【作者】 李丽霞；

【导师】 马勇；

【作者基本信息】 湖北大学 ， 人口资源与环境经济学， 2019， 博士

【摘要】 目前旅游业已成为世界上增长最快、需求最旺盛的产业之一,根据世界旅游组织公布的数据,2017年旅游业对全球GDP的贡献接近10%,并为国际社会创造了10%的就业机会。旅游业在提振经济、消除贫富差距、增加地区就业和改善人民生活质量等方面发挥的作用有目共睹。一直以来旅游业都是以“无污染、低能耗”的产业形象示人,但是,随着旅游业的快速发展,旅游业对环境的影响已经越来越不容忽视,旅游游憩活动、旅游住宿餐饮和旅游交通等所产生的碳排放正在对旅游目的地产生越来越大的负面影响,目前国际旅游业的二氧化碳排放量已达到全球温室气体排放的8%,由此可见,旅游业并不是大家所公认的绿色产业,大规模的旅游基础设施建设往往使其比许多其他产业的碳排放更为密集。因此,如何采取积极有效的措施消除旅游业对环境的不利影响、不断提高旅游资源的产出效率以及推进旅游业的高质量绿色发展是摆在我们面前亟待解决的重要问题。基于这一思考,笔者将学术界研究经济绿色増长问题最重要的工具绿色全要素生产率引入旅游业领域,期望通过对中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率的具体实证研究来衡量中国旅游业发展的效率和质量,充分认识我国旅游经济发展对生态环境的影响,并积极探求促进我国旅游业绿色可持续发展的路径。本研究首先回顾了国内外关于绿色全要素生产率和旅游业绿色全要素生产率研究的相关文献,发现无论是在测度方法还是在研究内容上,中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率的研究都有待进一步完善和深入。在此基础上,笔者构建了中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率的测算指标体系,全面估算了2000——2016年中国各省(自治区、直辖市)旅游业发展的能源消耗和碳排放量,并运用混合径向的EBM模型结合MalmquistLuenberger指数,以及Maxdea7.0软件对中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率进行了测算。在对测算结果进行分析时,还结合旅游生命周期理论分析比较了全国各区域旅游业绿色全要素生产率的差异和变化规律,并对中国旅游业领域是否存在“波特假说”进行了一定的探讨。其二,笔者运用Arc GIS10.3软件从空间上对中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)旅游业历年来的累积相对绿色全要素生产率结果进行了时空演变过程分析,并运用探索性空间数据分析方法检验了中国各省旅游业绿色全要素生产率的空间相关性,之后又在分析中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率影响因素的作用机理的基础上,运用计量经济模型对中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率的影响因素进行了实证分析研究。最后,笔者根据实证分析结果提出了提升中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率的具体路径。通过上述研究,本文主要得出了如下结论:(1)2000——2016年全国旅游交通碳排放占整个旅游业碳排放总量的81.7%,且碳排放较高的地区大多数集中在中国的东部省份;2000——2016年全国旅游交通能耗占整个旅游业总能耗的比重为74.7%,是旅游业总能耗的主要来源,旅游活动能耗在旅游业总能耗中的比重正逐年提升,旅游住宿能耗比重则在逐年下降。(2)中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率指数在十七年间是总体上升的,总平均增长率为7.1%,其中,由技术效率(EC)带动的增长率为1.2%,由技术进步贡献的增长率为7.3%,中西部地区的平均增长率大于全国总平均增长率,而东部地区的总平均增长率则位于全国平均线以下。(3)历年来不考虑环境因素的传统旅游业全要素生产率指数要普遍大于考虑环境因素的旅游业绿色全要素生产率指数;在中国旅游业不同发展阶段的绿色全要素生产率呈现不同的变化规律和特征,在“探查阶段”处于下降的状态,在“参与阶段”处于波动上升的状态,在“发展阶段”处于先下降、后上升的“U”曲线变化状态。(4)中国旅游业平均累积相对绿色全要素生产率整体呈现东北相对偏高、中部和东南部居中、西北偏低的格局,局部呈现高低相邻的特征。各省(自治区、直辖市)的旅游业绿色全要素生产率不存在明显的空间相关性,基本上是相互独立的,不受邻近区域的影响。进一步对其做局域相关性检验发现,其局域相关性也非常不显著,并不存在明显的聚集效应。(5)第三产业占比、城镇化率、技术市场成交额GDP占比能够显著正向影响中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率,旅游收入人数比、万元GDP能耗、政府污染治理投资GDP占比、交通密度显著负向影响中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率,代表技术进步的自主创新能力和对外开放程度变量的回归结果不显著。将旅游收入人数比、政府污染治理投资GDP占比分别作为核心变量进行门槛回归,结果显示两者对旅游业绿色全要素生产率的影响都呈“U”型曲线的左半边变化特征,即旅游收入人数比对旅游业绿色全要素生产率的负向影响随着该变量的不断增大而逐渐缩小,政府污染治理投资的GDP占比对旅游业绿色全要素生产率的负向影响也随着该变量的增长而减弱。据此笔者推测,我国旅游业目前可能正处于“波特假说”的前半期发展阶段,环境管制下我国旅游业的绿色全要素生产率水平虽然有所下降,但是随着技术的不断进步,这种生产率的下降正在逐渐消失,并最终会迎来“U”型曲线拐点,进入“波特假说”的后半期发展阶段(即“U”型曲线的右半边)。基于上述结论,本文从政府、行业和社会公众等三大视角出发,提出了绿色理念引导、绿色政策推进、绿色金融支撑、绿色管理督导,绿色产业融合、绿色制度建设、绿色技术创新和绿色项目示范,全域旅游概念普及、绿色旅游需求引导、全民绿色教育推进等优化提升中国旅游业绿色全要素生产率水平的具体路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,tourism has become one of the fastest growing and most demanding industries in the world.According to the data released by the World Tourism Organization,tourism contributed nearly 10% of global GDP and created 10% of employment opportunities for the international community in 2017.Meanwhile,tourism has always been seen as a industry of “pollution-free and low energy consumption".However,with the rapid development of tourism,the impact of tourism on environment has become more and more unnegligible.The carbon emissions generated by Leisure activities,accommodation and catering have an increasingly negative impact on tourism destinations.The carbon dioxide emissions generated by tourism have now reached 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,tourism shouldn’t be recognized as a green industry as people always regarded.Large-scale infrastructure constructions of tourism often lead to denser carbon emissions than many other industries.Thus,the important issue ahead that needs to be resolved is how to take effective measures to eliminate the negative impact of tourism on environment,and to continuously improve the output efficiency of tourism resources so as to promote green development of tourism with high quality.Based on these considerations,this paper applies green total factor productivity(GTFP),which is the most important tool in academic circles to study green growth of economy to the research of tourism,in order to measure the efficiency and quality of the development of tourism in China through empirical examinations on the GTFP of tourism in China,to fully understand the impact of tourism economy on ecological environment,and actively explore ways to upgrade the green development of China’s tourism.Firstly,this paper reviews the relevant literatures on GTFP and GTFP of tourism at home and abroad,and finds that the research on GTFP of tourism in China needs to be further improved and deepened in terms of both measurement methods and research contents.So this paper constructs the index of GTFP of tourism in China.Based on the standard system,the energy consumption and carbon emissions of tourism in China’s provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)from 2000 to 2016 were estimated comprehensively.The mixed radial EBM model was used to calculate the GTFP of tourism in China with Malmquist-Luenberger(ML)index and Maxdea 7.0 software.In addition,this paper also innovatively uses the tourism life cycle theory to analyze and compare the differences and changing rules of the GTFP of regional tourism in China,and to explores whether there is a "Porter hypothesis" in the field of tourism in China.Secondly,this paper uses Arc GIS 10.3 software to analyze the Spatio-Temporal evolution process of the average cumulative relative GTFP of tourism in 30 provinces over the years,and uses exploratory spatial data analysis method to test the spatial correlation of the GTFP of tourism in China’s provinces.Then,based on the analysis of the mechanism on the factors affecting the GTFP of tourism in China,this paper constructs econometric model empirically examine the factors affecting the GTFP of tourism in China.Finally,based on the empirical analysis,this paper puts forward specific ways to upgrade the GTFP of tourism in China.Based on the above researches,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)From 2000 to 2016,the carbon emissions from tourism transportation in China accounted for 81.7% of the total carbon emissions of tourism,and most of the regions with high carbon emissions concentrated in eastern provinces of China;the energy consumption of tourism transportation in China accounted for 74.7% of the total energy consumption of tourism,and the proportion of energy consumption of tourism activities in the total energy consumption of tourism is increasing year by year,while the proportion of energy consumption of tourism accommodation is decreasing year by year.(2)The GTFP index of China’s tourism has risen for 17 years,with an average growth rate of 7.1%.The growth rate driven by technical efficiency(EC)is 1.2%.The growth rate contributed by technological progress is 7.3%.The average growth rate of the central and the western regions is higher than the national average growth rate,while the average growth rate of the eastern regions is below the national average growth rate.(3)Over the years,the total factor productivity(TFP)index of tourism without considering environmental factors is generally larger than the GTFP index of tourism with environmental factors taken into account;The GTFP in different stages of tourism development in China presents different changing rules and characteristics.In the "exploration stage",it is in a declining state,in the "participation stage",it is in a fluctuating and rising state,and in the "development stage",and it is in a declining first and rising after state as “U” curve.Accordingly,this paper asserts that the "Porter hypothesis" may exist at a local stage of tourism development.(4)The average cumulative relative GTFP of China’s tourism is relatively high in the northeast,moderate in the central and southeast,and low in the northwest,with local areas characterized by high and low adjacency.The GTFP of tourism in provinces has no obvious spatial correlation,and is basically independent of each other and is not affected by the adjacent regions.(5)The proportion of tertiary industry,urbanization rate and technology market transactions ratio of GDP can significantly and positively affect the GTFP of tourism in all regions of China.The ratio of tourism income to the number of visitors,energy consumption in per ten thousand of GDP,the proportion of government investment in pollution control in GDP as well as traffic density are negatively affected the GTFP of tourism in different regions,The regression results of the technological progress represented by independent innovation ability and the openness to the outside world are not significant.Taking the ratio of tourism income to the number of visitors and the proportion of government investment in pollution control in GDP as the two core variables to do threshold regression separately,the results show that both of their impact on GTFP of tourism have a "U" curve change on the left side.That is to say,the negative impacts of the two core variables on the GTFP of tourism gradually decrease with the increase of the two core variables.According to this,this paper speculates that China’s tourism may be in the first half of the "porter hypothesis" development stage,which shows that the level of GTFP of China’s tourism has declined under the environmental control,but this decline in productivity is gradually disappearing with the continuous advancement of technology,it will reach the "U" curve inflection point,and enter the second half of the "Porter Hypothesis" development stage(the right half of the "U" curve)finally.Based on the conclusions above,this paper proposes specific path to upgrade the GTFP of China’s tourism,such as green concept guidance,green policy promotion,green financial support,green management supervision,green industry integration,green system construction,green technological innovation and green project demonstration,global tourism concept popularized,green tourism demand guidance,and green education promotion nationally,etc.更多还原