【作者】 林伟明；

【导师】 余建辉；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 碳排放权交易机制(ETS)正在成为国际社会市场化控制碳排放的重要举措。中国政府力争于2017年全面启动全国碳排放权交易市场。现在,令政界、企业界和学术界担忧的问题是:中国很多能源密集型产业正处在快速发展阶段,此时政府实行ETS等碳排放管制政策,会不会抑制受管制产业国际竞争力的提升步伐?甚至弱化已经形成的国际竞争力?鉴于此,需引入更为科学严谨的计量分析方法,剔除产业支柱地位、非ETS国家工业化进程等产业异质因素和国家异质因素的干扰,明确ETS与造纸产业国际竞争力或企业市场竞争力间的“因果关系”,才能准确评估ETS对造纸产业的“净”直接竞争力效应。另外,检验路径“ETS→技术创新→产业国际竞争力”,测度ETS对造纸产业国际竞争力的间接效应,综合直接效应和间接效应以更准确判定ETS的竞争力效应。本研究基于“污染天堂假说”、“波特环境假说”、“资源禀赋假说”,论述碳排放交易机制度对产业国际竞争力的影响机理,并总结三大理论争论的本质及其对后续实证思路设计的启示;然后引入双重差分倾向得分匹配方法,明确ETS与产业国际竞争力间的“因果关系”,剔除国家异质因素的干扰,评估ETS对造纸产业国际竞争力、造纸企业市场竞争力的“净”直接效应;接着设计ETS与技术创新变量的交互项,利用GMM方法,评估ETS对造纸产业国际竞争力的间接效应;基于ETS竞争力效应的政策根源与政策背景剖析,为2017年全国碳排放交易市场运行机制及其配套政策设计提供决策参考。通过理论分析与实证研究表明:ETS对造纸产业国际竞争力具有显著的“净”直接正面效应,并通过刺激造纸企业技术创新而对造纸产业国际竞争力产生显著的间接正向效应。本文的创新之处体现在:第一,引入PSM-DID方法,构建拟自然实验环境下的反事实框架,剔除ETS国家、non-ETS国家异质因素的干扰,明确ETS政策与双边净出口额间真实的“因果关系”,更准确评估ETS影响产业国际竞争力的“净”直接效应;第二,实证分析沿着“ETS→技术创新→产业国际竞争力”的路径,对路径“ETS→技术创新/技术进步”或路径“ETS→产业国际竞争力”进行完善,测度ETS是否通过刺激技术创新而对ETS产业国际竞争力产生“创新补偿”效应(即间接效应),一方面丰富ETS作用机理的实证研究成果,另一方面真正意义上回答“污染天堂假说”、“波特环境假说”、“要素禀赋假说”争论的本质问题,并支持波特“环境假说”的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the pollution haven hypothesis,Porter’s environment hypothesis and resources endowment hypothesis,the paper introduces the characteristic that the Emissions Trading System(ETS)affects international competitiveness of industry,and summarizes the essence of the three major theoretical debate and its revelation for new thoughts to design the subsequent empirical train.Then,this paper evaluates the"Net" direct effect that ETS affects the paper industry international competitiveness and Paper enterprise market competitiveness by introducing difference-in-differences propensity score matching method,clearing causal relationship between the ETS and international competitiveness of industry,Eliminating the interference of state heterogeneous factors.Next,this paper evaluates the indirect effect that ETS affects the paper industry international competitiveness by designing the interaction between ETS with the variables of technological innovation and utilizing GMM method.Finally,Based on the analysis to ETS competitiveness effect policy root cause and background,this paper comes up with some decision reference for national carbon emissions trading market operation mechanism and its supporting policies designed in 2017.By means of theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper indicates that the ETS has significant "Net" direct effect on paper industry international competitiveness,and significant indirect effect by stimulating the paper enterprise technology to do technological innovation.As a typical industry regulated by ETS,the research conclusion on paper-making industry is typical and representative,which shows that regulated industry in the ETS country experiencing "non national treatment" does not suffer from the weakening crisis of international competitiveness.There are the innovation points of this paper.Firstly,this paper structures a count erfactual framework under the environment of natural simulation test through introduc ing PSM-DID method,to eliminate the heterogeneous factors interference of ETS cou ntries and non-ETS countries,for understanding clearly the real "causality" of ETS po licy and bilateral net exports to evaluate more exactly the "net"direct effect which the impact of ETS on industrial international competitiveness.Secondly,this paper does empirical analysis along the path of "ETS to technology innovation,and to industrial i nternational competitiveness",which perfects the path of "ETS to technology innovati on or technical progress" or the path of "ETS to industrial international competitivene ss,to measure whether ETS induces "Innovation Offsets"(indirect effect)on ETS indu strial international competitiveness by stimulating technological innovation.On the on e hand,the innovation of this paper enriches the empirical research of ETS action mec hanism;on the other hand,it is the real answer to the question that "Pollution Heaven Hypothesis","Porter Hypothesis" and "Factor Endowment Hypothesis" have debated,which supports the opinion of "Porter Hypothesis".更多还原