【作者】 杨静；

【导师】 孙毅中；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 中国正处于快速城市化发展阶段,面对城市空间扩张的需求性和可持续发展的必要性,城市发展面临着巨大的挑战。然而,土地利用变化过程的模拟与分析有助于了解城市发展的驱动机制,洞察城市发展的未来走向,实现城市发展的精细化管理,提升城市发展的质量。矢量CA(Cellular Automata)模型具有强大的运算能力、简单的建模原理、以及对城市空间结构表达的客观性与准确性等优点,已被广泛应用于模拟城市空间的土地利用变化。但是现有矢量CA模型的研究忽视了城市土地利用变化是由城市群、城市和地块区域协同驱动下发生的事实,存在“层次单一性”、“层次分离性”、“均质平原假定性”等问题。因此,如何构建多层次土地利用变化驱动体系?剖析多层次体系内的分层异质性及其耦合作用机制?挖掘区域协同下的多层次用地转换规则?等问题亟待探究。这些问题的研究与解决可望构建一个更精确的矢量CA模型,为城市空间规划提供科学的决策支持。针对以上问题,本研究以“矢量CA体系构建”—“分层异质性分析”—“转换规则获取”—“多层次矢量CA建模”为研究主线,在深入分析驱动城市空间变化层级的基础上,利用点、线、面三大要素,动态抽象表达城市演变的矢量CA结构,利用自适应核密度等方法,识别多层次驱动体系内结构、等级和功能的分层异质性,获取顾及层次协同性和空间分异性的多层次转换规则,建立了一个多层次矢量CA模型。本文主要研究内容与结论如下:(1)区域协同下的多层次矢量元胞体系建立针对传统矢量CA模型“层次单一性”和“层次分离性”问题,基于城市土地利用变化是由区域协同作用下发生的事实,确定了“城市群—城市(市域—片区—单元)—地块”多层次土地利用变化驱动体系,利用点、线、面三大要素动态抽象表达了驱动体系内的驱动单元与驱动要素,利用图论法和CA模型,构建了一个表征土地利用变化驱动过程的多层次矢量CA结构,基于多层次体系横向上的连通性和纵向上的传递性,探究了多层次CA结构内土地利用变化驱动机制。(2)多层次CA体系的结构、等级、功能分层异质性量化表达针对“均质平原假定性”问题,利用城市综合空间发展指数和空间引力模型,顾及驱动结构的分层异质性,计算了结构内横向元胞单元间的动态驱动力,量化了纵向层次间驱动力差异性分解过程;结合小波法和核密度估计法,提出了一种顾及空间局部特征的自适应核密度算法,基于城市空间发展等级的空间分异性,将城市空间有效的划分为城市中心区、内边缘区、外边缘区和乡村腹地四个不同发展等级区域;利用地理空间分析法,结合城市主体功能划定和生态功能划定,分析了城市空间功能定位的空间分异性特征,制定了城市空间开发的优先度。(3)顾及分层异质性与层次协同性的多层次矢量CA建模顾及多层次驱动结构内横向驱动力与纵向分解规则的分层异质性,获得了每个地块的多层次空间驱动效应;顾及地块平面邻域空间结构和空间功能定位的异质性,本文设计了一个立体邻域效应函数;顾及不同发展等级区域内用地演变规律的空间分异性,利用Markov-Chain分区计算不同发展等级区内用地初始转换概率;耦合多层次空间驱动效应、地块邻域效应和分区初始转换概率,构建了区域协同下的多层次用地转换规则,并建立了一个基于分层异质性的多层次矢量CA模型。(4)江阴市土地利用变化模拟与多情景预测选取长三角区域内的江阴市为研究区,模拟2012-2017年江阴市的土地利用变化,利用OA(Overall Accuracy)、Kappa和Fo M(Figure of Merit)指标将其与真实数据进行对比分析,证明了本模型的有效性与实用性。模拟分析发现,江阴市是一个以内部驱动为主(片区区域层次、单元区域层次和地块区域层次的驱动)和外部推动为辅(城市群区域层次和市域区域层次的驱动)的自主发展式城市。通过预测分析六种扩张模式下江阴市未来10年的发展趋势,本文提出了为构建“北部沿江聚集片区和南部生态开敞片区”的空间格局,其接下来必须实施“填充-蔓延-跳跃式”或者“填充-跳跃-蔓延式”城市扩张模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the stage of rapid urbanization development,China is facing with huge challenges under the demand of urban space expansion and necessity of sustainable development.However,the simulation and analysis of land-use change process is helpful to understand the driving mechanism of urban development,insight the future direction of urban development,achieve fine management of urban development,and improve the quality of urban development.Vector CA(Cellular Automata)model has the advantage of stronge somputing power,simple modeling principle,and objectivity and accuracy of urban spatial structure expression,which has been widely used to simulate land-use changes.However,the existing vector CA model ignores the fact that urban land-use change is driven by the regional coordination of urban agglomeration,city and parcel,and there are some problems such as “single-level”,“separation level” and “homogeneous plain hypothesis”.Therefore,the following issuses need to be explored:(1)How to build a multi-hierarchy driving system of land-use change?(2)How to explore the stratified heterogeneity and its mechanism within the multi-hiererchy system?(3)How to mine the multi-hierachy land-use transition rules under regional coorperation? And others.The research and solution of these issuses are expected to build an all-round,overall-process and wholesystem vector CA model to provide scientific decision support for urban spatial planning.In view of the above problems,this study takes “vector CA system construction”-“stratified heterogeneity analysis”-“transition rule acquisition”-“multi-hierarchy vector CA modelling” as the main research line.On the basis of in-depth analysis of the driving hierarchies of urban spatial change,the vector CA model structure describing urban evolution was dynamically abstract expressed by using three elements of point,line and surface.Applying adaptive-kernel density estimation method and other methods,the stratified heterogenity of structure,fuction and level within multi-hierarchy driving system were identified.Taking consideration of the hierarchy regional coordination and stratified heterogenity,the multi-hierechy transition rules were mined to construct a multihierarchy vector CA model.The main research contents and conclusion are as follows:(1)Estabilishment of multi-hierarchy vector CA system under regional cooperationAmining at the problems of “single-level” and “separation level” of traditional vector CA model,and based on the fact that the urban land-use change is driven by multihierarchy coordination,this study determined the “reginal-city(city-district-unit)-parcel”multi-hierarchy system of land-use change.The driving units and elements within the driving system were abstracted expressed by three elements of point,line and surface,which is combined with graphy theory to construct a multi-hierarchy vector CA model to display the driving process of lan-use change.Bsed on the horizontal connectivity and vertical transitivity of this driving system,we explored the driving mechanism of landuse change within the multi-hierarchy CA structure.(2)Quantitative expression of stratified heterogenity of structure,level and function within multi-hierarchy CA systemAiming at the problem of “homogeneous plain hypothesis”,by using urban comprehensive spatial development index and spatial gravity model and considering the stratified heterogenity of driving structure,the dynamic driving forces between horizontal cell units within the structure were calculated and the differential decomposition process of those driving forces between vertical hierarchies were quantified.Combining with wavelet method and kernel density estimation metod,we proposed an adaptive-kernel density estimation metod considering the spatial local characteristics.Based on the spatial heterogeneity of urban spatial development level,the proposed adaptive-kernel density estimation metod was applied to effectively divide the urban space into four different development level regions,namely,urban centers,inner urban-rural fringes,outer urbanrural fringes and rural hinterland.Using geospatial analysis method,this paper combined the urban major fuction zones and ecological function zones to analyze the spatial heterogenity of urban spatial fuction positioning,and formulated the priority of urban spatial development.(3)Multi-hierarchy vector CA modeling considering stratified heterogenity and hierarchy coordinationConsidering the stratified heterogenity of horizontal driving forces and vertical decomposition rules within the multi-heirarchy driving structure,the multi-heirarchy spatial driving effect of each parcel was obtained;considering the heterogenity of spatial structure and spatial fuction positioning of the neighborhood of each parcel,we designed an effect function of three-dimensional neighborhood;considering the heterogenity of land-use transition rules in different development level regions,the initial land-use transition probabilities of each regions were calculated by using Markov-Chain;finally,coupling multi-hierarchy spatial driving effect,neighborhood effect and partition initial transition probability,the multi-hierarchy land-use transition rules under cooperation were constructued,which were applied to establish a multi-hierarchy vector CA model considering stratified heterogeneity.(4)Land-use change simulation and multi-scenario prediction in Jiangyin CityJiangyin City in Yangtze River Delta region was selected as the research area to simulate the land-use changes from 2012 to 2017,which was applied to compare with the actual data by using OA(Overall Accuracy),Kappa and Fo M(Figure of Merit).The comparision and analysis was certificated that the model is effective and applicable.In addition,the analysis of simulation indicated that Jiangyin City is a self-developed city,whose development was mainly drived by inner factors(the driving of district regional hierarchy,unit regional hierarchy and parcel regional hierarchy)and supplemented by external factors(the driving of urban agglomeration regional hierarchy and city regional hierarchy).By predicting and analyzing the development trend of Jiangyin City in the next 10 years inder six different expansion modes,this paper proposed that in order to construct the spatial pattern of “the northern riverside agglomeration area and the southern ecological open area”,it is necessary to implement the expansion modes “fillingspreading-jumping” or “filling-jumping-spreading” in the next years.更多还原