【作者】 黄智；

【导师】 陆善勇；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 中国是名副其实的制造业大国,制造业出口占商品出口比重长期高于90%,为中国对外经济的持续繁荣做出了巨大的贡献。但在近几年的现实观察中,一些制约中国制造业发展的深层次问题逐渐凸显,制造业出口增长呈放缓趋势,制造业发展面临诸多挑战。十九大报告指出,中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。制造业作为中国经济结构中的核心内容,其出口竞争力对中国的经济发展和国际分工地位具有深远的影响。在此背景下,如何提升出口竞争力,进而实现高质量发展,成为当前制造业发展的核心任务。因此,本文主要聚焦以下问题:当前中国的制造业和制造业出口是否符合“高质量发展”的内在要求?是哪些因素驱动了中国制造业出口竞争力的提升?在当前国内外复杂的经贸环境中,如何科学地指导制造业提升出口竞争力,最终实现制造业高质量发展?为解答这些问题,本文将分为七个章节进行详细讨论,具体如下:第一章主要论述本文的研究背景和意义,明确研究范式、研究内容和主要方法,并对论文涉及的主要概念进行界定。第二章为理论基础和文献综述。本章围绕国际分工理论凝练本文理论脉络,梳理出口竞争力影响因素的相关研究,总结出口竞争力的测度方法,对近年中国制造业发展的相关研究进行整理,夯实本文研究基础并拓展研究视角。第三章对中国制造业和制造业出口的现状展开研究。本章从研究中国制造业的发展概况入手,接着分析制造业出口的现状特征和面临的国际竞争环境。研究发现中国制造业出口取得了较大成就,但仍面临高端产品竞争力不足、国际竞争和贸易摩擦加剧等问题。第四章为中国制造业出口竞争力的测算和分析。本章分别从规模和质量两个维度测度中国制造业整体和细分行业两个层面的出口竞争力,研究发现:中国制造业整体规模竞争力呈现波动上升趋势,而近年整体质量竞争力处于停滞状态,且传统统计模式下放大了中国制造业出口规模,增加值贸易统计更适合当前国际分工的实际情况;细分制造业行业的出口竞争力演化趋势具有较大差异,但鲜有兼具规模和质量竞争力的行业,进一步证实了制造业的结构性问题;综上,中国制造业出口距离高质量发展的客观要求还存在一定距离。第五章为制造业出口竞争力影响因素研究之一。通过构建经济复杂度和技术创新影响出口竞争力的理论模型,并基于制造业行业数据通过面板模型进行验证,研究发现技术创新、经济复杂度和两者的协同效应对中国制造业出口规模竞争力和质量竞争力均具有正向促进作用。第六章为制造业出口竞争力影响因素研究之一。本章基于“双循环”新发展格局,通过构建经济政策不确定性、垂直专业化水平影响出口竞争力的理论模型,通过面板数据模型验证发现:经济政策不确定性对出口竞争力的提升具有阻碍作用,垂直专业化水平对出口竞争力提升具有促进作用,但两者共同影响下仍然能够促进中国制造业出口竞争力的提升,即加深垂直专业化水平可以抵消政策不确定性的负向冲击作用。第七章为结论和建议。在总结本文研究结论的基础上,从加快技术创新、深化国际分工和形成全面开放新格局三个方面提出推动制造业高质量发展、提升出口竞争力的对策建议。整体而言,本文可能在以下两方面形成创新点。第一,理论层面的创新。本文在统一的研究范式下,对影响出口竞争力的诸多因素进行了综合研究。首先,本文着重突出了技术创新和经济复杂度的影响,并构建理论机制模型进行实证研究,进一步拓展出口竞争力影响因素的研究。其次,将经济政策不确定性、垂直专业化水平与制造业出口竞争力统筹于一个理论框架内进行研究,在一定程度上解释了构建“双循环”新发展格局下国际分工深化和经贸环境变化之间的两难问题。第二,实践层面的创新。本文基于高质量发展的客观需求,从规模和质量两个维度综合运用多种指标测度中国制造业出口竞争力变化趋势,有助于进一步了解制造业出口竞争力,在拓展研究边际的同时为后续研究提供重要参考。并基于全文多个结论,结合构建“双循环”发展新格局等中国经济发展和制造业转型升级的主要脉络,提出了未来一段时期推动制造业高质量发展和提升竞争力的对策建议,具有一定的实践价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a veritable manufacturing country.Manufacturing exports accounted for more than 90% of merchandise exports for a long time,making a considerable contribution to China’s foreign economy’s continued prosperity.However,in recent years of practical observations,some deep-seated problems restricting China’s manufacturing industry’s development have gradually become prominent.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the Chinese economy has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development.As the core content of China’s economic structure,the manufacturing industry’s export competitiveness profoundly impacts China’s economic development and international division of labor status.In this context,improving export competitiveness and achieving high-quality development has become the core task of the current manufacturing industry.Therefore,this article focuses on the following questions: Do China’s current manufacturing and manufacturing exports meet the inherent requirements of "high-quality development" ? What factors drive the improvement of China’s manufacturing export competitiveness? In the current complex economic and trade environment at home and abroad,how to scientifically guide the manufacturing industry to improve its export competitiveness and ultimately achieve the high-quality development of manufacturing industry?This article will be divided into seven chapters for detailed discussion,as follows:The first chapter discusses the research background and significance of this article,clarifies the research paradigm,research content,and main methods,and defines the main concepts involved in the thesis.The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review.This chapter condenses the theoretical context of this article around the theory of international division of labor,sorts out relevant researches on the factors affecting export competitiveness,summarizes the measurement methods of export competitiveness,sorts out relevant researches on the development of China’s manufacturing industry in recent years,consolidates the research foundation of this article and expands the research perspective.The third chapter studies China’s manufacturing and manufacturing exports’ status quo.This chapter starts with the research on the development of China’s manufacturing industry and studies and analyzes manufacturing exports’ current characteristics and the international competitive environment facing them.The study found that China’s manufacturing exports have made significant achievements,but still face low competitiveness of high-end products,increased international competition,and increased trade frictions.The fourth chapter is the calculation and analysis of China’s manufacturing industry’s export competitiveness.This chapter measures China’s manufacturing industry’s export competitiveness as a whole and sub-industries from two dimensions of scale and quality.The study found that China’s manufacturing industry’s overall scale competitiveness has shown a fluctuating upward trend,while the overall quality competitiveness has stagnated in recent years.Besides,the traditional statistical model has enlarged China’s manufacturing industry’s export scale.Value-added trade statistics are more suitable for the current international division of labor;the evolution of export competitiveness of subdivided manufacturing industries is quite different,but few industries have both export scales and quality competitiveness.Furthermore,quality-competitive industries have further confirmed the manufacturing industry’s structural problems.In summary,China’s manufacturing exports are still far from the objective requirements for high-quality development.The fifth chapter is one study of the factors influencing the manufacturing industry’s export competitiveness.By constructing a theoretical model of economic complexity and technological innovation affecting export competitiveness and verifying it through a panel model based on manufacturing industry data,the study found that technological innovation,economic complexity,and the synergy between the two have a positive impact on the scale competitiveness and quality competitiveness of China’s manufacturing exports.The sixth chapter investigates one of the factors affecting the manufacturing industry’s export competitiveness.This chapter is based on the new development pattern of "dual cycle",by constructing a theoretical model of economic policy uncertainty and vertical specialization level affecting export competitiveness,and verifying through panel data model that economic policy uncertainty hinders the improvement of export competitiveness.The level of vertical specialization can promote the improvement of export competitiveness.However,under the combined influence of the two,it can still promote China’s manufacturing export competitiveness;that is,deepening the vertical specialization level can offset policy uncertainty’s negative impact.The seventh chapter is conclusions and recommendations.Based on summarizing this article’s research conclusions,it proposes countermeasures and suggestions to promote the manufacturing industry’s high-quality development and enhance export competitiveness from three aspects: accelerating technological innovation,deepening international labor division and forming a new pattern of the whole opening.Overall,this article may form innovative points in the following two aspects.In the first place,innovation at the theoretical level.First of all,among the many factors that affect export competitiveness,this article focuses on the impact of technological innovation and economic complexity,constructs theoretical mechanism models for empirical research,and further expands the research on factors affecting manufacturing export competitiveness.Secondly,the economic policy uncertainty,the level of vertical specialization,and the export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry are integrated into a new theoretical framework for research,which explains the dilemma between the deepening of the international division of labor and the changes in the economic and trade environment under the construction of the "dual cycle" new development pattern.Next in importance,innovation at the practical level.In on hand,based on the objective demand for high-quality development,this article comprehensively uses multiple indicators to measure the changing trend of China’s manufacturing export competitiveness from the two dimensions of scale and quality,which will help further to understand the export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and expand the research margins at the same time.Provide an essential reference for follow-up research.In the other hand,based on the multiple conclusions of the complete text,combined with the main context of China’s economic development and manufacturing transformation and upgrading,such as the construction of a new "dual cycle" development pattern,this article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote high-quality development of the manufacturing industry and enhance competitiveness in the future.更多还原