选题背景提出问题,进而介绍本文的研究目的与研究意义,通过研究框架明晰全文结构,最后阐述了研究方法与创新点。第二章首先对国民经济及其结构、国民经济结构调整、总供求均衡、需求侧和供给侧相关概念进行了界定,其次梳理了国民经济结构相关的理论基础和文献综述,为研究供求结构优化调整提供依据和思路。理论基础部分本文依次梳理了经济增长与经济发展理论、供求均衡理论、产业结构理论、投入产出分析理论。文献综述部分对国民经济运行新常态、供给侧结构性改革、需求结构失衡及其影响、国民经济供求结构问题进行了阐述。第三章主要阐述了我国经济结构优化分析框架。首先沿序国民经济结构优化的思路,从界定出发点开始,持续讨论了国民经济结构优化的标志、原则和机制,在此基础上分别探讨了国民经济需求及其结构,国民经济供给及其结构,并分析了短期总量平衡的结构优化基础和长期平衡的结构优化保证,最后阐述了调节途径。第四章从需求的角度探索国民经济需求状态及演化趋势。首先分析了我国需求的状态,再采用ARIMA模型对我国“十四五”期间的消费、投资和净出口需求总量进行预测,并对我国消费需求、投资需求和净出口需求的发展特征及趋势进行阐述。第五章从供给的角度探索国民经济供给状态及演化趋势。首先分析了我国供给的状态,再结合C-D模型和ARIMA模型对我国“十四五”时期意愿供给的总量进行预测,并对我国意愿供给结构进行分析。第六章对我国供求结构的均衡进行分析。本章将第四章和第五章需求总量和供给总量的预测结果,带入投入产出模型,测算出“十四五”期间我国的供求差率,从42部门的整体结构来分析供求差率,从而研判我国供求结构的特征及发展趋势,从中把握国民经济供求均衡调整的重点。我国供求结构的均衡分析包括三部分内容:第一部分从需求的角度,分别对消费需求、投资需求和净出口需求对总产品结构的影响进行分析;第二部分从供给的角度,对供给的扩大再生产能力及各要素收益进行分析;第三部分结合投入产出模型通过三个层次来探索供求结构:第一个层次通过测算中间产品的供求差率来探索,第二个层次通过测算最终产品的供求差率来探索,第三个层次通过测算总产品的供求差率来探索,通过测算42部门整体结构的供求差率,总结出我国供求结构的特点及其发展趋势。第七章探讨了我国国民经济供求结构的优化调整。首先阐述了国民经济供求结构优化调整的重点,其次分析了供求结构的优化路径,最后提出我国国民经济供求结构优化调整对策。第八章对全文进行总结,并对我国国民经济结构的高质量发展予以展望。本文以“十四五”时期供求结构关系为案例,从供求均衡的视角来探讨国民经济结构如何实现优化,力求实现以下方面的创新:第一,力求实现对国民经济结构优化研究方法的创新。本文探讨国民经济结构的优化,是在供求均衡的视角下,为此需要在分别预测国民经济意愿需求和意愿供给的基础上分析总供求的均衡,然后再探讨国民经济结构的非均衡问题,最后给出实现国民经济结构优化的路径。本文以我国“十四五”期间的国民经济结构状态为例,综合运用预测模型、经济计量模型和投入产出模型对我国“十四五”的经济状态做了总量分析和结构分析。首先通过ARIMA模型和C-D模型分别对“十四五”期间的意愿总需求和意愿总供给进行预测,再运用投入产出模型推算出我国“十四五”期间总量和结构的供求差率,可为国民经济结构调整提供依据。这种通过测算总量和结构供求差率而探讨国民经济结构的研究比较匮乏,本文的研究尝试是一种创新。第二,力求实现运用系统分析方法研究国民经济结构关系,得到系统整体协调条件下的国民经济结构优化的重点。我国国民经济规模很大,结构复杂,方方面面的问题,需要一个整体系统的分析过程。通过系统分析,本文发现了我国“十四五”期间比较突出的结构性问题的表现,一是对中间产品供求差率的研究,结果表明:第二产业中的轻工业和中低端制造业部门的中间产品供大于求,第三产业中的公共管理、社会保障和社会组织的中间产品供不应求;二是对最终产品供求差率的研究,结果表明,金融业的消费需求是供过于求,而对为发展服务业和公共服务业的消费需求是供不应求;房地产业的投资需求是供过于求,而对第二产业的投资需求是供不应求;净出口需求对第二产业中例如石化、建筑、水电等部门产品的出口需求是供不应求,而第三产业中的新兴服务部门的产品的国外净出口需求是供不应求。这些系统分析的结论,具有创新意义。第三,力求实现创新性地去探讨国民经济结构优化的次序、原则和机制。依据本文的研究逻辑次序,国民经济结构优化的次序是按照消费需求-投资需求-净出口需求-中间需求-总需求-总供给-短期供给结构-长期供给结构的次序进行。与此相适应,国民经济结构优化的原则是:消费需求是国民经济结构优化的出发点和归宿;产业结构协调发展是国民经济结构优化的基础和条件;技术进步是国民经济结构优化的动力和保障。国民经济结构优化的机制,分为生产关系和生产力两个方面。生产关系方面,要以市场机制发挥主要作用,经济体制改革和政府政策引导发挥重要的调控作用来加快转变经济发展方式;生产力方面,要通过科技进步和创新这一根本途径来实现国民经济结构的优化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The adjustment of national economic structure is a normal problem for China to enter the new normal.It is the most important way to improve the quality and efficiency of national economy operation and maintain the optimal and appropriate speed to actively seek structural equilibrium under the condition of the basic equilibrium of total quantity according to the optimal state of supply and demand in national economy operation.National economy structure rationally and highly quality restricts the development of the national economy,and the symbol of national economy structure optimization is to maximize the social welfare of the aggregate balance of supply and demand condition of the structure of supply and demand equilibrium,the equilibrium is a sustainable trend in fluctuation of balanced development in the process of implementation.With the further development of a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution,the development of national economy in our country is faced with important strategic opportunities and challenges,based on the new stage of development,carry out new development concept,under the background of comprehensively deepen reform,with a new idea continuously optimize structure of the national economy development is the driving force of high quality and economic development in our country.Therefore,to study and judge the development characteristics and trends of China’s supply and demand structure and grasp the focus of the optimization and adjustment of the national economic structure is an important subject that we need to explore.Based on this,this paper aims to explore the issues related to the optimization of national economic structure from the perspective of supply and demand equilibrium,with the goal of keeping the national economy running within a reasonable range.To study how to optimize the national economic structure,this paper focuses on the following three issues:First,what is the current situation of the development of China’s national economic structure from the perspective of equilibrium between supply and demand,what problems exist and what methods are used to discuss it?Second,what is the idea of optimizing the national economic structure?How to adjust the structure of supply and demand to realize the optimization of the national economic structure?Third,what is the focus of restructuring the national economy?Based on the above problems,the general idea and chapter arrangement of this paper are as follows.The general idea of this paper is as follows:starting from ensuring and improving people’s livelihood,taking the research on supply and demand structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period as a case,using ARIMA model and C-D model to forecast the total demand and supply during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.From the perspective of demand,the ARIMA model is used to predict the total consumption,investment and net export demand and its evolution trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan period of China.From the perspective of supply,C-D model and ARIMA model are combined to predict the total amount of willing supply and its evolution trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in China.Finally,combine input-output model by intermediate product of supply and demand rate,final product rate of supply and demand and social total supply and demand rate three levels to explore the structure of supply and demand in China,thus to our country characteristic and developing trend of supply and demand structure,to grasp the focus of the national economy adjust supply and demand balance,to explore the focus of the national economy structure adjustment of supply and demand,optimizing the path and the optimized countermeasures to achieve the purpose of optimizing the structure of the national economy.This paper is composed of eight chapters.The main contents of each chapter are as follows:The first chapter is an overview.It first raises questions according to the background of the topic,then introduces the purpose and significance of the research,clarifies the structure of the full text through the research framework,and finally expounds the research methods and innovation points.The second chapter firstly defines the concepts related to national economy and its structure,adjustment of national economy structure,total supply and demand equilibrium,demand side and supply side.Secondly,it sorts out the theoretical basis and literature review related to the study of national economy structure,so that it can be applied in the follow-up study of optimization and adjustment countermeasures.In the part of theoretical foundation,this paper sorted out the economic growth and economic development theory,supply and demand equilibrium theory,industrial structure theory,input-output analysis theory.In the literature review part,the new normal of national economy operation,the supply-side structural reform,the imbalance of demand structure and its impact,and the supply-demand structure of national economy are expounded.The third chapter mainly elaborated our country economic structure optimization analysis framework.Following the way of thinking in optimizing the structure of the national economy,starting from defining the starting point,continue to the symbol of national economy structure optimization are discussed,principle and mechanism,and on this basis,respectively discusses the requirements of the national economy and its structure,the supply of the national economy and its structure,and structural optimization basis of short-term aggregate balance and the structural optimization guarantee of long-term balance,finally expounds the adjustment way.The fourth chapter explores the state and evolution trend of national economic demand from the point of view of demand.Firstly,the state of China’s demand is analyzed,and then the ARIMA model is used to forecast the total consumption,investment and net export demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period of China,and the development characteristics and trends of China’s consumption demand,investment demand and net export demand are expounded.The fifth chapter explores the supply state and evolution trend of national economy from the perspective of supply.This paper first analyzes the state of China’s supply,and then predicts the total amount of China’s willing supply in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan by combining C-D model and ARIMA model,and analyzes the structure of China’s willing supply.Chapter six analyzes the equilibrium of supply and demand structure in China.This chapter will be the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter of the total supply and total demand forecast as a result,to the input-output model,calculate the rate of the supply and demand in China during the period of "difference",from the overall structure of the 42 departments to analyze the rate of supply and demand,thus to our country characteristic and developing trend of supply and demand structure,to grasp the focus of the national economy adjust the balance of supply and demand.The equilibrium analysis of China’s supply and demand structure includes three parts:The first part analyzes the impact of consumption demand,investment demand and net export demand on the total product structure from the perspective of demand;The second part analyzes the expanding reproduction capacity of supply and the income of each factor from the perspective of supply.The third part combines input-output model to explore the structure of supply and demand on three levels:first level by rate of intermediate product of supply and demand,the second level by measuring the rate of supply and demand of the end product to explore,third level by measuring the total product rate of supply and demand to explore,by measuring the rate of supply and demand of the whole structure of 42 departments,summarizes the characteristics of the structure of supply and demand in China and its development trend.Chapter seven discusses the optimization and adjustment of supply and demand structure of our national economy.Firstly,it expounds the key points of the optimization and adjustment of the structure of supply and demand of the national economy,then it analyzes the optimization path of the structure of supply and demand,and finally puts forward the countermeasures of the optimization and adjustment of the structure of supply and demand of the national economy.The eighth chapter summarizes the whole paper and looks forward to the higher quality development of China’s national economic structure.This paper takes the supply-demand structure relationship in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan as a case,discusses how to optimize the national economic structure from the perspective of supply-demand equilibrium,and strives to achieve innovation in the following aspects:First,make every effort to realize the innovation of the research method of optimizing the national economic structure.In this paper,the optimization of national economic structure is discussed from the perspective of supply and demand equilibrium.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the balance of total supply and demand on the basis of predicting the desired demand and desired supply of national economy respectively,and then discuss the disequilibrium problem of national economic structure.Finally,the path of realizing the optimization of national economic structure is given.In this paper,the state of national economic structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is taken as an example,and the aggregate analysis and structure analysis are made by using the forecast model,econometric model and input-output model to the economic state during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Firstly,the ARIMA model and C-D model are used to forecast the desired total demand and desired total supply during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,and then ues the input-output model to calculate the rate of the gap between supply and demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,which can provide a basis for the adjustment of the national economic structure.The research on the structure of national economy by measuring the difference between supply and demand of total quantity and structure is relatively scarce.The research attempt of this paper is a kind of innovation.Second,we should try our best to use systematic analysis method to study the relationship of national economic structure and get the key point of the optimization of national economic structure under the condition of the overall coordination of the system.The scale of China’s national economy is very large,the structure is complex,all aspects of the problem,need a whole system analysis process.Through system analysis,this paper found that the more outstanding structural problems in China during the period of"difference",one is the intermediate product of supply and demand gap of the research results show that the secondary industry in light industry and low-end manufacturing sector in the middle of the product supply,the third industry in the public management,social security and social organizations in the middle of the products in short supply;Second,the research results of the gap between the supply and demand of final products show that the consumer demand of the financial industry is oversupplied,while the consumer demand for the development of service industry and public service industry is oversupplied.The investment demand of the real estate industry is oversupplied,while the investment demand of the secondary industry is oversupplied.Net export demand for the secondary industry,such as petrochemical,construction,hydropower and other sectors of the export demand is short of supply,while the tertiary industry in the emerging service sector of the foreign net export demand is short of supply.The conclusions of these systematic analyses are of innovative significance.Thirdly,we should try our best to explore the order,principle and mechanism of the optimization of national economic structure innovatively.According to the logical order of the research in this paper,the order of national economic structure optimization is carried out in the order of consumption demand-investment demand-net export demandintermediate demand-total demand-total supply-short-term supply structure-long-term supply structure.In accordance with this,the principle of the optimization of national economic structure is as follows:consumption demand is the starting point and destination of the optimization of national economic structure;The coordinated development of industrial structure is the basis and condition of the optimization of national economic structure.Technological progress is the driving force and guarantee for the optimization of national economic structure.The mechanism of optimizing the structure of national economy is divided into two aspects:relations of production and productive forces.In terms of relations of production,the market mechanism should play a major role,and the reform of the economic system and the guidance of government policies should play an important regulatory role to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development.In terms of productivity,the optimization of national economic structure should be realized through scientific and technological progress and innovation.更多还原