【作者】 周亮；

【导师】 徐建刚；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 城市与区域规划， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 近10年来,淮河流域城镇人口激增,工业化与农业现代化快速发展,致使流域水资源需求量大增,水环境污染压力空前。同时,长期的污染积累,持续的污染增量,粗放型增长方式,非理性的空间规划布局,以及唯“GDP论”的考核模式,加剧了流域居民的生存环境恶化,流域癌症村数量不断增加,环境成本与健康成本激增,“人-水”矛盾愈发尖锐。针对中国水资源短缺、水污染严重、水生态恶化严重制约社会经济发展的重大发展问题。2012年《国务院关于实行最严格水资源管理制度的意见》提出未来中国将建立最严格的水资源管理制度,确立了以水资源开发利用控制,用水效率控制,水功能区限制纳污的“三条红线“为目标,保障经济和社会的可持续发展。然而,在“东部开放,中部崛起”战略大背景下,未来的15年(2015-2030年),淮河流域依然需要承担超过75亿吨粮食增产任务,承接大批来自长三角的污染转移产业,这无疑徒增了流域水污染防治难度与变数。因此,当最严格的水资源管理制度遭遇“掠夺式”发展的现实,如何在保证经济增长的同时,准确的解析污染来源,切实可行的实施最严格的水资源保护管理制度,是流域实现健康、绿色、可持续发展的关键。鉴于上述认识,论文以大尺度的淮河流域为研究对象,以“人-水”关系和谐发展为目标,围绕流域经济发展的水资源环境支撑力这条主线,在充分考虑流域自然特征与经济发展特征内在规律的前提下,借助复杂理论与极限增长理论,以“3S”地理空间分析为主要手段,通过构建耦合协调模型,“3维”水资源环境支撑能力评价模型,系统的从流域水环境敏感性、水污染压力、水污染防控预警能力三个方面,对淮河流域经济发展的水资源支撑能力进行综合评价与分区。以期为构建大尺度流域可持续发展和环境保护提供定量的科学决策依据。鉴此,论文在梳理总结国内外相关研究文献的基础上,首先,采用叠置分析法、空间探索性分析模型以及重力模型等方法。首次系统的对淮河流域城市化、工业化、农业现代化水资源、水环境的空间格局特征进行了细致分析,在此基础上机进一步借助耦合协调模型揭示了流域经济增长与水环境污染之间的内在关系。结果发现:2000-2010年淮河流域“三化”发展迅速,“三化”对流域水环境污染压力持续增大。其中,城镇化与农业化对水环境胁迫程度明显上升,工业化则呈微弱的下降趋势。2000-2010年流域人口城市化率和土地城市化率年均分别上升1.34%与1.51%,十年间流域超过2200万农村人口转移到城镇,超过4498.45 km2土地转化为城镇建设用地。流域污染产业空间集聚趋势明显,工业产值在GDP中的比重已经达到50.93%,年均增长约1%。流域粮食产量增加明显,畜禽养殖规模化速度提升,化肥使用量年均增长14.6%,农业非点源污染已经超过点源上升为流域的主要污染来源。2000-2012年流域供水量、用水量与用水效率均呈显著的上升趋势,流域86个国控监测断面水质总体趋好,但V类以上水质比重仍然较高,重度污染区域面积呈现较明显缩减趋势,但污染物排放的高值区的空间分布格局未发生明显变化,依然集中分布在流域中游的沙颍河、洪河、涡河等子流域和流域省界附近(跨省断面污染严重)。耦合协调分析表明,流域经济发展与水环境之间耦合协调度水平均偏低,流域35个地市耦合度与协调度平均值分别为0.292与0.140。流域耦合协调度空间差异显著,整体呈东高西低的空间分布特征。其次,在对经济发展与水资源环境系统分析的基础上,通过构建基于水环境敏感性(WES),压力(WEPC)与防治能力(WPPC)的“三维”水资源环境支撑力模型。分别从流域自然基底、水质-水量,城市化、工业化、农业化,监测预警等10个方面对流域进行分析,从而进一步对流域173个县市(市区)水资源环境支撑能力进行了综合评价。评价结果表明,流域经济发展的水资源环境支撑能力整体水平偏低,流域173个县市中有87个支撑力偏低,占流域总面积的57.12%。支撑力空间格局整体呈现淮河干流以南地区高于干流以北地区,下游地区>上游地区>沂沭泗河流域地区≥中游地区的空间分布特征规律。同时,以郑州-开封为支撑力低值中心,呈现由低到高的圈层梯度扩散分布规律,即以郑州-开封经济区为核心的地区,支撑能力最低,邻近地区次之,距离中心越远支撑能力则越高。流域水环境敏感性整体较高,流域104个县市水环境敏感性中等偏高,占流域总面积的52.44%。敏感性较低的地区主要分布在南水北调东线工程以东,淮河干流以南,中游大部分地区敏感性总体较高。流域水环境污染压力整体偏高,173个县市(市区)中89个污染压力偏高,占流域面积的55.75%,其中农业面源与城镇生活污水对流域污染胁迫程度最高,污染压力空间格局呈现东部整体高于西部,市辖区高于一般县区的特征。流域污染防治能力普遍较低,173个县市(市区)中,88个县市(市区)防治能力中等偏低。防治能力高值区主要分布在下游地区与南水北调东线工程以东地区。形成敏感性、压力、防治能力与支撑能力空间差异显著的原因与流域综合评价体系的30项指标息息相关,但其中发挥主导作用的仍然是区位、自然基础、区域发展水平、水资源效率和水环境管理水平。最后,依据流域“三维”支撑力模型中水环境敏感性、污染压力与防治能力的评价结果,对流域进行基于支撑力的水资源环境分区。并依据分区类型对流域进行以县域为单元的城镇空间布局、产业布局与环境保护政策引导。分区研究表明,流域8种分区类型中高敏感-低压-低防治类型(H-L-L型)在流域分布最广,约占流域面积的1/4,其次是高敏感-高压-高防治类型(H-H-H型)、低敏感-高压-高防控类型(L-H-H型)与低敏感-低压-低防控类型(L-L-L型),四个类型共占流域面积的73.67%,是流域水资源环境支撑能力的主要类型。针对不同分区类型特征,提出切合流域实际的综合空间发展策略,即优化流域国土与城镇空间布局,促进流域城乡统筹融合,调整流域工农业产业结构,适度承接转移产业等。淮河流域下游以及干流以南地区虽然污染的胁迫约束程度也较高,但其水环境敏感性较小,污染防治能力较高,在严格环境准入和排放标准前提下,适宜布局基础产业;流域中游和沂沭泗河流域水环境压力大,迫切需要产业结构调整和转型升级;流域上游,饮用水源地,南水北调工程沿线以及流域生态极度脆弱区,建议严格的限制或保护性开发,确保良好生态环境功能和清洁水源供给。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent 10 years,urban population increases sharply in the Huaihe River basin.Urbanization and industrialization also develop rapidly;chemical fertilizers and pesticides input in agriculture are continuing increase.As a result,the water resource demand in the basin increases and the pressure of water environment pollution is unprecedented.At the same time,because of the long-term accumulation of pollution,extensive growth mode,"GDP" conducted performance evaluation,growing numbers of cancer villages,residents living environment deterioration,environmental and health costs are soaring,conflicts between water and human are more serious Facing this dilemma,in 2012 The State Council’s Opinions on the Strictest Water Resources Management System clearly states that China will create the most strict water resources management system.Then the water pollution problem has redraw attentions.However,under the strategy of Eastern open and Western Development,the basin needs to take on the new capacity of more than 7.5 billion tons food,to undertake a large number of high-pollution industries from Yangtze River Delta region in the next 10 years.There is no doubt that the difficulty of water pollution prevention and control increase.As a consequence,when the most strict water resources management system meets the development of the "predatory" reality,it is very important to ensure economic growth and implement the strict management system of water resources protection.It is the key to the river basin sustainable development.In view of above,this paper takes the large-scale basin as the research unit,regards the harmonious development relationship between human and water as the goal,and gives full consideration to the space-time characteristics of water resource and the inherent law of economic growth.Then it uses the complex theory and the theory of limit to growth,focuses on the water environment support under the economic growth of the basin.Taking the "3S" geographical spatial analysis as the main means,building the coupling coordination model and "3D"(three-dimensional)water resources supporting capacity of water environment evaluation model.Finally evaluating the water environment capacity,the water environment pressure caused by urbanization,industrialization and agricultural,and the warning capability to the early basin pollution.Such evaluations are all on the river basin scale.After that,it makes a comprehensive evaluation and distinguishes the characteristics of economic growth supportability.We expect to provide quantitative and scientific decision basis in building large-scale basin economic development pattern and pollution control long-term mechanism.In view of this,based on the summary of relevant research literature home and abroad.First of all,using factor overlay method,exploratory spatial analysis model and gravity model.We analyze and identify characteristics of temporal and spatial pattern evolution of the urbanization,industrialization and agricultural development in the basin,and also analyze the spatial characteristics and rules of water resources.Then by using the coupling coordination analysis,we reveal the internal relationship between economic development and water pollution.We find that from the year 2000 to the year 2012 with the rapid development of urbanization,industrialization and agricultural,the water stress caused by urbanization and agricultural is clearly on the rise,the water stress caused by urbanization is on a slight decline.From the year 2000 to the year 2012,in the basin the population urbanization has increased by 1.34%per year,land urbanization rate has increased by 1.51%,more than 22 million rural population has moved to the city,more than 4498.45km2 land has been converted to urban land.In the basin,polluting industries agglomeration trend is obvious.Industrial output accounted for more than 50.93%of GDP,with an average annual growth of nearly 1%.Grain and livestock production increase significantly,chemical fertilizer input increase with an average annual rate of 14.6%.From the year 2000 to the year 2012,water consumption and water use efficiency rise significantly,the water quality in the river is getting better overall,but the V class above water proportion is still larger.There is a clear reduce tendency of heavy pollution area,the spatial pattern evolved from concentrated distribution to banded distribution.The coupling coordination between economy development in the basin and water resources environment level is low.The average value of coupling degree among the 35 cities is only 0.292,the average value of coordination degree is 0.14.Therefore,the coupling coordination level is very different among areas,and the overall trend reveals that the level in the east is higher than the west.Secondly,on the basis of the analysis on economic development and water resources environment,by constructing "3D" model of water resources environment supporting force based on capacity,pressure and control capability,the carrying capacity of basin water resources environment are evaluated from the natural environment watershed,environmental capacity,the characteristics of water quality and water volume;the coercive pressure on water resources environment are evaluated in partition from the aspects of watershed urbanization,industrialization and agricultural modernization;the watershed pollution prevention and control capabilities are evaluated from three aspects of prevention and early-warning management,which include water pollution management,monitoring and early warning;ultimately,a comprehensive evaluation of water resources environment supporting capacity of the basin which covers 173 counties.The results show that overall level of watershed supporting force is low,the supporting force of 87 counties of watershed is low,which accounting for 57.12%of the watershed area Overall support force presents characteristics with the south region of Huaihe River Valley higher than north region,the downstream>Upstream>Yishusi River≥midstream.Meanwhile,the watershed supporting force value distributes from low to high with a gradient diffusion of spheres,which making Zhengzhou-Kaifeng as the center of low-value of support force.Namely,making Zhengzhou-Kaifeng Economic Zone as the core of the region with the minimum support capabilities,the neighborhood areas are higher,the further,the distance from the center is,the higher,the support capacity is.Overall carrying capacity of basin water environment is low,the carrying capacity of 104 counties is medium-low,accounting for 52.44%of the watershed area The areas with high carrying capacity are mainly distributed in the east areas of the North Water Transfer Project,south of the Huaihe River,the overall level of carrying capacity in most parts of the midstream areas is low.Overall watershed pollution pressure of 173 counties is high,which the highest pressure comes from agricultural non-point source pollution and urban sewage,the pollution pressure of 89 counties of watershed(≥0.20),accounting for 55.75%of the watershed area.The watershed pollution pressure presents characteristics with the east of watershed higher than west,municipal districts higher than general counties.Watershed pollution prevention and control ability is generally low,the value of 88 counties(urban)is medium-low(≥0.4).The High-value areas are located in downstream areas and the east areas of the North Water Transfer Project.At last,based on the evaluation results of bearing capacity,pressure and preservation ability of river basin in "3D" support model,we make a partition of water resources and environment in the river basin.And we scientifically conduct industrial layout and environmental protection based on that partition.The partition shows that among the eight types of partition in basin area,low bearing capacity-low pressure-low prevention ability(L-L-L)is the most widely distributed type in the basin,making up about a quarter of the basin area.The following are low bearing capacity-high pressure-high preservation ability(L-H-H),high bearing capacity-high pressure-high preservation ability(H-H-H)and(H-L-L)types,these four types account for 73.67%of the basin area and are the main types of supporting capacity of the basin.According to different partition types,we come up with strategies like optimized urban-rural space layout in basin area,so as to speed up the combined development of urban and rural areas,and adjust the industrial and agricultural structure in river basin,moderately handling the transformation of industries.To be specific,the pressure from the water environment is small in the downstream and the southern area of the mainstream in Huaihe River Basin,and the supporting capacity and pollution prevention ability are high,under strict environmental access and emission standards,that area is suitable for arranging traditional and basic industries;the water environment of midstream and YiShuSi River Basin area shows high pressure,and is in urgent need of industrial structure adjustment and transformation;the upstream,major sources of drinking water,areas along the east line of south-to-north water diversion project,as well as some extremely fragile areas should be limitedly or protectively exploited,ensuring the ecology and environment functions well and having clean water supply.更多还原