【作者】 张博；

【导师】 王守清；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 为创新重点领域投融资机制,防范化解地方财政风险,自2013年底以来中央政府大力推动政府和社会资本合作模式(Public–Private Partnership,简称PPP模式)发展,并开辟了中国PPP模式发展的新阶段。自2013年底以来,各地方政府发起了大量合规或不合规的PPP项目,然而PPP项目的签约率较低,各类社会资本的参与度参差不齐,尤其是民营资本的参与度较低。上述现象引发了有关PPP模式发展是否健康的广泛讨论。然而,由于缺少PPP项目发起、签约的微观项目数据,尚无实证研究从政府和社会资本两个视角分析影响PPP模式健康发展的因素。论文系统梳理了国内外的相关研究,并结合中国PPP发展实践,提炼出影响中国PPP发展的因素和假设,为后续的实证研究提供理论基础。第一,论文采用面板Tobit模型检验了影响地方政府发起PPP项目总规模和类型的因素。实证结论显示,基础设施供需缺口越大、预算内财政缺口越小、预算外债务规模越大、民营资本发展水平越高的地方政府发起的PPP项目总规模越大。其中,预算外债务规模越大的地方政府越倾向于发起经济性基础设施、大型项目以及政府付费类项目。针对PPP项目大规模退库的现象,论文进一步探讨了影响PPP模式泛化滥用的因素,实证结论表明:仅仅重视基础设施需求缺口却忽略需求质量差异将提升PPP项目的退库规模;预算外债务规模越大的地方政府发起的PPP项目退库规模越大;民营资本发展水平越高,该地区的PPP模式发展也越健康。第二,论文采用生存模型分析了PPP项目合约属性对项目签约率的影响,从而判断社会资本参与PPP投资的偏好。实证结果显示,社会资本更倾向于参与特许期较短、政府付费、获得政府支持以及拥有建造或大规模翻建的PPP项目。政府付费的影响主要体现在中部及东部地区,政府支持机制则主要影响西部及北部。针对民营资本参与度较低的现象,论文利用多元离散选择模型检验了地方政府在PPP项目招投标过程中选择不同类型企业作为合作方的偏好差异,其实证结果表明地方政府更愿意将风险低、吸引力大的项目交由国有企业实施,从而打击了民营资本参与的积极性,降低了其参与PPP投资的水平。基于研究结论,本论文围绕如何“提升政府发起PPP项目的效率”和“提升社会资本投资PPP意愿”两个角度提出若干政策建议,以促进PPP健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the end of 2013,local governments have initiated a large number of Public–Private Partnership(PPP)projects,but nearly half of them have been withdrawn by local governments since the end of 2017.Meanwhile,the contract signing rate is low and most of PPP investors are state-owned enterprises(SOEs).These phenomenons raised wide concerns about whether PPPs can contribute to the sustainable infrastructure development in urban China.However,due to the lack of micro data about the whole life cycle of PPP projects,there is few empirical studies to analyze the driving mechanism of PPP development from the perspectives of government and social capital.This paper systematically combs the relevant research,and combined with the practice of China’s PPP development,extracts the factors that affect the development of China’s PPP from the perspectives of government and social capital,and puts forward several empirical hypotheses,which provide theoretical basis for the subsequent empirical research.Firstly,the panel Tobit model is adopted to test the factors that affect the investment scale of PPP projects initiated by the government.The empirical results show that local governments with larger scale of infrastructure demand,higher offbudgetary debts,lower budgetary deficits or higher the level of private capital development tended to initiate more PPP projects.The impacts of off-budgetary debt on economic infrastructure,large projects and government-payment projects are significant,but has no impact on social infrastructure,small projects or user-payment projects.In view of the phenomenon of large-scale PPP projects being withdrawn,this paper further discusses the factors that affect the abuse of PPP.Empirical results show that: only paying attention to the scale of infrastructure demand and ignoring the demand quality will enhance the scale of withdrawn PPP projects;PPP projects initiated under higher off-budgetary burdens were more likely to be inappropriate and subsequently withdrawn;the higher the development level of private capital,the healthier the development of PPP mode of local government.Secondly,the survival model is used to analyze the impact of project contract characteristics on contract signing rate.Empirical results show that the contract signing rate is positively associated with government payment mechanism,shorter concession period,better government endorsement,and higher construction profit.The impact of government payment and contract type is mainly reflected in the central and eastern regions,while the impact of government credit enhancement mainly affects the western and northern regions.Furthermore,this paper uses the multiple discrete choice model to measure the government’s preference for different types of enterprises in the PPP bidding process.Empirical results show that,compared with non-SOEs,PPP contracts awarded to SOEs are more attractive to private sectors.Based on the empirical results,we provide policy suggestions to promote the efficiency of PPP initiation by local governments and the participation of social capital.更多还原