【作者】 刘茜；

【导师】 刘子先； 杜慧滨；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 水资源短缺与大气污染为全球实现可持续发展目标过程中的重大挑战。其中,中国面临严重的水资源短缺与大气污染问题,但却拥有全球18%的人口。节约水资源与治理大气污染为中国面临的两大重要任务,为此,中国政府发布多项严厉措施,例如大气十条、水十条,分别致力于降低颗粒物浓度提升空气质量、提升用水效率。但应注意到,区域之间并不相互独立,尽管经济生产活动或某项政策措施的实施往往对本地具有积极的正向效果,但却可能给他地带来负面的溢出影响。例如,区域间在比较优势、政策或其他因素等影响下,产生贸易活动,使得环境影响或资源消耗在商品生产或消耗地分离,即本地商品消耗带来他地的资源环境影响。在此情况下,贸易使得全国的资源或环境目标的实现受到挑战。类似地,产业转移政策将工业生产活动转移到其他地区的同时,也将大气污染转移到其他地区。因此,本论文旨在评估资源环境影响(水资源、大气污染)的区域间转移与相互影响关系,从而为如何有效实现水资源节约、大气污染减排提供有效的政策建议。水资源隐含在商品贸易中,即“隐含水贸易”,而日益显著的全球与区域生产分工将重塑区域间隐含水贸易。本论文第一部分针对水-经济系统,旨在评估生产分工如何影响区域水利用的空间重新分布,及区域间水资源利用的溢出效应(以隐含水贸易刻画)。本部分利用改进的多区域投入产出分析方法,将区域间贸易按照产品的不同生产阶段划分为最终品贸易、中间品贸易与价值链贸易,可用于量化不同生产阶段的隐含水量,分析区域间水利用的溢出影响大小,即隐含水贸易量与隐含水流动方向,并最终刻画贸易对于全国水利用的影响。结果显示,隐含水主要由欠发达的内陆地区通过不同的贸易形式流向较发达的沿海地区,而全国水利用在有贸易情形下较无贸易增加,且价值链贸易对于该增长量的贡献占比最大。为节约全国水资源量,通过识别重点地区及相应的贸易形式、部门(包括农业、电力、化工等部门)实现更有效地节约。本部分结果发现强调在未来水资源管理、水资源利用责任分担等方面将贸易类型、水资源稀缺性考虑进来,以提升政策有效性。如第一部分所阐述,能源部门作为重要的用水大户,节水潜力巨大,第二部分关注能源用水。本部分旨在探究区域用水溢出效应给能源需求与水资源利用带来的脆弱性,这对能水协同管理具有重要意义。类似第一部分,这里溢出效应以隐含水贸易刻画。基于第一部分研究框架,涵盖五个能源部门,即电力、石油加工、煤炭开采、油气开采、燃气生产,测算能源需求的水足迹、稀缺水占比与进口集中度,评估能源需求驱动的隐含水贸易对区域水资源稀缺性的影响。结果显示,沿海与北部地区的能源需求水足迹中近50%为稀缺水,可能面临较高的脆弱性;黄河流域与西南地区的省份面临物理性缺水或社会性缺水,隐含水贸易导致其稀缺性增加。相应地,为缓解该类地区水稀缺性,识别主要的能源需求类型、隐含水贸易流与直接或间接相关部门,进一步通过可再生能源电力替代火力发电的情景分析,指出可再生能源对当地的水压力缓解潜力较有限,低于14%。本部分结果指出在能水协同管理中针对不同能源需求类型,考虑跨区域水资源利用与水资源稀缺性的重要性。上述两部分研究应用自顶向下的投入产出分析框架,从全生产链视角出发量化区域间水利用的溢出效应大小并评估其影响,不同的是,第三部分将重点考虑个体异质性与行为,采用自底向上的测算框架,评估区域产业转移政策的带来的大气污染区域间溢出效应大小,识别对整体层面(转入转出地之和)的大气污染影响。本部分以京津冀钢铁厂搬迁为例,构建钢铁厂搬迁前后大气污染物排放数据库,采用自底向上的测算方法,设置装置大型化、超低排放改造等多情景,量化钢铁厂搬迁前后对迁入迁出地的大气污染排放及整体层面影响。结果显示,京津冀钢铁厂搬迁为整体带来污染物减排的正向效益,且对其他地区的负面影响较小。其中唐山市与邯郸市最主要的减排城市,烧结与高炉为主要减排过程,短流程的电炉炼钢较长流程转炉炼钢具有节约直接与间接排放的潜力;同时,结果指出钢铁行业在搬迁过程中促进产业升级。该部分结果与第一部分结果相反,强调搬迁过程中技术改造、设备更新等对于实现当地与整体层面双重减排效益的重要性,本研究为其他发展中国家解决其重工业发展带来的重点地区环境污染问题提供较好的研究案例。更多还原

【Abstract】 At the global scale,water shortage and air pollution have presented significant challenges to achieving Sustainable Development Goals(SDG)of United Nations.China is one of the many nations,which suffers from severe water scarcity and air pollution,meanwhile accommodating 18% of the total population globally.Therefore,it is an urgent task for China to save water resources and to mitigate air pollution.The Chinese government has released the most stringent policies,e.g.Air Action Plan 2013 and Water Action Plan 2015,committing to reducing the PM concentration and to improving water use efficiency.Despite favorable effects of these policies and measures to achieve local targets,unintended consequences should not be overlooked when spillover effects occur.One typical example is that the trade activities are driven by comparative advantage,policies and other factors,resulting in the displacement of environmental impacts or resource depletion between production and consumption.As a result,trade activities are not necessarily in favor of achieving the national targets.Similarly,the industrial production relocation among regions would cause the relocation of air pollution relocation as well.Therefore,this dissertation researcher aims to evaluate the displacement of environmental impacts(water use or air pollution)virtually or physically.Results will provide new insights to effectively achieve the goals in water saving or air pollution mitigation.Water was embodied in traded goods,i.e.“virtual water trade”(VWT),which was largely influenced by global and regional trend of fragmentation in production.Focusing on the watereconomic system in the first study,this dissertation researcher aimed to examine how production fragmentation affected the inter-regional spillover of water uses(measured by VWT)driven by goods production,consumption and trade activities.The author of this dissertation used China’s multi-regional input-output(MRIO)tables to trace the trade of a given region’s three types of goods: local final goods,local intermediate goods,and goods that were shipped to other regions and countries(i.e.value chain-related trade).Based on an improved MRIO method,analytical results attributed the water consumption to different stages of production along the supply chain for each province.This research identified the inter-regional spillover of water uses and the contribution of different types of trade to the spillover.Unfortunately,results indicated that national water use increased due to trade,with value chain-related trade as the largest contributor to the increase.Thus,opportunities for regional and national water use savings were identified in terms of specific regions,sectors and trade types.These findings underscored the necessity of incorporating trade types in developing specific policies for allocating water resources as well as promoting water conservation.Energy sector was a major water consumer,and played an important role in national and local water savings,as described in the first study.Its water use,as one aspect of energy-water nexus(i.e.“water for energy”)was examined in the second study in this dissertation to explore potential vulnerability of energy and water uses relevant with spillover effects due to trade(measured by VWT).The water footprints were analyzed for the entire supply chain driven by energy demand sourced locally and externally,so as the water implications.Five types of energy demand in China were covered.By applying an Environmental Extended MRIO method,this research calculated the(scarce)water footprints driven by energy demand and the degree of reliance on scarce water,indicating the vulnerability of energy demand to water scarcity in coastal and northern provinces.Hotspots were identified for those facing physical or holistic water scarcity but exporting virtual(scarce)water,such as Yellow River Region and Northeast Region.To mitigate water shortage driven by energy demand,interprovincial flows and sectors needed to be differentiated based on the energy demand.In addition,two energy sources scenarios were assumed and the(scarce)water saving potential was examined.It was necessary to take the transboundary water impacts(inter-regional spillover effects)associated with energy demand into account to achieve energy security and water saving.A top-down approach was adopted from the domestic supply chain perspective in the first and second study.In contrast,the third study attempted to examine the spillover effects of regional policy on air pollution from a plant-level behavior perspective following a bottom-up approach.Focusing on the iron and steel industry in China,the author of this dissertation developed a production relocation database,to establish a unit-based bottom-up model for estimating the industrial upgrade performance and air pollution mitigation potential for each city and process because of the production relocation.Results showed that the production relocation helped to achieve the air pollution mitigation at both local and overall scale,but with limited spillover of air pollution to other regions,in contrast with that in the first study.This highlighted the critical role of adopting energy saving technologies and stricter emission limits during the production relocation to achieve the national overall mitigation target,and presented a promising case for inter-city cooperation.An integrated framework was developed in this dissertation to assess the environmental impacts derived from production relocation.Opportunities were identified to achieve both national and regional target on air pollution mitigation by relocating heavy industries,especially in emerging economies.更多还原