【作者】 王昕；

【导师】 吕炜；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 财政学， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 十九大报告提出,在决胜全面建成小康社会的过程中,我们要坚决打好三个攻坚战,即防范化解重大风险、精准脱贫、污染防治的攻坚战。其中,防范化解重大风险被置于首要位置。另一方面,十九大报告以新的高度强调以人民为中心,并提出了科教兴国战略、人才强国战略、创新驱动发展战略、乡村振兴战略、区域协调发展战略、可持续发展战略、军民融合发展战略等一系列新时代中国特色社会主义发展战略,这些战略的顺利推进实施有赖于财政稳定,从另一个角度对财政风险防控提出了新的更高要求。除了对全国财政风险防控的政策设计,在2017年7月召开的第五次全国金融工作会议上,习近平总书记还做出重要指示:“各级地方党委和政府要树立正确政绩观,严控地方政府债务增量,终身问责,倒查责任”,彰显出中央严控地方政府债务风险的坚定决心。2018年12月,全国财政工作会议明确了十大任务,“确保地方财政可持续”也被列为重点任务之一。这些提法意味着地方财政风险与中央财政风险具有同等重要的地位,需要在未来一段时期加以重点关注。2020年初的疫情对财政提出了极大的挑战,更是成为了公众们重新审视财政压力和财政风险的导火索。一时间,各大新闻媒体和学术圈都开始纷纷思考财政吃紧所带来的风险和可持续问题。事实上,在此之前财政风险和财政可持续问题就已经得到了学术界的广泛关注。经典文献指出,财政风险是政府拥有的公共资源不足以履行其应承担的支出责任和义务,以至于经济、社会的稳定与发展受到损害的一种可能性(刘尚希,2003);财政可持续发展是衡量政府财政质量的重要标准。对于财政风险,大多数研究聚焦于国家层面的财政风险测度和防控,对于地方财政风险则关注较少。反观中国现实,党的十八大以来,随着财政支出责任和范围的逐年扩大,财政的风险也日益显现。国家连续多年推行支持调结构、稳增长、促改革、惠民生等重大举措的积极财政政策,加上经济减速和结构性减税的推进导致政府财政收入增速持续回落、财政支出持续刚性增长的现实,以及日趋严峻的地方债务和隐性债务压力,财政的可持续发展已经开始面临巨大挑战,这对于发挥财政在国家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用必将产生一定的不良影响,也将难以为未来中国经济的高质量发展提供相应的财力保障。可以发现,无论是理论层面还是实践层面,财政风险和财政可持续问题都是当今中国应当给予重视的关键领域。基于上述现实和理论背景,本文立足于国家治理现代化视角,同时对中央财政风险和地方财政风险进行关注与剖析,并对二者之间的联系进行逻辑挖掘。其必要性在于,新时代的新任务赋予了财政更高的使命,要求我们立足于国家治理体系与治理能力现代化层面,从全局性视角关注财政风险的现状与趋势。从国家治理视阈考虑,中央与地方财政风险具有相互渗透、相互影响的逻辑关系,在理论研究中我们不仅需要关注中央层面的财政风险与可持续,同时也要关注地方层面的财政风险与可持续,为中国经济稳定、健康、可持续发展提供基础性依托。积极防控中央和地方财政风险,是当前财政收入增速放缓、财政支出刚性较大,且国际与国内环境形势较为严峻的背景下,下一步财政工作的重要原则和关键性工作,也是实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦的客观需要。在此语境下,本文研究中国财政风险问题就具有了实践层面的重大意义,且能够通过“中央一地方财政风险”的二元视角分析为此领域理论研究做出创新贡献。本文的核心框架和理论逻辑是,基于中央与地方财政风险的现状事实,以及对中央与地方财政风险传导机制的理论剖析,对中央财政风险和可持续情况进行预测与评估,并通过实证分析探寻中央与地方财政风险的影响因素,最后得出防控财政风险、保持财政可持续发展的可行路径。其中,预算软约束和中央政府兜底是央地财政风险累积和传导的内在诱因。从中央政府的角度来说,对陷入财政困境的地方政府,会对中央财政有承担最终责任的预期,这也正是预算软约束的集中体现。从地方政府的角度来说,地方政府对中央政府存在较强的救助预期,会直接导致地方政府官员的道德风险,激励地方官员的短视行为,从而进一步增大地方财政风险,形成地方财政风险传导至中央的恶性循环。以上逻辑构成了本文联结央地财政风险的核心理论。具体而言,本文的安排如下:第一章是引言,主要介绍了本文选题的背景与意义,以及研究方法和基本框架,并阐述了文章的创新之处和不足之处。第二章是文献综述,主要包括财政风险内涵界定、度量指标、影响因素、地方财政压力、地方财政风险及其影响因素等领域。通过对已有文献的梳理,本文发现已有理论研究存在一定的空缺,主要体现在缺乏中央财政风险和地方财政风险相互传导的分析视角,以及较少有预测未来财政可持续性的研究。第三章介绍了中央和地方财政风险的特征事实与形成逻辑。首先构建财政风险评判指标:中央财政风险指标分为狭义视角和广义视角的财政风险度量指标体系;地方财政风险度量指标体系由四个一级指标以及十一个二级指标组成。接下来文章采用了统计分析方法,基于财政风险评判指标体系,利用中国实际经济数据,客观描述和评估中国宏观经济运行和央地财政风险的特征事实。文章发现,虽然中央和地方财政风险已经初步体现,但总体财政风险仍处于可控状态。同时,第三章还介绍了央地财政风险的传导逻辑,为下文实证研究奠定理论基础。第四章是财政可持续发展的国际经验介绍。在中央财政风险领域,对美国、欧盟、金砖国家的可持续发展经验进行了总结。在地方财政风险领域,主要介绍了其他国家在债务可持续发展方面的经验。在研究过程中,该章节采用了比较分析方法,通过查阅分析世界主要国家在保持财政可持续性和应对财政危机等方面的做法,结合我国所面临的经济社会环境与国外的差别,总结可供中国借鉴的经验和教训。第五章是中央财政风险的判别与分析。在总结主要国家保持财政可持续发展的经验基础上,阐述其对中国规避财政风险、保持财政可持续发展的重要启示。随后基于欧债危机数据分别从经济发展基本状况、政府财政收支能力、对外贸易开放度以及财政赤字和债务率等方面对中央财政风险进行实证分析。最后,采用经济预测和情景模拟方法对中央财政风险进行判别分析,合理预估不同政策对财政运行状况的因果影响,为相关政策出台提供依据。第六章是地方财政风险影响因素的判别与分析。首先介绍了地方财政风险的形成机理,随后对地方财政收支风险、地方政府债务风险和土地财政风险这三个指标进行了影响因素分析。在此基础上,还按照经济发展水平和地区对样本分组,进行了异质性检验。本章通过实证分析发现,地方政府的经济性投资冲动会造成较大的地方财政风险,而较强的经济实力则会在一定程度上缓解地方财政风险危机。对于不同经济发展水平和地区的城市而言,财政收支缺口、赤字依存度、负债率和土地出让金占比的影响因素并不完全相同,存在较大的异质性。第七章针对前文的结论,得出中国财政可持续发展的政策建议。主要包括:加强财政资金统筹力度、增强地方财政预算约束、完善财政的中长期规划管理机制、严控地方政府债务风险、调整经济结构和产业结构、减税降费政策精准发力等方面。本文的创新点主要体现在以下方面:其一,分别从狭义和广义视角来制定财政风险判别指标,其中狭义视角主要从政府收支现状以及债务风险角度切入研究,而广义视角则综合判断一国或地区的财政风险情况。其二,从理论角度阐述中央与地方财政风险的传导机制。以地方财政的预算软约束为出发点,通过财政分权引发的地方竞争、中央政府对地方政府的预算软约束、中央政府对地方财政风险的兜底责任、地方财政风险向中央财政风险的层层传递等理论阐释,厘清地方财政风险与中央财政风险的传导逻辑与反馈机制。其三,基于欧债危机数据,研究国家层面的经济发展基本状况因素、政府财政收支能力、对外贸易开放度、财政赤字与政府债务对财政风险的影响效果。同时也利用地区数据和微观机理方法,对地方财政风险的影响因素进行了实证分析。其四,采用经济指标预测方法对中国经济和财政走势、财政可持续状况进行预判。本文的不足之处主要体现在以下方面:其一,本文构建的财政风险指标体系很可能不够全面系统,未来还需根据中国国情对央地财政风险指标体系做出进一步完善。其二,本文建立的财政风险指标体系是否适用于中国全部地区或是国外地区,还需要得到更多经验数据的检验。其三,在后续研究中还可以结合我国财政体制改革的实际情况进一步研究地方财政风险与中央财政风险的联系,以形成有效的理论支撑、政策工具和制度体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China stated that in the process of decisive victory to build a well-off society in an all-round way,we must resolutely fight three tough battles,that is,to prevent and resolve major risks,to accurately eliminate poverty,and to prevent pollution.Among them,preventing and resolving major risks is put in the first place.On the other hand,the report of the 19th National Congress of the People’s Republic of China emphasizes people-centeredness at a new level,and puts forward the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education,the strategy of strengthening the country with talents,innovation-driven development strategy,rural revitalization strategy,regional coordinated development strategy,sustainable development strategy,military-civilian integration Development strategies and a series of new era socialist development strategies with Chinese characteristics.The smooth implementation of these strategies depends on financial stability,and puts forward new and higher requirements for fiscal risk prevention and control from another perspective.In addition to the policy design of national fiscal risk prevention and control,at the fifth national financial work conference held in July 2017,General Secretary Xi Jinping also made important instructions:"Local party committees and governments at all levels should establish a correct view of political performance "Controlling the increase of local government debt,accountability for life,and checking responsibility" demonstrates the firm determination of the central government to strictly control the risk of local government debt.In December 2018,the National Financial Work Conference clarified the top ten tasks,and "ensure the sustainability of local finance" was also listed as one of the key tasks.These references mean that local fiscal risks have the same important position as central fiscal risks,and they need to be focused on for some time to come.The epidemic in early 2020 posed a great challenge to finances,and became a fuse for the public to re-examine financial pressure and financial risks.For a time,the major news media and academic circles began to think about the risks and sustainability issues caused by financial constraints.In fact,prior to this,fiscal risks and fiscal sustainability have received extensive attention from academia.Classical literature points out that fiscal risk is a possibility that the public resources owned by the government are insufficient to fulfill its expenditure responsibilities and obligations,so that economic and social stability and development are damaged(Liu Shangxi,2003);fiscal sustainability Development is an important criterion for measuring the quality of government finances.For fiscal risks,most studies focus on the measurement and prevention and control of fiscal risks at the national level,and less attention is paid to local fiscal risks.Looking back on China’s reality,since the party’s 18th National Congress,with the expansion of fiscal expenditure responsibilities and scope year by year,fiscal risks have become increasingly apparent.The state has been implementing active fiscal policies supporting major measures such as structural adjustment,stable growth,promoting reforms,and benefiting people’s livelihood for many years in a row,coupled with the economic slowdown and structural tax cuts,the government’s fiscal revenue growth rate has continued to fall,and fiscal expenditures have continued to grow rigidly.The reality,and the increasingly severe local debt and hidden debt pressure,the sustainable development of finance has begun to face huge challenges,which will have a certain adverse impact on the role of finance in the foundation and important pillar of national governance.It is difficult to provide corresponding financial security for the future high-quality development of China’s economy.It can be found that,whether at the theoretical level or at the practical level,fiscal risks and fiscal sustainability are key areas that China should pay attention to today.Based on the above realistic and theoretical background,this article is based on the perspective of national governance modernization,and at the same time pays attention to and analyzes the central and local financial risks,and logically mines the connection between the two.The necessity is that the new tasks in the new era have given a higher mission to finance,requiring us to base ourselves on the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities and pay attention to the status and trends of fiscal risks from a global perspective.Considering from the perspective of national governance,central and local fiscal risks have a logical relationship of mutual penetration and mutual influence.In theoretical research,we need to pay attention not only to central level fiscal risks and sustainability,but also to local level fiscal risks and risks.Sustainability provides basic support for China’s economic stability,health and sustainable development.The active prevention and control of central and local fiscal risks is the current slowdown in fiscal revenue growth,the greater rigidity of fiscal expenditures,and the more severe international and domestic environmental situation.The objective needs of the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.In this context,the study of China’s fiscal risk issues has great practical significance,and can make innovative contributions to the theoretical research in this field through the dual perspective analysis of "central-local fiscal risk".The core framework and theoretical logic of this paper is based on the facts of the central and local fiscal risks and the theoretical analysis of the central and local fiscal risk transmission mechanism,to predict and evaluate the central fiscal risks and sustainability,and explore through empirical analysis The influencing factors of central and local fiscal risks finally come up with a feasible way to prevent and control fiscal risks and maintain fiscal sustainable development.Among them,the soft budget constraint and the central government’s pocket are the internal incentives for the accumulation and transmission of financial risks in the central region.From the perspective of the central government,local governments that are in financial difficulties have the expectation that they will bear the ultimate responsibility for the central finance,which is also the concentrated expression of soft budget constraints.From the perspective of the local government,the local government has a strong rescue expectation for the central government,which will directly lead to the moral hazard of local government officials and encourage local officials ’short-sighted behavior,thereby further increasing local financial risks and forming a transmission of local financial risks.Vicious circle to the center.The above logic constitutes the core theory of linking the central region’s financial risks.Specifically,the arrangement of this article is as follows:Chapter 1 is an introduction,which mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic selected in this article,as well as the research methods and basic framework,and explains the innovation and shortcomings of the article.Chapter 2 is a literature review,mainly including the definition of fiscal risk connotation,measurement indicators,influencing factors,local fiscal pressure,local fiscal risks and their influencing factors.By sorting out the existing literature,this paper finds that there are certain vacancies in the existing theoretical research,mainly reflected in the lack of analysis perspective of the mutual transmission of central fiscal risks and local fiscal risks,and few studies that predict the future financial sustainability.Chapter 3 introduces the characteristic facts and formation logic of central and local fiscal risks.First,construct financial risk evaluation indicators:the central financial risk indicators are divided into a narrow perspective and a broad perspective of the financial risk measurement indicator system;the local financial risk measurement indicator system consists of four first-level indicators and eleven second-level indicators.The next article uses a statistical analysis method,based on the financial risk evaluation index system,using China’s actual economic data to objectively describe and evaluate the characteristics of China’s macroeconomic operations and central region’s financial risks.The article found that although the central and local fiscal risks have been initially reflected,the overall fiscal risks are still under control.At the same time,the third chapter also introduces the transmission logic of central region’s financial risks,which lays a theoretical foundation for the empirical research below.Chapter 4 is an introduction to international experience of sustainable financial development.In the field of central fiscal risks,the sustainable development experiences of the United States,the European Union,and the BRICS countries are summarized.In the field of sustainable development,the relevant experiences of the United States,the European Union and the BRICS countries are summarized.In the area of local fiscal risk,it mainly introduces the experience of other countries in the sustainable development of debt.In the course of the research,this chapter uses a comparative analysis method.By reviewing and analyzing the practices of major countries in maintaining fiscal sustainability and responding to financial crises,and combining the differences between the economic and social environment faced by our country and foreign countries,we summarize the available The experience and lessons learned by China.Chapter 5 is the judgment and analysis of the central financial risk.On the basis of summarizing the experience of major countries in maintaining fiscal sustainable development,it expounds its important inspiration for China to avoid fiscal risks and maintain fiscal sustainable development.Subsequently,based on the data of the European debt crisis,the empirical analysis of the central government’s financial risks was conducted in terms of basic economic development,government fiscal revenue and expenditure capacity,foreign trade openness,fiscal deficit and debt ratio.Finally,economic forecasting and scenario simulation methods are used to discriminate and analyze the central fiscal risks,reasonably predict the causal effects of different policies on the financial operation,and provide a basis for the introduction of relevant policies.Chapter 6 is the identification and analysis of the influencing factors of local fiscal risks.First introduced the formation mechanism of local fiscal risk,and then analyzed the influencing factors of the three indicators of local fiscal revenue and expenditure risk,local government debt risk and land fiscal risk.On this basis,the samples were grouped according to the level of economic development and region,and a heterogeneity test was conducted.Through empirical analysis,this chapter finds that the economic investment impulse of local governments will cause greater local financial risks,and stronger economic strength will alleviate the local financial risk crisis to a certain extent.For cities of different economic development levels and regions,the influencing factors of fiscal revenue and expenditure gap,deficit dependency ratio,debt ratio and land transfer ratio are not completely the same,and there are large heterogeneities.Chapter 7 draws on the previous conclusions and draws policy recommendations for sustainable financial development in China.It mainly includes:strengthening the coordination of fiscal funds,strengthening local fiscal budget constraints,improving the medium-and long-term fiscal planning and management mechanism,strictly controlling the risk of local government debt,adjusting the economic structure and industrial structure,and reducing tax and fee reduction policies.The innovations of this article are mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,the fiscal risk judgment indicators are formulated from a narrow sense and a broad perspective,of which the narrow perspective mainly studies from the perspective of government revenue and expenditure status and debt risk,and the broad perspective comprehensively judges a country Or regional financial risk situation.Second,from a theoretical perspective,the central and local fiscal risk transmission mechanisms are described.Starting from the soft budget constraint of local finance,the local competition caused by fiscal decentralization,the soft budget constraint of the central government on local governments,the responsibility of the central government for local financial risks,and the transfer of local financial risks to the central financial risks And other theoretical explanations to clarify the transmission logic and feedback mechanism of local fiscal risks and central fiscal risks.Third,based on the data of the European debt crisis,we study the economic fundamentals at the national level,the government’s fiscal revenue and expenditure capabilities,the degree of economic openness,fiscal deficits and the effects of government debt on fiscal risks.At the same time,it also uses regional data and micro-mechanism methods to conduct an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of local fiscal risks.Fourth,it uses economic index prediction methods to predict China’s economic and fiscal trends and fiscal sustainability.The shortcomings of this article are mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,the financial risk indicator system constructed in this article is probably not comprehensive enough.In the future,the central region’s financial risk indicator system needs to be further improved according to China’s national conditions.Second,whether the financial risk indicator system established in this article is applicable to all regions of China or foreign regions,more empirical data needs to be tested.Third,in the follow-up research,we can further study the relationship between local fiscal risks and central fiscal risks in combination with the actual situation of China’s fiscal system reform to form effective theoretical support,policy tools,and institutional systems.更多还原