【作者】 刘秀娟；

【导师】 赵慧峰；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 在国家全面振兴奶业,建设奶业现代化的大背景下,奶业成为农业供给侧结构性改革的突破口。虽然中国奶业在改革开放后经历了 40余年的快速发展,但是与发达国家相比,竞争力依然较弱。“一带一路”开放格局下,面对进口乳制品的冲击和贸易摩擦,奶业发展水平亟需提升。因此以提高中国奶业竞争力为目标,研究中国奶业发展战略,优化区域布局,提出奶业发展对策,既可以丰富奶业发展理论,也能为相关政府部门提供管理、政策参考。通过对奶业和竞争力等内涵的界定,以竞争优势理论、要素禀赋理论、内生比较优势理论、可持续发展理论、区域经济理论等为基础,运用14年的国内各区域的奶业相关统计数据和37年的FAO国际奶业统计数据,分析中国奶业发展现状和影响因素,接着构建影响因素测度系统分析其作用效果,评价奶业发展水平,最后提出奶业发展建议。主要研究内容如下:第一,以波特钻石模型理论为基础,从理论角度剖析中国奶业发展的影响因素,找出奶业发展的内部优势和劣势,外部风险和威胁。第二,在奶业发展现状和影响因素分析基础上,结合奶业的特性,从发展环境、发展实力、竞争绩效三方面筛选奶业发展测度因子,采用探索性因子分析法,构建了包括5个公因子和18个度量指标的奶业发展影响因素测度系统。第三,提出研究假设,通过结构方程模型对影响因素间作用效果进行分析,找出对奶业发展作用最大的因子以及作用路径。首先,对作用路径分析得出:发展环境对乳企经营能力、竞争绩效、牧场经营能力、生鲜乳生产能力都有直接的正向促进作用,但影响程度依次降低,对牧场经营能力的影响显著性较差。竞争绩效需要发展环境和乳企经营能力、生鲜乳生产能力的共同支撑。乳企经营能力对牧场经营能力有直接正向促进作用,但显著性较差。其次,对观测变量进行分析得出:发展环境对投资能力、消费能力、创新能力依赖性较大,对辅助产业依赖性较小;生鲜乳生产能力与乳牛数量、规模牧场数量、牛奶人均占有量相关性较大;牧场经营能力与产品销售利润率、乳牛成本利润率相关性较大;乳企经营能力对资产利润率依赖性较大;竞争绩效与市场占有率、区位熵密切相关。第四,构建奶业发展水平评价指标体系,采用全局主成分分析法对27个省(自治区、直辖市)横跨14年的奶业发展水平进行评价,找出发展环境、生鲜乳生产能力、牧场经营能力、乳企经营能力、竞争绩效、综合发展水平的优势区域,通过聚类分析,对区域奶业发展进行定位,分为奶业龙头带动区、奶业潜力挖掘区、奶业特色发展区。最后,从全局视角制定奶业发展战略,从区域比较视角优化奶业发展布局,从影响因子视角提出奶业发展对策。在研究内容上创新点有三:一是构建了奶业发展影响因素测度系统。将奶业发展分析维度确定为:发展环境、发展实力、竞争绩效三方面;在发展实力部分,将牧场经营能力作为一个重要考察因子;最终形成5个公因子和18个度量指标的测度系统。二是测度了奶业发展影响因素的作用效果。使用国家统计数据对发展环境、生鲜乳生产能力、牧场经营能力、乳企经营能力、竞争绩效的影响路径进行验证,并测度了各因子的作用效果,研究结论丰富了奶业发展理论。三是评价27省14年的奶业发展水平。通过奶业发展水平的客观评价得分,找出区域优势因素,确定区域奶业发展定位,优化奶业发展布局。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of revitalizing the dairy industry in an all-round way and realizing the modernization of the dairy industry,the dairy industry has become a breakthrough in the structural reform of the agricultural supply side.Although China’s dairy industry has experienced rapid development for more than 40 years after reform and opening up,its competitiveness is still relatively weak compared with developed countries.Under the open pattern of "one belt and one road",facing the impact of imported dairy products and other trade frictions,the development level of dairy industry needs to be improved.Therefore,in order to improve the competitiveness of China’s dairy industry,it is necessary to study the development strategy of China’s dairy industry,optimize the regional layout and put forward the development countermeasures of dairy industry,which can not only enrich the theory of dairy industry development,but also provide management and policy reference for relevant government departments.By defining the connotation of dairy industry and competitiveness,based on competitive advantage theory,factor endowment theory,endogenous comparative advantage theory,sustainable development theory and regional economic theory,etc.,using 14 years of domestic dairy industry statistical data and 37 years of FAO international dairy industry statistical data,this paper analyzes the current situation and influencing factors of dairy industry development in China,then constructs an influencing factor measurement system to analyze its effects,evaluates the development level of the dairy industry,and finally puts forward recommendations for the development of the dairy industry.The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,based on Porter’s diamond model theory,this paper analyses the influencing factors of China’s dairy industry development from a theoretical perspective,and finds out the internal advantages and disadvantages,external risks and threats of dairy industry development.Secondly,on the basis of the analysis of the current situation and influencing factors of dairy industry,combined with the characteristics of dairy industry,the measurement factors of dairy industry development are screened from three aspects:development environment,development strength and competition performance.Then,an exploratory factor analysis method is used to construct a measurement factor system consisting of five common factors and 18 measurement indicators.Thirdly,the research hypothesis is put forward,and the effect of the factors is analyzed by structural equation model to find out the most important factors and the path of action for the development of dairy industry.One side,through the analysis of the path of action,it is concluded that the development environment has a direct positive effect on the dairy enterprises’ management ability,competitive performance,pasture management ability and fresh milk production capacity,but the degree of influence decreases in turn,and the impact on pasture management ability is less significant.Competitive performance needs to be supported by the development environment and the management ability of dairy enterprises and the production capacity of fresh milk.Dairy enterprises’ management ability has a direct positive effect on pasture management ability,but the significance is poor.On the other hand,through the analysis of the observed variables,it is concluded that the development environment is more dependent on investment ability,consumption ability and innovation ability,and less dependent on auxiliary industry;the production capacity of fresh milk is more related to the number of dairy cows,the number of scale pastures and the per capita share of milk;the management capacity of pastures is more related to the profit margin of product sales and the cost-profit margin of dairy cows;the operating ability of dairy enterprises depends heavily on the profit margin of assets;and the competitive performance is closely related to market share and location entropy.Fourthly,the evaluation index system of dairy industry development level is constructed.The development level of dairy industry in 27 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)spanning 14 years is evaluated by using the method of global principal component analysis.The advantage areas of developing environment,fresh milk production capacity,pasture management capacity,dairy enterprise management capacity,competitive performance and comprehensive development level are identified.Through cluster analysis,the development of regional dairy industry was positioned,which was divided into leading dairy industry driving area,potential mining area and characteristic dairy industry development area.Finally,the development strategy of dairy industry is formulated from the overall perspective,the development layout of dairy industry is optimized from the perspective of regional comparison,and the development countermeasures of dairy industry are put forward from the perspective of impact factors.There are three innovations in the research content:Firstly,the system of measuring factors affecting dairy industry development was constructed.The analysis dimension of dairy industry development is defined as three aspects:development environment,development strength and competition performance.In the part of developing strength,the management ability of pasture is regarded as an important factor.A dairy industry development measurement factor system with five common factors and 18 measurement indicators was formed.The second is to measure the effect of the factors affecting dairy industry development.National statistical data were used to validate the impact path of development environment,fresh milk production capacity,pasture management capacity,dairy enterprise management capacity and competitive performance,and to measure the effect of each factor.The research conclusions enriched the theory of dairy industry development.Thirdly,the development level of dairy industry in 27 provinces in 14 years was evaluated scientifically.Through the objective evaluation score of dairy industry development level,find out the regional advantage factors,determine the development orientation of regional dairy industry,and optimize the development layout of dairy industry.更多还原