【作者】 高静；

【导师】 达良俊； 刘敏；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 生态学， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 生态系统服务作为连接人与自然的桥梁,在经济发展和生态保护的双重目标实现过程中发挥着关键纽带作用。在城市化不断推进的过程中,城市地表景观结构和功能演替,组织体系和功能体系不断交织演变,并以城市群这一更高级的空间组织形式呈现出来。如何实现经济发展与生态健康的双赢局面,是区域协作发展面临的严峻挑战。相比单一城市,城市群结构更复杂,空间异质性更高,用传统单一城市或整体区域评估的方法来研究城市群生态系统服务存在瓶颈,基于城市群空间结构特征识别的分析视角可为城市群生态系统服务的演变及影响因素研究提供思路和借鉴。本论文以中国发育较为成熟和完善的长三角城市群作为研究对象,以区域1990-2015年生态系统支持、供给、调节和文化四类服务为研究对象,通过选取服务代表性指标,核算并分析长三角城市群生态系统服务价值的时空演变及空间关联格局。另一方面,从产业结构、区位优势和经济联系强度三方面解析长三角城市群空间结构的动态变化,综合识别城市群核心城市、重要城市、节点城市、一般城市和腹地五级空间层次和等级结构特征。在此基础上,从城市群空间结构视角分析四类生态系统服务的变化,探讨生态系统服务价值与城市化的空间依赖性,分析二者的空间分异影响机制。并借助未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型,预测基线、快速、慢速和和谐四种发展情景下,长三角城市群2050年生态系统服务价值的空间格局,并识别长三角城市群主体功能区。研究主要结论如下:(1)1990-2015年间长三角城市群生态系统服务价值空间分异明显,呈西南高西北低的格局。连接重要城市的廊道出现连绵化发展,高值区中侵入的低值区增多,均质性下降,破碎化程度加重。生态系统服务价值从1990年的2864.86亿元下降至2015年的1654.32亿元,年均下降率为3.95%,低值区呈扩大趋势。其中,支持服务随时间变化不规律,城市建成区为支持服务的低值区;供给服务逐年增加,城市群西南山区粮食产量低于中北部平原地区;调节服务逐年下降,高值区域分布在浙江西南部的山区林地;文化服务年际变化较小,西南部和南部山区高于北部和东北部平原区;(2)长三角城市群城市之间的经济联系强度在时间维度上逐渐增强,空间维度上不断向网络化趋势演变。苏州与上海关联强度值从1990年的5747.39上升至2015年的556367.47,关联强度值始终高于其他城市与上海的关联强度值。区域第一、第二和第三产业占比从1990年的4.41%,30.94%和64.75%,转变为2015年的1.61%,46.50%和51.93%。产业结构在时间维度上呈现第三产业产值持续增加,第一产业产值逐步消失的极化趋势,在空间维度上,第二产业向城市群边缘或其他区域外移、第三产业向核心区聚集。长三角城市群综合城市化程度(CUL)表现出明显的空间异质性,呈现圈层—点轴—网络的扩展特征模式,平均CUL从城市群核心圈层的0.58,降到过渡圈层的0.15,再到边缘圈层的0.08。近25年来,长三角城市群层次等级体系表现出明显的五级体系,与克里斯泰勒(Christaller)等级中心地规律基本吻合;相对Christaller标准金字塔而言,长三角城市群中等规模城市数量较少的情况已显著改善,层次规模等级组织显示出从阶梯式到缓和式,从聚集化到离散化的转型升级。(3)1990-2015年长三角城市群生态系统支持服务、调节服务以及文化服务的变化在不同规模等级城市的平均变化值差异显著,呈现明显的逐级变化特征。生态系统服务价值与综合城市化程度的集聚模式在城市群空间结构中表现出明显差异。重要城市(苏锡常、宁波等都市圈)中高高集聚,高低集聚及低高集聚面积占比一致,比重分别为12.23%,13.37%和11.43%;核心城市(上海市、南京市和杭州市)与节点城市(昆山市和常熟市等)集聚关系类似,高高集聚及低高集聚面积占比较大,一般城市(慈溪市和丹阳市等)和腹地(宝应县和如东县等)的集聚关系类似,高低集聚及不显著面积比重较大。(4)在诸多影响因素中,综合城市化程度(CUL)的回归系数最大,说明综合城市化程度对生态系统服务的影响作用居于主导,其他因素的影响作用处于次要地位。2005年CUL的影响力最大,系数值为-0.86,其次是2000年和2010年,CUL系数值分别为-0.53和-0.46,说明自1990年起,综合城市化程度(CUL)对生态系统服务价值的影响作用不断增强,而在2010年之后则逐渐减弱。综合城市化程度(CUL)的影响作用对城市群空间结构的响应随着时间推移而发生变化,在1990年、2000年和2010年,作用强度随城市等级的降低呈现逐级递增的响应特征,说明高等级城市的综合城市化程度(CUL)对生态系统服务价值(ESV)的空间影响分异较小,而在1995年、2005年和2015年,则呈现出随城市等级降低而逐级递减的响应特征,说明高等级城市的综合城市化程度(CUL)对生态系统服务价值(ESV)的空间影响分异较大。两种回归方法的诊断结果显示,1990-2015年间普通最小二乘(OLS)回归诊断结果的调整R~2值为0.42-0.50,地理加权回归(GWR)诊断结果的调整R~2值为0.45-0.53,说明GWR比OLS回归更适合研究城市化对生态系统服务的空间影响机制。(5)基于FLUS和生态系统服务价值评估模型,长三角城市群在基线、快速、慢速和和谐发展四种情景下的生态系统服务价值分别为2738.49亿元、2137.51亿元、2597.28亿元和2983.62亿元。依据和谐发展情景下的生态系统服务价值及其影响因素,长三角城市群主体功能区的优化开发区主要分布在上海等核心城市区域以及苏锡常、南京、杭州和宁波四大都市圈区域;重点开发区主要分布在上海等核心城市以及苏锡常、南京、杭州和宁波四大都市圈外围及周边地区;浙北山区的生态保护屏障和长江流域廊道则为限制开发区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ecosystem services,as a bridge connecting human and nature,play a key role in the realization of the dual goals about economic development and ecological protection.In the process of urbanization,the structure and function of the urban surface landscape are succeeding,the organizational system and the functional system are constantly interweaving and evolving,and they are presented in the form of urban agglomeration,which is a more advanced spatial organization.How to achieve a win-win situation between economic development and ecological health is a severe challenge for regional collaborative development.Compared with a single city,the structure of urban agglomerations is more complex and the spatial heterogeneity is higher.There are bottlenecks in studying the ecosystem services of urban agglomerations using traditional methods of single city or overall regional assessment.The analysis perspective based on the the spatial structure of urban agglomerations can provide ideas and references for the research on the evolution and influencing factors of ecosystem services in urban agglomerations.The research takes Yangtze River Delta region as the research area which is relatively mature and well-developed urban agglomeration in China,and takes the regional ecosystem support,supply,regulation,and culture service from 1990 to 2015as the research object.By selecting representative indicators of services,accounting and analysis temporal-spatial evolution and spatial correlation pattern of ecosystem service value in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.On the other hand,analyze the dynamic changes in the spatial structure of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from the three aspects of industrial structure,location advantage and economic connection strength,and comprehensively identify the five levels spatial structure of urban agglomeration with core cities,node cities,important cities,general cities and hinterland.On the above basis,we analyze the changes of the four types of ecosystem services,from the perspective of the spatial structure of urban agglomerations,explore the spatial dependence between the value of ecosystem services and urbanization,and analyzes the mechanism of the spatial differentiation of the two.With the help of the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model,predict the spatial pattern of the ecosystem service value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2050 under the four development scenarios of baseline,fast,slow and harmonious development,and identify the main functional areas of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)From 1990 to 2015,the ecosystem service value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has obvious spatial differentiation,showing a pattern of high in the southwest and low in the northwest.Corridors connecting important cities have experienced continuous development,invaded low-value areas in high-value areas increased,homogeneity decreased,and fragmentation increased.The total value of ecosystem services dropped from 286.486 billion Yuan in 1990 to 165.432 billion Yuan in 2015,with an average annual reduction rate of 3.95%,and low-value areas are showing an expanding trend.Ecosystem support services change irregularly over time,urban built-up areas are low-value areas for support services;supply services are increasing year by year,and grain output in the southwest mountainous areas of the urban agglomeration is lower than the central and northern plains;adjustment services are decreasing year by year,and high-value areas are distributed in Zhejiang Mountainous forest land in the southwest;inter-annual changes in cultural services are small,and the mountainous areas in the north and northwest are higher than the plains in the southeast and south;(2)The intensity of economic connections between cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has gradually increased in the time dimension,and the spatial dimension has continued to evolve towards networking.The correlation strength between Suzhou and Shanghai rose from 5,747.39 in 1990 to 556,367.47 in2015,and the correlation strength between the two always ranks first among all cities in the Yangtze River Delta.The proportion of the regional primary,secondary and tertiary industries has changed from 4.41%,30.94%and 64.75%in 1990 to 1.61%,46.50%and 51.93%in 2015.The industrial structure shows a polarization trend in which the output value of the tertiary industry continues to increase and the output value of the primary industry gradually disappears in the time dimension.In the spatial dimension,the secondary industry moves to the edge of the city cluster or other areas,and the tertiary industry gathers in the core area.The comprehensive urbanization degree(CUL)of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows obvious spatial heterogeneity,presenting a circle-point axis-network expansion pattern.The average CUL has dropped from 0.58 in the core circle of the urban agglomeration to that of the transition circle.0.15,then to 0.08 of the edge circle.In the past 25 years,the Yangtze River Delta’s urban agglomeration hierarchy has shown an obvious five-level system,which is basically consistent with the Christaller hierarchical center system.Compared with the Christaller standard pyramid,the number of medium-sized cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration Few cases have been significantly improved,and hierarchical scale and hierarchical organizations have shown a transformation and upgrading from stepped to moderate,from agglomeration to discrete.(3)From 1990 to 2015,the changes in the ecosystem support services,regulation services,and cultural services of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration have significant differences in average change values in cities of different scales,showing obvious gradual change characteristics.The agglomeration patterns of ecosystem service value and comprehensive urbanization degree show obvious differences in the spatial structure of urban agglomerations.Important cities(such as Suzhou,Wuxi,Changzhou,Ningbo and other metropolitan areas)have the same proportions of medium-high agglomeration,high-low agglomeration and low-high agglomeration,accounting for 12.23%,13.37%and 11.43%respectively;core cities(Shanghai,Nanjing and Hangzhou)node cities(Kunshan and Changshu,etc.)have similar agglomeration relationships,with high-high agglomeration and low-high agglomeration occupying a relatively large area.The agglomeration relationship between general cities(Cixi and Danyang,etc.)and hinterland(Baoying and Rudong,etc.)is similarly,high-low clusters and insignificant areas account for a relatively large area.(4)The regression analysis of the influencing factors of the value of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows that the adjusted R~2value of ordinary least squares(OLS)result is between 0.42 and 0.50 from 1990 to2015.Geographically weighted regression(GWR)The adjusted R~2 value of the diagnosis result is between 0.45-0.53,indicating that GWR is more suitable than OLS regression to detect the spatial impact mechanism of urbanization on ecosystem services.Among the many influencing factors,the regression coefficient of comprehensive urbanization(CUL)in 2005 was the largest,with a coefficient of-0.86,followed by 2000 and 2010,with coefficients of-0.53 and-0.46,respectively.The influence of system services is dominant,and the influence of other factors is of secondary importance.The effect of the regression coefficient of comprehensive urbanization(CUL)has changed over time.In 1990,2000 and 2010,the intensity of the effect showed a gradual and increasing influence with the decrease of the city level,indicating the comprehensive effect of high-level cities.The degree of urbanization(CUL)has a small spatial impact on the ecosystem service value(ESV),but in 1995,2005 and 2015,it showed a gradual decrease in impact characteristics as the city level decreased,indicating a high level of comprehensive urbanization(CUL)of a city has a large spatial impact on the ecosystem service value(ESV).(5)Based on the FLUS and ecosystem service evaluation models,the ecosystem service values of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration under the four scenarios of baseline,rapid,slow and harmonious development are 273.849 billion Yuan,213.751 billion Yuan,259.728 billion Yuan and 298.62 billion respectively.Based on the value of ecosystem services,the optimized development zones in the main functional areas of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are mainly distributed in core urban areas such as Shanghai and four metropolitan areas such as Suzhou,Wuxi,Nanjing,Hangzhou and Ningbo;key development areas are mainly distributed in core cities such as Shanghai As well as the periphery and surrounding areas of the four metropolitan areas of Suzhou,Wuxi,Changzhou,Nanjing,Hangzhou and Ningbo;the ecological protection barriers in the mountainous areas of northern Zhejiang and the Yangtze River valley corridors are restricted development areas.更多还原