【作者】 刘玉萍；

【导师】 郑长德；

【作者基本信息】 西南民族大学 ， 民族学， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,我国民族地区的高铁快速发展,区域交通可达性显著提升。随着高铁的开通,劳动力和资本等生产要素加速流动从而资源配置效率改善,而区域一体化进程加快也促使城市的空间格局发生演变,这些由高铁引致的变化终将对民族地区的经济社会发展产生长期而深远的影响。自党的十九大首次提出“我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段”的论断之后,高质量发展相关议题一直广受关注,近期更是被确定为“十四五”乃至更长时期我国经济社会发展的主题,这意味着,民族地区未来相当长时期的发展也必须紧紧围绕高质量发展这个主题。那么,高铁会为发展基础相对较差的民族地区的高质量发展助力吗?一方面,人们期待“火车一响,黄金万两”,高铁能发挥对高质量发展的积极作用从而助推民族地区实现高质量发展的“追赶”,但另一方面,人们又担忧“高铁一通,人去楼空”,高铁可能引发大城市对中小城市的虹吸效应甚而对民族地区中小城市的高质量发展不利。针对以上期待和担忧,本文对“高铁对民族地区高质量发展的影响及异质性”展开研究。除绪论和文献综述外,本文的具体研究思路为:首先,对民族地区交通基础设施发展的现状,民族地区高铁发展的特征,以及高铁与民族地区经济社会发展的关系进行了统计分析;然后,基于2006-2017年民族八省区50个地级城市的样本数据,以劳动、资本和政府投入为投入变量,新发展理念下的“五大”发展理念指标为产出变量,采用Fare-Primont指数法测算全要素生产率,对民族地区地级城市的高质量发展进行测度,并从动态变化和区域差异两个方面对高质量发展状况进行比较分析;接着,在高铁与民族地区高质量发展相关性分析的基础上,采用渐进性双重差分模型,对高铁对民族地区高质量发展的整体影响及来源,不同维度发展质量的影响,以及影响的动态性进行实证检验;最后,从发展条件、地理区位和交通状况三个方面,对高铁对民族地区高质量发展影响的异质性进行实证检验。对于以上研究内容,本文主要得出以下结论:(1)从公路交通和航空交通的发展看,民族地区现阶段仍是我国交通基础设施发展的“洼地”;民族地区的高铁发展呈现出明显的省际差异,高铁发展规划、高铁开通成本、经济发展水平、经济规模以及人口密度均可能是高铁设站城市选择的重要依据;高铁开通不仅在民族地区经济增长,产业发展,居民收入差距改善等经济发展方面发挥积极作用,还会产生许多非经济影响。(2)2006-2017年,民族地区全要素生产率的波动可分为三个阶段,其中2011年之前全要素生产率的下降主要是受技术进步下降的影响,而2011年之后全要素生产率的波动则源于技术进步和资源配置效率的共同作用;2006-2017年,民族八省区省际高质量发展呈明显收敛的趋势;从“五大”发展理念看,民族地区城市间高质量发展的差异主要来自于创新发展和开放发展。(3)从统计分析看,高铁与民族地区的整体高质量发展和不同维度的高质量发展均具有正相关性,但二者的相关性因区域、高铁开通时间而异;整体而言,以不同变量测度的高铁发展水平对民族地区城市高质量发展均具有显著的正向影响,且高铁对民族地区城市高质量发展的积极影响主要源于其对科技进步和规模经济的促进作用;从新发展理念的“五大”发展维度看,高铁对民族地区城市高质量发展的影响主要表现为其对创新发展和绿色发展的积极作用;从动态性看,高铁对民族地区城市高质量发展的影响具有一定的时滞,时滞期约为开通后的前三年。(4)高铁对高质量发展的影响因经济规模、产业结构和财政压力等城市发展的基础条件而异,且经济规模越大、第三产业占比越高,高铁对高质量发展的积极作用越小,而财政压力越大,高铁对高质量发展的积极影响越大;不同地理区位的城市,高铁对高质量发展具有不同的影响,相对于省会(区域中心)城市,高铁对非省会(中小)城市的影响更显著,与内陆民族地区相比,高铁对边疆民族地区城市的积极作用更大;就高质量发展而言,高铁交通也表现出规模经济的特征,即高铁网络密度越高,其对民族地区高质量发展的正向影响越大。从以上研究结论可知,对于前文提到的期待和担忧:首先,如人们所期待,高铁确实对民族地区的高质量发展产生了积极影响;其次,不必过于担忧,尽管高铁对民族地区高质量发展的影响存在异质性,但似乎对发展基础相对较差的城市更“友好”。整体而言,本文的研究结果为通过高铁助推民族地区的高质量发展,尤其是助推发展相对较差的民族地区中小城市的高质量发展提供了经验证据。同以往研究相比,本文的研究在研究视角——探讨高铁对高质量发展的影响而非仅仅关注高铁的产出效应,研究对象——主要基于民族地区城市层面数据而非仅仅省级层面数据进行实证分析,以及研究方法——采用具有动态可比性优势的Fare-Primont指数法测算的全要素生产率表征高质量发展,采用渐进性双重差分模型进行实证研究等三个方面有自己的特色。但同时,由于数据所限,本文在使用Fare-Primont指数法测度高质量发展时,产出指标选取相对单一,在实证检验之后,也未进一步检验高铁影响高质量发展的机制,未来的研究则可从这两个方面进一步扩展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the high-speed railway in China’s ethnic areas has developed rapidly,and the accessibility of regional transportation has been significantly improved.With the opening of the high-speed railway,the accelerated flow of production factors such as labor and capital has improved the efficiency of resource allocation,and the acceleration of the regional integration process has also promoted the evolution of the urban spatial pattern.These changes caused by the high-speed railway will eventually has a long-term and far-reaching impact on the economic and social development of ethnic areas.Since the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China first put forward the conclusion that China’s economy has changed from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high quality development,issues related to high quality development have received widespread attention.Recently,it has been identified as the theme of China’s economic and social development in the 14 th Five-Year Plan and even in a longer period.It means that the development of ethnic areas in the future for quite a long time must also focus on the theme of high quality development.So,will high-speed railway help high quality development in ethnic areas with relatively poor development foundation? On the one hand,people expect that once the train rings,there will be ten thousand taels of gold and the high-speed railway can play a positive role in high quality development and help ethnic areas to achieve high quality development.But on the other hand,people are worried that once the high-speed railway links,people will be empty.High speed railway may cause siphon effect of big cities on small and medium-sized cities,even to the high quality development of small and medium-sized cities in ethnic areas.In response to the above expectations and concerns,this paper studies the impact and heterogeneity of high-speed railway on the high quality development in ethnic areas.In addition to the introduction and literature review,the specific research ideas of this paper are as follows.Firstly,this paper makes a statistical analysis on the current situation of transportation infrastructure development in ethnic areas,the characteristics of high-speed railway development,and the relationship between high-speed railway and economic and social development in ethnic areas.Then,based on the sample data of 50 prefecture-level cities in eight ethnic provinces from 2006 to2017,with labor,capital and government input as input variables and five development concept indicators under the new development concept as output variables,this paper measures the high quality development of prefecture level cities in ethnic areas by using Fare-Primont index method,and compares and analyzes the high quality development from two aspects: dynamic changes and regional differences.Thirdly,on the basis of the correlation analysis between high-speed railway and high quality development in ethnic areas,this paper uses the progressive Difference-in-Differences(DID)model to empirically test the overall impact and source of high-speed railway on high quality development in ethnic areas,the impact of different dimensions of development quality,and dynamics of the impact.Finally,this paper empirically tests the heterogeneity of the impact of high-speed railway on high quality development in ethnic areas from three aspects of development conditions,geographical location and traffic conditions.For the above research content,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)From the development of highway traffic and air traffic,ethnic areas are still depressions for the development of China’s transportation infrastructure.The development of high-speed railway in ethnic areas shows obvious inter-provincial differences.High-speed railway development plans,high-speed railway opening costs,economic development level,economic scale,and population density may all be important basis for selecting cities for high-speed railway stations.The opening of the high-speed railway will not only play a positive role in economic growth,industrial development,and improvement of the income gap among residents in ethnic areas,but it will also have many non-economic impacts.(2)From 2006 to 2017,the fluctuation of Total factor productivity(TFP)in ethnic areas can be divided into three stages.The decline of TFP before 2011 is mainly affected by the decline of technological progress,while the fluctuation of TFP after 2011 is due to the joint effect of technological progress and resource allocation efficiency.From 2006 to 2017,the inter-provincial high quality development of the eight ethnic provinces showed an obvious convergence trend.From the perspective of the five development concepts,the differences in high quality development among cities in ethnic areas mainly come from innovative development and open development.(3)From a statistical analysis,high-speed railway has a positive correlation with the overall high quality development of ethnic areas and high quality development in different dimensions,but the correlation between the two differs depending on the region and the opening time of the high-speed railway.On the whole,the development level of high-speed railway measured by different variables has a significant positive impact on the high quality development of cities in ethnic areas,and the positive impact of high-speed railway on the high quality development of cities in ethnic areas is mainly due to its role in promoting technological innovation and economies of scale.From the five development dimensions of the new development concept,the impact of high-speed railway on the high quality development of cities in ethnic areas is mainly manifested in its positive effects on innovation and green development.From the perspective of dynamics,the impact of high-speed railway on the high quality development of cities in ethnic areas has a certain time lag,which is about the first three years after the opening.(4)The impact of high-speed railway on high quality development varies with the basic conditions of urban development,such as economic scale,industrial structure and financial pressure.The larger the economic scale and the higher the proportion of tertiary industry,the smaller the positive effect of high-speed railway on high quality development,while the greater the financial pressure,the greater the positive impact of high-speed railway on high quality development.High-speed railway has different influence on high quality development in cities with different geographical locations.Compared with the provincial capital(regional center)cities,high-speed railway has more significant impact on non-provincial capital(small and medium-sized)cities.Compared with inland ethnic areas,high-speed railway has a greater positive effect on the cities in border ethnic areas.As for the high quality development,the high-speed railway transportation also exhibits the characteristics of economies of scale,that is,the higher the density of high-speed railway network,the greater its positive impact on the high quality development of ethnic areas.From the above research conclusions,we can see that for the expectations and concerns mentioned above: First,as people expect,high-speed railway does have a positive impact on the high quality development of ethnic areas.Secondly,there is no need to worry too much.Although the impact of high-speed railway on high quality development in ethnic minority areas is heterogeneous,it seems to be more friendly to cities with relatively poor development foundation.On the whole,the results of this paper provide empirical evidence for promoting the high quality development in ethnic areas through high-speed railway,especially in small and medium-sized cities in ethnic areas where development is relatively poor.Compared with previous studies,this study has its own characteristics in three aspects: research perspective,research object and research method.From the perspective of research,this paper discusses the impact of high-speed railway on high quality development,rather than just focusing on the output effect of high-speed railway.The research object is mainly based on the layer and area data of cities in ethnic regions,not only the provincial level data.The research method is to use the total factor productivity measured by the Fare-Primont index method with the advantage of dynamic comparability to represent the high quality development,and to use the progressive DID model for empirical research.But at the same time,due to data limitations,when using the Fare-Primont index method to measure high quality development,the selection of output indicators is relatively single.After empirical testing,the mechanism by which high-speed railway affects high quality development is not further tested.Future research It can be further expanded from these two aspects.更多还原