【作者】 孙睿；

【导师】 葛扬；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 理论经济学， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 2008年国际金融危机爆发,全球经济衰退。在世界经济一体化的背景下,我国经济受到显著冲击。面对经济下滑、政府财力不足的困境,我国于2009年推出了大规模经济刺激计划,引发地方政府投资迅速扩张,债务规模大幅增加。同年,我国地方政府债务规模骤增62%,引发社会广泛关注。近十年来,我国地方政府债务的发行愈演愈烈,债务规模不断扩张,债务风险不断积累,给未来我国经济增长增添了不少压力。当前,地方政府债务对我国经济增长是否还有促进作用,是否存在债务风险已成为学者思考的问题。在此背景下,本文决定研究地方政府债务对我国经济增长产生什么样的影响,同时试图评估我国当前债务风险,从而为决策者制订政策提供了参考。本文的前两章是背景提出和文献综述。本文的逻辑是先通过文献梳理,了解前人的研究成果;随后对我国地方政府债务进行客观的描述性统计;接着在前人的成果之上通过数理模型的建立分析我国地方政府债务与经济增长的二者关系,并在此基础上进一步分析我国经济增长质量与债务的关系,最后评估当前我国的债务风险并通过一个案例分析来为我国当前化解债务风险提供启示。本文的第三章对我国债务的规模、成因、现状进行了系统性的梳理。首先从规模上来看,我国地方政府债务规模庞大,债务增速较快,但是负债率低于国际警戒线,属于风险可控的范围。随后本章分析了我国地方政府债务形成的四个方面因素,分别为:制度方面的因素、政策方面的因素、管理方面的因素以及其他方面的因素。最后笔者从债务总量、债务类型、地区结构和偿还方式四个方面梳理了我国当前地方政府债务的现状。本文的第四章是对政府债务与经济增长的一个机理分析,文章从一个长期的机理模型——Lin世代交叠模型和一个短期的机理模型——IS-LM-BD这两个角度分析了政府债务是如何作用于经济增长的,同时探讨了一个债务可持续增长的机理,分析了债务在什么条件下可以持续推动经济增长,为后面我国政府债务风险评估提供理论帮助。本文的第五章利用固定效应模型和系统性GMM对我国地方政府债务与经济增长二者的关系进行考察,同时分析了在不同区域背景的差异下我国地方政府债务对经济增长的作用有何变化。本章得出:(1)我国地方政府债务与经济增长呈现倒“U”型的关系,在一定范围内,地方政府债务对经济增长的影响是促进的,但超过这个临界值地方政府债务会抑制经济增长;(2)当前我国地区差异比较明显,东部地区较为发达,债务承受水平相对较高,中西部地区的债务风险承受能力要低一些;(3)我国西南地区的债务对经济增长的推动作用要高于东北地区,且我国西南地区的债务承受风险能力要高于东北地区。这表明在东北地区,继续增加债务可能会抑制经济增长。本文第六章是考察我国经济增长质量与地方政府债务之间的关系。本章以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享这五个维度为基础构建了我国经济增长质量评价指标,并利用熵权topsis法对我国2011-2018年各省份经济增长质量进行了一个测算,随后通过普通面板模型和系统性GMM模型对我国地方政府债务和我国经济增长质量进行了实证检验,结论如下:(1)我国经济增长质量发展较不平衡,东部地区的经济增长质量显著高于中西部地区和东北地区;(2)2011-2018这八年来我国总体经济增长质量水平有所提高;我国东中西的经济增长质量差距有所减小,然而南北经济增长质量差距开始扩大;(3)地方政府债务对我国经济增长质量的影响也是非线性的,在负债率38.3%以下时地方政府债务的增加可以提升我国经济增长质量,超过这一临界值经济增长质量可能会有所下滑,我国总体经济增长质量还有很大提升空间。本文第七章是探讨我国当前地方政府债务的风险及应对措施。本章通过改进后的KMV模型对我国各省市未来3年的地方政府债务风险进行评估,结果发现:(1)我国东部省份的地方政府债务风险较小,可持续性较好,东北和中西部省份的地方政府债务风险较大,可持续性较差;(2)在可支配比例25%的情况下,仅凭借地政府自身的财政收入作为偿还债务的唯一来源,我国东北和中西部的部分省份必然会发生债务违约;(3)在加入中央税收返还和转移支付的情况下,我国各省份均不再有债务违约的风险,债务可持续性良好。最后本章通过一个典型案例分析并结合我国当前地方政府债务风险的应对措施从而给未来我国地方政府化解债务风险提供启示。本文第八章是全文的总结,并针对我国当前债务化解提出了短期、中期和长期这三点建议,最后对未来我国债务发展方向进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2008,the international financial crisis broke out and the global economic recession.Against the background of world economic integration,China’s economy has been significantly affected.Facing the dilemma of economic downturn and insufficient government revenue,China launched a large-scale economic stimulus plan in 2009,which led to rapid expansion of local government investment and a substantial increase in debt.In the same year,the scale of local government debt increased by 62%,which aroused widespread concern in the society.In the past decade,the issuance of local government debt in China has intensified,the scale of debt has been continuously expanded,and debt risks have been continuously accumulated,which has put a lot of pressure on China’s economic growth in the future.At present,whether local government debt has a promoting effect on China’s economic growth and whether there is debt risk has become a question for scholars to think about.In this context,this paper decided to study the relationship between local government debt and economic growth,and at the same time evaluate the current debt risk in China,thereby providing a reference for policy makers to formulate policies.The first two chapters of this paper are background presentation and literature review.The logic of this article is to first comb through the literature to understand the research results of the predecessors;then objectively descriptive statistics on the local government debt of our country;then analyze the local government debt and economic growth of our country through the establishment of mathematical models based on the previous results,and further analyze the relationship between the quality of China’s economic growth and debt,and finally assess the current debt risk of our country and provide a revelation for China’s current debt risk through a case analysis.The third chapter of this paper systematically sorts out the scale,causes and current situation of China’s debt.First of all,in terms of scale,China’s local government debt is huge and the debt growth rate is relatively fast,but the debt ratio is lower than the international warning line,which belongs to the scope of risk control.Then this chapter analyzes the four factors of the formation of local government debt in our country,namely: institutional factors,policy factors,management factors and other factors.Finally,the author combs the current situation of local government debt in China from four aspects: total debt,debt type,regional structure and repayment method.The fourth chapter of this paper is a mechanism analysis of government debt and economic growth.The article analyzes government debt from two perspectives: a longterm mechanism model—Barro model and a short-term mechanism model—IS-LMBD.How to act on economic growth,and at the same time explore the mechanism of sustainable debt growth,analyze the conditions under which debt can continue to promote economic growth,and provide theoretical assistance for the government’s debt risk assessment in China.In the fifth chapter,we use fixed effect model and systematic GMM to investigate the relationship between local government debt and economic growth,and analyze the changes of the role of local government debt on economic growth in different regional backgrounds..This chapter concludes:(1)China’s local government debt and economic growth have an inverted U-shaped relationship.To a certain extent,local government debt promotes economic growth.If this threshold is exceeded,local government debt will inhibit economic growth;(2)At present,the regional differences in China are relatively obvious,the eastern region is more developed,and the level of debt tolerance is relatively high.The debt risk tolerance of the central and western regions is lower;(3)The debt of southwest China has a greater role in driving economic growth than the northeast.And the debt-bearing capacity of the southwestern region of China is higher than that of the northeast.This suggests that in the Northeast,continuing to increase debt may curb economic growth.Chapter 6 examines the relationship between the quality of China’s economic growth and local government debt.Based on the five dimensions of innovation,coordination,green,opening,and sharing,this chapter constructs the evaluation indicators of the quality of China’s economic growth,and uses the entropy weight TOPSIS method to make a calculation of the economic growth quality of China’s provinces from 2011 to 2018,and then passes The ordinary panel model and the systematic GMM model have empirically tested the local government debt and the quality of China’s economic growth.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The quality of China’s economic growth is relatively uneven,and the quality of economic growth in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.And Northeast China;(2)The overall level of the quality of China’s economic growth has improved in the past eight years from 2011 to 2018;however,the gap between the quality of economic growth in China’s east,middle,and west has decreased,but the gap in the quality of economic growth between North and South has begun to widen;(3)The impact of government debt on the quality of China’s economic growth is also nonlinear.When the debt ratio is below 38.3%,the increase in local government debt can improve the quality of China’s economic growth.Above this threshold,the quality of economic growth may decline,and the overall economy of our country There is still much room for improvement in the quality of growth.Chapter 7 of this article is to discuss the risks and countermeasures of local government debt in China.This chapter uses the improved KMV model to evaluate the local government debt risk of China’s provinces and cities in the next three years.The results show that:(1)The local government debt risk in the eastern provinces of China is relatively small,the sustainability is good,and the northeast and central and western provinces Local government debt is more risky and less sustainable;(2)In the case of a disposable ratio of 25%,relying only on the local government’s own fiscal revenue as the sole source of debt repayment,some provinces in northeast and central and western China Debt default will inevitably occur;(3)In the case of central tax rebates and transfer payments,China’s provinces no longer have the risk of debt default,and debt sustainability is good.Finally,this chapter analyzes a typical case and combines the countermeasures of China’s current local government debt risk to provide enlightenment for the future local government of China to resolve the debt risk.The eighth chapter of this paper is the summary of the full text,and puts forward three suggestions: short-term,medium-term and long-term,aiming at the current debt resolution of our country.Finally,it looks forward to the future direction of China’s debt development.更多还原