【作者】 李洁；

【导师】 修长百；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 建立于自然循环基础上的农业产业,在全球的碳循环中扮演着重要角色。农户作为最主要的农业生产主体,其所追求的高效益、低风险的生产目标对农业生态系统的碳循环干扰严重,该问题在生态脆弱的农牧交错带尤为凸显。这样碳失衡的生产方式不但不利于全球2050年碳中和目标的实现,也不利于农业可持续的发展,更不利于农户长久的增产增收。随着我国“生态优先,绿色发展”理念的提出,探寻有利于农业碳中和的生产方式势在必行。而农业碳中和实现的关键在于源头的控制与治理,源头管控的关键在于生产者行为的规范,因此,开展农户生产行为的研究对于实现农业碳中和显得尤为重要。本文以农户生产行为作为研究对象,以微观经济学、农业经济学、行为经济学、制度经济学、计量经济学等相关经济学理论与方法为基础,以内蒙古农牧交错带作为典型调研区域,从心理主观与外界客观两个角度,对有关的农业碳中和农户生产行为展开理论分析与实证研究,旨在厘清农户生产行为的形成机理与影响因素的作用路径,并为制定促进农户实施农业碳中和生产行为的政策措施提供参考依据。主要研究内容与结论如下:首先,从理论角度对农户生产行为特性、生产行为形成机理与影响因素类型展开分析。通过梳理相关文献与基础理论发现,农户在生产决策过程中不但追求经济利益的最大化与投入成本的最小化,也会追求公平、互惠、利他与满意等目标,同时尽可能规避不确定条件下所带来的风险,因此农户是追求效用最大化与风险最小化的有限理性人,其生产行为是经过价值判断后才会采取的行动。借助计划行为理论模型、保护动机理论模型以及技术接受理论模型,结合农业碳中和的实现途径,利用生态环境演变的MA分析框架,本文构建了农业碳中和相关的农户生产行为形成机理框架,即农户生产行为的实施决定于其生产意愿,而意愿的产生则取决于两点,一是农户对于现有行为存在威胁的认知与感知程度,另一个是农户对于将要采取的生产行为所持有的行为效果、自我能力以及主观规范的评价。因此,农户行为认知、农户行为主观评价、农户生产意愿组成了心理主观因素,受到外界客观因素影响共同对农户生产行为产生作用。其次,依托于理论分析所构建的农户生产行为分析框架,本文从实证角度,对农户生产行为的形成机理与影响因素作用路径开展验证性与探索性的分析与探讨。利用描述性统计法,对农户行为认知水平、农户行为主观评价状况、农户生产意愿以及农户行为的采纳现状作出分析,发现农户现阶段呈现出认知水平有限、主观行为评价不够积极、生产意愿较高、行为采纳水平一般的特点。利用SEM结构方程模型,对自我行为评价指标间的逻辑关系以及农户生产意愿的形成机理展开研究。发现农户的行为效果评价对自我能力评价水平以及自我能力评价水平对主观规范均有积极的显著影响。农户生产意愿的形成机理与理论分析框架中的描述一致,农户的严重性与易感性认知水平,以及农户的行为效果评价、自我能力评价与主观规范对于生产意愿均有显著的积极影响,其中严重性认知影响最大。利用多元线性回归法、多元层级回归法以及Logit-ISM模型,探讨了外界客观因素对农户行为认知、农户行为主观评价、农户生产意愿以及行为实施的影响状况。研究发现:农户个人特征、家庭特征以及社会特征均会对上述内容产生不同的影响;农户信息获取能力、环境责任感以及生产习惯越强,意愿向行为转化效率越高;出现农资购买困难、突发性的灾害以及农户行为评价消极三种状况时,会直接导致行为与意愿的悖离;农户较高的风险厌恶特点会阻碍农户生产行为的发生。最后,基于实证研究结论,本文结合激励理论内容构建了农户行为优化的机制与体系。实证研究的结论表明,制度的缺乏与体系的不健全是造成行为采纳水平较低的主要原因。利用规范性研究的方法,结合激励理论内容,提出了以激励与约束机制相结合、成本与收益均衡以及因地制宜为原则的生产行为优化机制,即内部激励机制、外部激励机制、内部约束机制与外部约束机制。依据机制内容构建了相应的技术支撑体系、农户成长培训体系以及制度与法律体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on natural cycles,Agriculture plays an important role in the global carbon cycle.As the most important agricultural production entity,farmers’pursuits of high-benefit and low-risk production target have a serious impact on the carbon cycle of the agricultural ecosystem,which is particularly prominent in the agro-pastoral transitional zone with fragile ecological characters.Such carbon-imbalanced production mode is not only bad for the realization of the global carbon neutral target in 2050,but also is adverse to the sustainable development of agriculture and increases of crop production and income of agriculture industry in long-term.With China’s ecological priority and the concept of green development,it is imperative to explore the production mode that is conducive to carbon neutral agriculture.The key to the realization of agricultural carbon neutrality lies in the control and governance of the source,the core of the source control lying in the producer’s production behavior.Therefore,it is particularly important to carry out research on farmers’ production behavior for the realization of agricultural carbon neutrality.The research object is based on microeconomics,agricultural economics,behavioral economics,institutional economics,econometrics and other relevant economic theories and methods as the foundation and the agro-pastoral transitional zone in Inner Mongolia was taken as a typical research area.This paper also makes a theoretical analysis and empirical study on the agricultural carbon neutrality and farmers’ production behaviors from the perspectives of psychological subjectivity and external objectivity in order to clarify the formation mechanism of farmers’ production behaviors and the action path of influencing factors,in addition to provide reference for formulating policies and measures to promote farmers’ implementation of agricultural carbon neutral production behaviors.The main research results were as follows,Firstly,the characteristics,formation mechanism and influencing factors of farmers’ production behaviors were analyzed theoretically.By reviewing the related articles and the discovery of basic theory,farmers in the process of decision making not only seek for the profit maximization and the cost minimization,but also pursue fair reciprocal altruism and satisfaction goals along with evading the risks as much as possible under uncertainty,which means the farmers are the bounded rationality of pursuing utility maximization and risk minimization whose production behaviors are taken action via value judgment.With the help of the planned behavior theory model,the protection motivation theory model and the technology acceptance theory model,combined with the realization approach of agricultural carbon neutralization and the MA analysis framework of ecological environment evolution,this paper constructs the mechanism framework of farmers’ production behaviors related to agricultural carbon neutralization.That means the implementation of the peasant household production behaviors depends on their production intention.It depends on two things:one is the degree of cognition and perception of the threat to existing behavior;the other one is the evaluation of the effect of farmers’ behavior on their own ability and subjective norm.As the result,the cognition of peasant households’ behavior,the subjective evaluation and production intention constitute psychological subjective factors are affected by external objective factors and have effects on peasant households’production behaviors.Secondly,based on the analysis framework of farmers’ production behaviors constructed by theoretical analysis,this paper conducts a confirmatory and exploratory analysis and the discussion on the formation mechanism of farmers’ production behaviors along with the action path of influencing factors from an empirical perspective.By using the descriptive statistics,analyzing farmers’ behavioral cognition level,subjective evaluation of farmers’ behaviors,production intention and adoption status of farmers’behavior,we could find that at present the farmers show limited cognition level,inactive evaluation of subjective behavior,high production intention and limited level of behavior adoption.Using the SEM structural equation model,the logical relationship between the self-behavior evaluation indexes as well as the formation mechanism of farmers’ production intention were studied and we could find that the evaluation of farmers’ behavior effect had a positive and significant influence on the self-ability evaluation level and the self-ability evaluation level on the subjective norm.The formation mechanism of farmers’production intentions is consistent with the description in the theoretical analysis framework.The severity and susceptibility cognition level of farmers,as well as the behavioral effect evaluation of farmers,along with the self-ability evaluation and subjective norm all have significant positive effects on the production intention,among which the severity cognition has the greatest effect.Making use of multiple linear regression method,multiple level regression method and Logit-ISM model,this paper discusses the influence of external objective factors on the subjective evaluation of farmers’ willingness to produce and the implementation of farmers’ behaviors.It is found that the individual characteristics of farmers,family characteristics and social characteristics will have different impacts on the above contents.The stronger the farmers’ information acquisition ability,environmental responsibility and production habits are obtained,the higher the efficiency of transforming willingness to behaviors are achieved.When there are three situations,namely,the difficulty in purchasing agricultural materials,unexpected natural disasters and the negative evaluation of farmers’ behavior,it will directly lead to the deviation between behavior and intention.Farmers’ high risk aversion will hinder their production behavior.Finally,based on the empirical research conclusion,this paper incorporates the content of theories of Motivation to construct the optimization of mechanism and system of farmers’ behaviors.The conclusion of the empirical study shows that the lack of institution and unsound system are the main reasons for the low level of behavior adoption.Utilizing the method of normative research and combining with the content of motivation theories,this paper puts forward a production behavior optimization mechanism which combines motivate and constraint mechanism with the principle of cost and benefit balance as well as measures according to local conditions,namely internal incentive mechanism and external incentive mechanism,internal constraint mechanism and external constraint mechanismAccording to the content of the mechanism,the corresponding technical support system,training system,system and legal system for farmers’ growth were constructed.更多还原