【作者】 王璐；

【导师】 郑君君；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2019， 博士

【摘要】 作为影响可持续发展的一个重要环境问题,气候变化受到全球范围内业界与学界的广泛关注.应对全球气候变暖的挑战是国际社会共同面临的迫切问题.低碳经济的提出和发展为替代传统能源密集型产业、平衡经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾提供了一个解决方案.从国际社会各行业“脱碳”效果来看,虽然近十年来取得了长足的进展,环保产品的市场占有率得到显著提高,但是大多数国家的低碳产品市场份额仍然较低,低碳技术和产品的扩散潜力很大程度上未能完全释放.另一方面,欧洲各国已经推出了燃油汽车禁售时间表.荷兰和挪威相继宣布将在2025全面禁止销售传统燃油汽车.德国通过了2030年停售燃油车的提案.法国和英国宣布将从2040年起停止销售汽油车和柴油车.中国政府也已经开始研究制定传统燃油汽车停产停售时间表.2019年3月5日,海南省政府发布的《海南省清洁能源汽车发展规划》中提出“2030年起海南全面禁止销售燃油车”.国际社会的环境规制对我国低碳策略的扩散提出了更高要求.综合市场内外部因素,厘清低碳策略的演化路径和扩散规律,是进一步挖掘行业低碳发展潜力和促进经济持续发展的关键.在市场经济环境下,企业之间通过制造、物流、供应链和管理等过程产生了各种各样的关系,企业和他们之间的关系构成了产业网络.产业网络对地区经济发展非常重要,它不仅为产业网络中的每个节点提供了交互平台,而且节省了企业间的交易成本,加快了流通速度和信息交流,进而加强了企业和行业的竞争力.行业网络结构能够通过作用于企业的策略决策而影响低碳技术和产品的扩散过程.掌握低碳技术和产品的扩散规律,能够借助低碳技术创新的力量,以更加环保高效的方式组织市场供给.另一方面,随着国民经济的发展和国民消费水平的提升,消费者不断对市场提出更高需求.一些关心生态环境、对绿色产品和服务具有现实和潜在购买意愿和购买力的消费者被称为绿色消费者.他们具有绿色环保意识,并已经或可能将绿色环保意识转化为绿色消费行为.绿色消费者规模在不断扩大,阿里研究院和阿里社会公益部联合发布的2016年度《中国绿色消费者报告》指出,我国绿色消费者比例四年间增长14倍.消费者的环境意识能够转化为绿色或低碳产品的市场需求,通过需求侧的结构性变革,引导或改变企业的生产投资决策,进而影响低碳策略的扩散效率.此外,基于新贸易理论企业同质性假设的局限,企业异质性的假设被提出,并且其理论研究已经取得了长足的进展.企业的异质性是指企业在生产规模、资本密集度、人力资本、组织方式和技术选择等方面的差异.大量实证研究表明企业的异质性在行业中普遍存在,并且企业异质性(多样性)能够影响企业的创新绩效.然而,目前从企业异质性视角对低碳策略的扩散的研究仍停留在实证分析阶段,缺乏有效的理论模型支撑.基于上述分析,本文研究在不同情形下产品市场上的低碳策略扩散路径与均衡.具体地,以行业网络拓扑结构、消费者环境意识以及企业异质性等方面为切入点,利用复杂网络和演化博弈论理论,对低碳策略演化过程和扩散规律进行建模及仿真分析.论文的研究工作主要从以下方面展开:1.从企业间博弈视角,建立双人对称演化博弈的理论模型,刻画企业的行为选择、低碳策略的扩散过程以及低碳策略的演化路径,为后续网络演化博弈模型的建立提供博弈模型.2.以企业间对称博弈的演化博弈模型为基础,将网络的复杂拓扑结构嵌入低碳策略扩散的建模过程中,建立低碳策略演化的网络博弈模型,对网络拓扑结构在低碳策略扩散过程中的作用机制进行分析.3.在低碳策略扩散的网络博弈模型的基础上,从绿色消费者群体特征出发,研究绿色消费者的群体构成和低碳溢价因素对低碳策略扩散的影响,进一步揭示宏观低碳策略扩散的微观决策机制.4.上述研究在企业同质假设下展开,进一步放松企业同质性的假设,本文在企业异质假设下,从企业市场势力差异入手,研究在企业市场势力不均衡的情景下,低碳策略的演化路径和涌现规律.5.基于Stackelberg博弈模型,研究存在技术转让的情景下,企业间技术转让及主从地位差异如何影响低碳策略的演化过程和涌现规律.综上所述,本文的研究将行业网络拓扑结构、消费者环境意识以及企业异质性等因素纳入低碳策略扩散的建模分析中,提出了低碳策略扩散的网络演化博弈模型,丰富和拓展了低碳策略扩散的理论研究体系.对低碳策略的扩散机制的研究不仅能够为低碳策略的扩散提供有益的洞见,而且能够为低碳经济的发展提供有意义的管理启示和政策建议.更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important environmental issue affecting sustainable development,climate change has received widespread attention from industry and academia worldwide.How to deal with the challenges of global warming is an urgent problem facing the international community.The proposal and development of the low-carbon economy provides a solution to replace the traditional energy-intensive industries and balance the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection.The effectiveness of the “decarbonization” of various industries in the international community shows that although the market share of environmentally friendly products has been significantly increased in the past decade,it is worth noting that the market share of low-carbon products in most countries is still relatively low,and the diffusion potential of low-carbon technologies and products has largely not been fully developed.On the other hand,some European countries have proposed a timetable for banning fossil fuel vehicles.The Netherlands and Norway have announced that they will ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in 2025.Germany has passed the proposal to suspend the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030.France and the United Kingdom have declared that they will stop selling gasoline and diesel vehicles from 2040.The Chinese government has also begun to study the establishment of the timetable for the suspension of traditional fuel vehicles.On March 5,2019,the “Development Plan for Clean Energy Vehicles in Hainan Province” proposed by Hainan provincial government announced that “Hainan will completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles since 2030.” The environmental regulation of the international community puts forward higher requirements for the diffusion of China’s low-carbon strategy.The key to mining the low-carbon development potential of the industry and promoting sustainable economic development is to integrate the internal and external factors of the market and to clarify the evolution path and diffusion law of the low-carbon strategy.In the context of market economy,enterprises have a variety of relationships through processes such as manufacturing,logistics,supply chain and management.Enterprises and the relationships among them constitute the industrial network,which is very important for regional economic development.It not only provides an interactive platform for each node in the industrial network,but also saves transaction costs among enterprises and speeds up the circulation speed and information exchange.Further the competitiveness of enterprises and industries has been strengthened.The industrial network structure can influence the diffusion process of low-carbon technologies and products through the affection of enterprises’ strategic decisions.Mastering the law of diffusion of low-carbon technologies and products,we can use the power of low-carbon technology innovation to organize market supply in a more environmentally friendly manner.On the other hand,with the development of the national economy and the increase of national consumption level,consumers have higher requirements for the market.Some consumers who care about the ecological environment and have realistic and potential purchase intentions and purchase power for green products and services are called green consumers.They have environmentally awareness and have or may have turned green awareness into green consumption behavior.The scale of green consumers is constantly expanding.According to the 2016 China Green Consumer Report jointly released by Ali Research and Ali Social Welfare Department,the proportion of green consumers in China has increased 14 times in past four years.Consumers’ environmental awareness can be translated into market demand for green or low-carbon products.And the structural change on the demand side may guide or change the enterprises’ production investment decisions,which in turn contribute to the diffusion of low-carbon strategies.In addition,considering the limitations of the homogeneity hypothesis of the new trade theory,the hypothesis of enterprise heterogeneity is proposed,and its theoretical research has made great progress.The heterogeneity of enterprises refers to the differences in production scale,capital intensity,human capital,organization and technology selection.A large number of empirical studies have shown that the heterogeneity of enterprises is widespread in the industry,and that enterprise heterogeneity(diversity)can affect the innovation performance of enterprises.However,the current research on the diffusion of low-carbon strategies from the perspective of enterprise heterogeneity remains at the stage of empirical analysis,lacking of effective theoretical model support.Based on the analysis above,this paper analyzes and simulates the evolution process and diffusion law of low-carbon strategy based on complex network and evolutionary game theory from the perspectives of network topological structure of industry,consumer environment awareness and enterprise heterogeneity.The work is mainly carried out from the following aspects:1.Considering the game among enterprises,the two players symmetric evolutionary game model is established,which depicts the behavior of enterprises,the diffusion process and the evolution path of low-carbon strategy.The work provides a game model for the establishment of subsequent network evolutionary game model.2.Based on the proposed evolutionary game model,the network evolutionary game model of low-carbon strategy diffusion is established which embed the complex network topology in the modeling process.The mechanism of the network topology on the diffusion of low-carbon strategy is analyzed.3.Based on the network game model of low-carbon strategy diffusion,the influences of the green consumer group composition and the low-carbon premium on the diffusion of low-carbon strategy are studied,considering the characteristics of green consumer groups,and the micro-decision mechanism of macro-low-carbon strategy diffusion is further revealed.4.The above research is carried out under the assumption of enterprises homogeneity.Relaxing the aforementioned assumption,under the assumption of heterogeneity of enterprises,this paper studies the evolution path and emerging law of low-carbon strategy under the situation of unbalanced market power in enterprises.5.How the green technology transfer and the dominate force of enterprises affect the evolution process and emerging law of the low-carbon strategy is investigated in the context of technology transfer,based on the Stackelberg game model.In summary,the research incorporates factors such as industry topology,consumer environmental awareness and enterprise heterogeneity into the modeling analysis of the diffusion of low-carbon strategies,and proposes network evolutionary game models of low-carbon strategy diffusion.The research provides a new theoretical model of lowcarbon diffusion,thus enriching and expanding the existing theoretical research system of low-carbon strategy diffusion.Studying the diffusion mechanism of low-carbon strategies can not only provide useful insights for the diffusion of low-carbon strategies,but also provide meaningful management implications and policy recommendations for the development of low-carbon economy.更多还原