【作者】 张建；

【导师】 诸培新；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2019， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,随着我国农村土地产权制度改革的推进、土地市场化建设与完善以及政府对土地流转的干预,农户参与土地流转的比例和土地流转规模逐渐增加。农地流转市场发展不仅改变了农户土地产权构成和农业生产效率,还对农户资源配置效率、农地规模经营水平和非农劳动力配置产生很大影响,农户土地流转参与也必然对其生计策略和福利水平产生巨大影响。在此背景下,本文试图回答:农地流转市场发育对农户生计策略和生计多样化有何影响,农户资本效率和福利水平是否因为参与土地流转而增加。为此,基于可持续生计理论(Sustainable Livelihoods Framework,SLF),本文构建了“农地流转市场发育与农户土地流转参与—生计策略及生计多样化—生计资本(劳动力)效率—福利水平变化”这一逻辑框架,在梳理我国农地流转政策变迁和农地流转市场发育,农民生计(生计策略、收入、贫困)现状和主要问题的基础上,使用具有全国代表性的中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),进行了系统的理论与实证研究。首先,本文研究了农地流转与农户生计策略之间的相互影响,本文将农户生计策略界定为种植经济作物和参与非农就业,以代表农户农业多样化策略和非农业多样化策略。实证研究中用到多变量probit(multivariate probit,MVP)模型,对农户土地流转和生计策略决策的相互影响进行了联合估计;其次,本文研究了农地流转对农户生计多样化的影响。农户生计多样化界定为农作物多样化和非农业多样化,并分别以农户种植农作物种类数和非农就业多样化赫芬达尔指数(Herfindahl-Hirschman index)来度量。实证研究中,为避免模型内生性问题,选择基于工具变量法的似不相关Tobit模型进行了估计;再次,本文研究了农地流转对农户生计资本(劳动力)效率的影响,劳动力生产效率划分为农业劳动生产率和非农业劳动生产率。实证研究中,本文采用多项 Logit 内生性转换回归模型(multinomial endogenous switching treatment regression,MESTR),以控制可观测和不可观测异质性因素对估计造成的偏差;最后,本文研究农地流转对农户收入和贫困发生概率的影响,农户收入划分为人均总收入、人均农业收入、人均非农就业收入和人均财产性收入。实证研究中,本文构建了动态面板模型,采用动态面板工具变量法进行了估计。经过以上研究,本文主要得出以下结论:第一,农地流转市场发育有利于优化农户生计策略选择,农户土地转出后降低了农作物多样化程度,并逐步退出农业生产领域,生计活动转向非农就业;农户转入土地增加了种植经济作物的概率,并提高了农作物多样化程度。由于土地流转规模存在很大差异,农户转入一定规模的土地后才会朝着农业专业化方向发展;第二,总体而言,农户土地转入与经济作物种植决策正相关,与非农劳动力转移决策负相关。土地转出与种植经济作物决策负相关,与非农劳动力转移决策正相关。土地流转与农户生计策略的关系与农地流转规模与机械化进程相关,小规模和中等规模的土地转入与劳动力非农配置之间未有显著关系,但大规模的土地转入与农户经济作物种植决策和非农就业决策显著负相关。机械化替代可能性较高的平原地区土地转入决策对农户生计决策未有影响,而机械化程度较低的高山、丘陵、高原等地区土地转入决策与农户种植经济作物和非农就业决策分别存在正相关和负相关关系;第三,总体而言,农户转入土地增加了农作物多样化程度,转出土地后降低了农作物多样化程度,未发现土地流转对农户非农多样化的影响。进一步研究不同土地流转规模对农户生计多样化的影响,发现只有大规模的土地转入降低了农户农作物和非农业多样化程度。将样本按照机械化程度高低划分为两组,发现机械化程度较高的地区土地转入对农户农作物多样化程度未有影响,机械化程度较低的地区土地大规模转入会降低农作物多样化程度;第四,农户转入土地后农业劳动生产率增加了 55%,但非农劳动生产率小幅度降低了 6%。此外,研究还发现转出户的农业和非农业劳动生产率分别降低了 13%和9%。转入户农业劳动生产率的增加是农业生产效率提高的结果。转出户非农劳动生产率之所以降低,是由于土地转出使得边际生产效率较低的农户投入非农就业,反而间接的降低了农户家庭整体的非农劳动生产率;第五,土地流转增加了农户收入,降低了农户贫困发生概率。农地流转对农户收入的影响中,土地转入主要增加农户的农业收入,土地转出增加了农户非农就业收入和财产性收入。土地转入规模对农户收入存在差异,中等规模的土地转入对农户人均总收入和人均农业收入的增加效应最明显,大规模土地转入尽管增加了农户人均总收入和人均农业收入,但也显著降低了农户人均非农就业收入。农地流转对农户贫困发生概率的研究表明,土地转出显著降低了农户贫困发生概率,而土地转入并未发现这一规律。研究农地流转通过农户生计策略转变对农户收入和贫困的间接影响发现,农地转出后农户劳动力转移带来的农户收入增加和贫困发生率降低等中介效应存在,农地转入后农户种植经济作物进而降低贫困发生概率的中介效应存在。根据以上研究结论,本文从优化农户生计多样化策略选择、促进转入户生计策略向农业专业化转变、促进转出户生计向非农多样化发展以及增强转入户规模经营效益等方面提出相应的政策建议,包括加强土地市场化建设,提高农户土地流转参与率和流转规模;做好非农就业培训、生产贷款和补贴政策;完善农业机械化服务,降低农业机械化服务推广成本等。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,along with rural land tenure reform,land market construction and government intervention in China,the share of rural household’s land rental participation as well as land transfer scale have gradually improved.Not only land transfer has changed farmers’ land tenure composition and agriculgtural efficiency,but also caused huge impact on household’s resource allocation efficiency,land scale operation level as well as off-farm labor allocation.Under this background,this paper tries to answer:how do land transfer affect rural households’livelihood strategies and diversification,does rural households’asset efficiency and welfare be improved in this process?Therefore,based on the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework(SLF),this paper constructs the theoretical framework of "rural household’s land transfer participation-rural livelihood strategies and diversification-asset efficiency-welfare change".After the description of land transfer policy,land rental market development,scale management as well as rural households’livelihood conditions(strategies and welfare)and problems,this paper adopts the national representative China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)and and systematicially researched the related topics.Firstly,this paper studied the impact of land transfer on rural household’s livelihood strategy choices,that are decisions of cash crop planting and off-farm employment,which represent household’s "non-grain" strategy and off-farm employment.The multivariate probit model was mainly used in the empirical work,to study the joint-decision making of land transfer and livelihood strategy decisions.Furthormore,this paper studied the impact of land transfer on rural household’s livelihood diversification,that are crop diversification and off-farm diversification,which represent household’s farm diversification and off-farm diversification seperately.The crop diversification was measured by the number of crops that farmers growed and off-farm diversification was mensured by Herfindahl-Hirschman index.In the empirical work,we chose the seemingly unrelated Tobit model based on instrumental variables to avoid endougenous problem.Furthermore,this paper studied the impact of land transfer on rural household’s asset(labor)efficiency,and labor productivity can be divided into farm labor productivity and non-farm labor productivity.In the empirical part,this paper adopted multinomial endogenous switching treatment regression(MESTR)to control the bias caused by observable and unobservable factors.Finally,this paper studied the impact of land transfer on rural household’s income and poverty,household’s income can be divided into total income per capita,agricultural income per capita,non-farm income per capita as well as property income per capita.In the empirical work,through constructing the dynamic panel data model,the dynamic panel instrumental variable method was adopted.Through a series of relative studies,this paper derived the following conclusions:firstly,farmland rental market development is conducive to optimizing rural households’livelihood strategy choices.After renting out land,rural households has significantly reduced crop diversification and gradually withdrawn from farming,and specialized in non-agricultural employment.After renting in land,rural households have increased the probability of planting economic crops and the diversity of crops.Due to the large difference in land transfer scale,farmers will move towards agricultural specialization after they rent in a certain scale of land.Secondly,overally,renting-in decision has a significantly positive relation with cash crop planting decision,while has a significantly negative relation with off-farm employment decision.Renting-out has a significantly negative relation with cash crop planting decision,while has a significantly positive relation with off-farm employment decision.Otherwise,the relationship between land transfer and cash crop planting decisions are determined by land transfer scale and mechanization level,small and medium scale land transfer has no impact on off-farm employment decision,while large scale transfer has significantly negative relation with cash crop planting decision and off-farm employment decision.In the plain area where there is a high probability to use machinery,renting-in land decision has no effect on livelihood decision,while in the mountain,hilly and plateau areas where there is a low probability to adopt machinery,renting-in decision has a positive relation with cash crop planting and a negative relation with off-farm employment decision.Thirdly,rural household’s land renting decision affects their livelihood diversification degree.Overally,renting-in land has improved crop diversity,while renting-out has reduced crop diversity.The result failed to find the impact of renting-out on household’s off-farm diversity.Further research focused on the impact of land transfer scale on household’s livelihood diversity,results show that only large scale renting-in has reduced household’s crop diversity and off-farm diversity.Samples are divided into two parts with different mechanization process according to topography.We found that there is no effect of land renting-in on crop diversity in plain areas with high mechanization level,while in non-plain area with low mechanization level there is significantly negative effect of large-scale renting-in on crop diversity.Fourth,there are different effects of land transfer on rural household’s farm and non-farm labor productivity.After renting-in land,households improved farm labor productivity by about 55%,but slightly reduced family non-farm labor productivity by about 6%.Furthermore,we found that household’s renting-out land both reduced their farm and non-farm labor productivity by 13%and 9%separately.The increase in the farm labor productivity for renting-in households is the result of the improved agricultural production efficiency.The reason for the reduced non-farm labor productivity for renting-out households is mainly that land transfer makes family laborers with low marginal production efficiency invest in non-agricultural employment,therefore indirectly reduces the non-farm labor productivity of the whole family.Fifth,rural household has improved their income after participating in land rental market,and also reduced poverty rate.Considerring the impact of land renting on houshold’s income,renting-in mainly improved household’s agricultural income,while renting-out mainly improved household’s off-farm income and property income.We also found the differences of land transfer scale on household’s income,the medium scale renting-in has the most obvisious improvement effect on household’s per capita income and agricultural income.Although large land renting-in has improved household’s per capita income and agricultural income,it also has significantly reduced off-farm income.Referring to the result of land transfer on household’s poverty rate,we found that renting-out has significantly reduced rural poverty,while no significant evidence was found that renting-in reduced rural poverty.Through analyzing the indirect impact of land transfer on the income and poverty of farmers through the change of farmers’ livelihood strategies,we found the existence of the intermediary effect of labor migration on income increase and poverty reduction for households that renting-out land,as well as the existence of the intermediary effect of planting economic crops on poverty reduction for households that renting-in land.According to the above conclusions,this paper put forward relative policy implications from the following perspectives:optimizing rural household livelihood strategy choosing,encouraging renting-in households specializing in agricultural production,encouraging renting-out households’ diversified into various off-farm activities,and improving renting-in households’scale management benefits.The policies are strengthening the construction of farmland rental market,improving land rental rates and transfer scale,offerring trainging program,loans and subisies for renting-out households,reducing the cost of agricultural mechanization service promotion and perfecting agricultural mechanization services,etc.更多还原