新型城镇化对公共资本供给的影响研究

【作者】 王敏；

【导师】 王琴梅；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 政治经济学， 2019， 博士

【摘要】 伴随着我国经济发展水平的提升,我国城镇化进程不断加快,已经处于“以人为核心”的新型城镇化发展阶段。新型城镇化作为产业集聚、人口集中以及现代生活方式在人口中扩展过程的有机统一,产生了大量的公共资本需求。正所谓“需求产生供给”,新型城镇化进程产生的对大量公共资本的需求,必然形成对公共资本供给的强大拉动作用。本文正是要采用理论和实证相结合的方法,深入系统地研究新型城镇化对公共资本供给的影响,重点是解释如下问题:这种影响机理是什么?影响程度又如何?中国新型城镇化过程中如何合理地供给公共资本?这些问题的解答对于推动我国新型城镇化顺利进展和公共资本供给水平的提升具有非常重要的意义。本文综合运用文献研究法、规范分析与实证相结合法、定量与定性相结合法等研究方法,在综述前人研究成果的基础上,首先明确界定核心概念,然后着重揭示新型城镇化拉动公共资本供给的内在机理,并运用中国2000-2016年的全国面板数据进行实证检验。围绕这个中心,全文的主要内容和基本结论如下:(一)核心概念界定。新型城镇化是指以人为核心,涵盖经济发展、人口发展、社会发展、绿色发展四个方面的综合型城镇化。新型城镇化是对传统城镇化的修正与优化,重点体现以人为核心,更加注重质量和内涵发展。公共资本是指政府通过财政支出投资于基础设施领域所形成的资本。公共资本供给是指以政府为供给主体,以财政支出为供给途径的公共产品形成过程,即公共资本的供给最终形成了公共产品。(二)内在机理揭示。本文运用经典的刘易斯二元经济模型,托达罗模型等城镇化理论,运用经典的外部规模经济、要素禀赋等产业集聚理论,运用经典的“推-拉”理论、舒尔茨的成本-收益理论、新经济地理学等农民市民化理论,运用经典的公共资本及其供给的理论,深入揭示了新型城镇化拉动公共资本供给的内在机理,这可以归纳为:(1)新型城镇化作为产业集聚的过程将倒逼政府增加公共资本供给;(2)新型城镇化作为人口集中和农民市民化的过程将倒逼政府增加公共资本供给。(三)实证检验。这部分首先对中国2000-2016年城镇化发展现状、公共资本供给现状进行了梳理,并构建综合评价指标体系对其进行科学描述,这构成了文章的研究基础,在此基础上,采用耦合度函数、耦合协调度模型、面板回归模型、门槛面板模型、空间杜宾模型、VAR模型等计量模型对新型城镇化通过产业集聚拉动经济性公共资本供给、通过人口集中和农民市民化拉动社会性公共资本供给分别进行了实证检验。实证检验结论是:(1)我国大部分地区新型城镇化水平与产业集聚水平是协调的,部分地区有超前或滞后的数据表象;产业集聚水平在新型城镇化对公共资本供给的影响中存在门槛效应,在不同产业集聚水平下新型城镇化对公共资本的供给产生的影响是不同的;产业集聚水平对公共资本供给及交通类、环保类、通讯类经济性公共资本供给均是正向影响关系,对能源类公共资本呈现负向影响关系,东部地区的结果较中西部结果更加显著。(2)新型城镇化发展会带动外出务工农民的收入;新型城镇化及农民市民化程度增加了社会性公共资本的供给,地方财政支配能力、汲取能力均促进了社会性公共资本的供给。(3)新型城镇化与公共资本供给存在长期均衡关系。(四)相应的对策建议。针对以上理论和实证分析结果,本文就如何更好地实现新型城镇化对公共资本供给的拉动作用提出的主要政策建议有:(1)通过优化户籍制度,建立健全新生代农民工融入城市机制、深化财税体制改革来共同促进进城务工农民市民化;(2)按照产业集聚需求进行经济性公共产品布局,按照居民生活水平提升的需求进行社会性公共产品布局,共同拉动公共资本的合理供给。本文的创新之处是:(1)从“需求产生供给”的视角,探讨新型城镇化“倒逼”、拉动公共资本供给问题,这在现有研究中是独特的、新颖的。(2)基于经典的城镇化理论、产业集聚理论和公共资本供给相关理论,深入揭示了新型城镇化拉动公共资本供给的内在机理,这在现有研究中也是少见的。(3)在实证研究中,通过构建综合指标体系,利用改进熵值法客观测度了新型城镇化的发展状况,公共资本供给现状,同时运用我国的省级面板数据验证了 2000-2016年产业集聚水平及农民市民化在新型城镇化拉动公共资本供给过程中的门槛效应,深入剖析新型城镇化对中国公共资本供给的拉动效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of China’s economy,China’s urbanization process has been accelerating,and is already in the new "people-oriented"urbanization development phase.As the organic integration ofmodem industries,population concentration and modern people’s lifestyles,new urbanization has generated a large amount of public capital demand.As the phrase goes like "Demand generates supply",the demand for a large amount of public capital generated by the new urbanization process will inevitably form a powerful pulling effect on the supply of public capital.This paper is to apply theory integrating with empirical methods to study the impact of new urbanization on the supply of public capital systematically.The key is to study its influencing mechanism,the influencing extent,and the rational supply of public capital in the process of new urbanization.The analysis on the above problems are of great significance for promoting China’s new urbanization process.On the basis of literature review and the previous research results,applying the methods of normative and empirical analysis,quantitative and qualitative research,the paper focuses on revealing the inner mechanism of new urbanization’s promotion on public capital with China’s 2000-2016 national panel data for empirical testing.The main contents and basic conclusions are as follows:1.Definition of the core concepts.New urbanization is the revision and optimization of traditional urbanization,focusing on people-oriented development and paying more attention to quality and connotation development.Public capital refers to the capital formed by the government investing in infrastructure through fiscal expenditure.The supply of public capital eventually formed the public goods.In this research,the supply of public capital and public goods were classified as one category.2.The revelation of internal mechanism.The classical Classic Lewis dual economic model,Todaro model and other urbanization theories,industrial agglomeration theory of external scale economy,factor endowment,new economic geography,Push-pull theory,Schultz cost-benefit theory and other farmer citizenization theories,public capital and its supply theory are applied to reveal the internal mechanism of new urbanization to stimulate the supply of public capital in depth,which can be summarized as follows:(1)The process of new urbanization as a modern industrial agglomeration will force the government to raise the supply of public capital;(2)The process of new urbanization as population concentration and farmers citizenization will force the government to raise the supply public capital.3.Empirical test.This part firstly reveals the status quo of China’s urbanization development and the public capital supply in 2000-2016,and constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system to scientifically describe it which constitutes the research basis of the article.On this basis,the coupling degree and the econometric models are applied,such as function,coupling coordination model,panel regression model,threshold effect model,spatial Dubin model,VAR model,etc.,to evaluate the new urbanization state,and its stimulation on economic public capital supply through industrial agglomeration,and the promotion of social public estate through population concentration and peasant citizenization.The capital supply was tested separately.The empirical analysis’ conclusions are as follows:(1)The level of new urbanization in most areas of China is coordinated with the level of industrial agglomeration,and some regions have advanced or lagging data representations;the level of industrial agglomeration has a threshold in the impact of new urbanization on the supply of public capital.The effect of new urbanization on the supply of public capital is different under different industrial agglomeration levels;the level of industrial agglomeration has a positive impact on public capital supply and transportation,environmental protection,and communication-typed economic public capital supply.It has a negative impact on energy-based public capital,and the results in the eastern region are more significant than those in the central and western regions.(2)The new urbanization development wil]increase the income of migrant workers;the new urbanization and the peasant citizenship increase the supply of social public capital,and the ability of local fiscal control ability to promote the supply of social public capital.(3)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between new urbanization and public capital supply.4.Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.In response to the above theoretical and empirical analysis results,the policy recommendations proposed in this paper for better realization of the new urbanization’s promotion on the public capital supply are:(1)to improve the household registration system,establish and improve the mechanism for new generation of migrant workers to move into the urban area,and deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system to jointly promote the urbanization of migrant workers;(2)According to the needs of industrial agglomeration,the layout of economic public products will be carried out according to the needs of the improvement of residents’ living standards,and the rational supply of public capital will be jointly promoted.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of"demand generates supply",the problem of new urbanization’s driving force on the supply of public capital are explored,which is new and unique in the existing research.(2)Based on the classical urbanization theory,industrial agglomeration theory and the theory of public capital supply,the internal mechanism of the new urbanization to stimulate the supply of public capital is revealed in great depth,which is rare in the existing research.(3)In the empirical study,this paper builds a comprehensive index system,using the improved entropy method to objectively measure the new development of urbanization,public capital supply situation,and uses the country’s provincial panel data to verify the industrial concentration level and urbanization of farmers in 2000-2016 in the new threshold effect in the process of urbanization driven public capital supply,further analyzes the new urbanization pulling effect on the Chinese public capital supply.更多还原