【作者】 徐征；

【导师】 李俊江；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 资本账户开放作为自布雷顿森林体系终止后同步于世界经济全球化的重要经济改革内容,其对世界经济最终的贡献始终存在争论。中国改革开放四十年间,不同于对国际贸易的积极参与持续降低关税,中国的资本账户开放始终以渐进推行为第一原则,当前的资本账户开放水平与主要发达国家相比具有较大差距。随着中国经济体量增大和改革开放进入新阶段,中国既需要进一步推进资本账户开放以寻找经济的新增长点,国际社会也对中国资本账户开放产生新要求。2012年中国人民银行调查统计司发表文章建议加速资本账户开放,计划在2020年基本实现资本账户的全面开放,但针对这一提法,大量专家学者关心中国在国内一系列改革尚未完成情况下进行资本账户开放可能产生何种程度的成本,引起了学界关于资本账户开放的普遍讨论,并延续至今。在国内外改革要求和学界争论的背景下,理清资本账户开放对经济产出的作用机理,根据中国经济的现实发展情况,提出帮助推进资本账户开放的收益大于成本的建议尤为具有现实意义。本文通过对相关文献梳理总结和相关理论的思考,赞同资本账户开放具有“双向效应”,即资本账户开放可以通过优化资本配置和人力资本溢出效应促进经济增长,同时也会因资本账户开放造成的资本流动体量与方向的改变产生抑制经济平稳发展的成本,一个国家的制度与经济环境是否超过阈值决定了资本账户开放的最终净效用,不赞同一些研究对资本账户开放作用做单向判断的做法。在分析资本流动变化后发现高收入国家的资本账户开放结果整体优于非高收入国家后,表明各国异质性是影响资本账户开放最终结果的关键因素。进一步借助美国、德国、日本、拉美三国和泰国的资本账户开放国际经验,证明了国内经济与制度等“拉动因素”与外部经济环境与压力等“推动因素”都会影响资本账户开放最终结果。为构建均衡分析框架,文章还分析了经济与金融周期和美元周期的判定与划分方式,并总结了当前世界经济环境情况和中国的外部压力情况,为实证分析和针对中国资本账户开放的分析提供研究基础。实证研究部分首先通过基础回归证明了样本期内资本账户开放对高收入国家经济有明显的促进作用,但对其他低收入国家作用并不显著,利用系统广义矩估计和改变资本账户开放指数衡量方式做稳健性检验也得到了相同结论。用实际资本账户开放指数替换法定资本账户开放指数的回归结果还表明直接投资和证券投资方面的开放对高收入国家经济的促进作用更明显,而直接投资与其他投资对非高收入国家的经济增长作用更明显。实证研究的第二部分利用门限回归模型验证资本账户开放的门槛效应,结果表明资本账户开放在金融部门比较优势、外汇储备和制度环境方面均存在门槛效应,其中制度环境的门槛效应最为显著。实证分析的第三部门利用分组回归方式探究外部因素对资本账户开放的影响,结果证明在美元处于弱势期时,资本账户开放对高收入国家经济具有促进作用,同时,无论世界经济周期处于繁荣或衰退阶段,资本账户开放均有利于高收入国家经济发展,但在经济衰退期不利于非高收入国家的经济发展。实证分析的结果证明了各国资本账户开放既受国内诸多“拉动因素”影响,也受到外部“推动因素”影响,同时证明了高收入发达国家的资本账户开放期望收益大于其他非高收入国家。本文最终将研究标的锁定在中国后,通过对中国改革开放后国际收支平衡表所记录资本流动情况的分析,发现随着中国资本账户开放的进行,资本流动体量显著增加,但资本外逃和资本流动净收益率长期较低等问题开始显性化。在分析中国制度与金融改革尚需进行,外部经济环境尚未到窗口期的基础上,认为中国中、短期内应保持资本账户开放的渐进原则,让资本账户开放进程滞后于中国内部的制度优化与金融改革,“三元悖论”也要求中国继续进行汇率改革,同时建议应充分考虑当前外部经济环境与中国所承受的外部压力对进行资本账户开放的影响。并提出可以与“一带一路”相关国家进行有限的资本账户内容互补性合作,如资本账户开放内容的试点试验,在效果理想的情况下扩大到面对全世界的资本账户开放。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important part of economic reform since the end of Bretton Woods system,capital account openness has always been controversial about its ultimate contribution to the world economy.Itisdifferent from the active participation in international trade or reduce tariffs in the past 40 years of Chinese reform and openness.Chinese capital account openness has always been based on the principle of gradual promotion.Compared with the major developed countries,current level of capital account openness is far behind.With the increase of Chinese economic volume and the new stage of reform and openness up.For the reason to promote capital account openness to find new economic growth points and commit the international community new requirements for Chinese capital account openness.In 2012,the survey and Statistics Department of the people’s Bank of China published an article proposing to speed up the openness of the capital account and basically realize the full openness of the capital account in 2020.At the same time,a large number of experts and scholars are concerned about the possible cost of the of the capital account opennesswhich has caused the academic discussion on the capital account openness.Under the background of domestic and foreign reform requirements and academic debates,it is of great significance to clarify the mechanism of capital account openness on economic output,and put forward suggestions to help promote capital account openness with more benefits than costs according to the actual development of Chinese economy.Based on the review of relevant literature and the consideration of relevant theories,paper agrees that capital account openness has "two-way effect".Capital account openness can promote economic growth by optimizing capital allocation and human capital spillover effect,and at the same time,it will bring about the cost due to the change of capital flow volume and direction caused by capital account openness Whether the economic environment exceeds the threshold value determines the final net utility of capital account openness,which is not in favor of the one-way judgment of capital account openness utility.After analyzing the change of capital flow,we find that the result of capital account openness in high-income countries is better than that in non high-income countries.With the help of the international experience of capital account openness in the United States,Germany,Japan,three Latin America countries and Thailand,it is proved that "driving factors" such as domestic economy and institution,and "driving factors" such as external economic environment and pressure will affect the final result of capital account openness.In order to construct the equilibrium analysis framework,this paper also analyzes the determination and division of the economic and financial cycle and the dollar cycle,and summarizes the current world economic environment and Chinese external pressure,which provides the research basis for empirical analysis and the analysis of Chinese capital account openness.In the part of empirical research,first of all,through basic regression,it is proved that the capital account openness in the sample period has a significant role in promoting the economy of high-income countries,but not in other low-income countries.The same conclusion is obtained by using the GMM estimation and changing the measurement method of the capital account openness index.The regression results of replacing the statutory capital account open index with the real capital account open index also show that the openness of direct investment and securities investment has a more obvious role in promoting the economy of high-income countries,while the direct investment and other investments have a more obvious role in the economic growth of high-income countries.The second part of the empirical study to use the threshold regression model to verify the threshold effect of capital account openness.The results show that there are threshold effects in financial sector comparative advantage,foreign exchange reserves and institutional environment,among which the threshold effect of institutional environment is the most significant.The third sector of empirical analysis to use the method of group regression to explore the impact of external factors on capital account openness.The results show that when the dollar is in a weak period,capital account openness can promote the economy of high-income countries.At the same time,whether the world economic cycle is in a boom or recession stage,capital account openness is conducive to the economic development of high-income countries,but in a recession It is not conducive to the economic development of non high income countries.The results of empirical analysis prove that capital account openness is influenced by many domestic "pull factors" and external "push factors".At the same time,it proves that the expected return of capital account openness in high-income developed countries is greater than that in other non high-income countries.Finally,after the research object is locked in China,through the analysis of the capital flow recorded in the balance of payments after Chinese reform and openness up,it is found that with the development of Chinese capital account,the amount of capital flow has increased significantly,but the problems of capital flight and the long-term lower net return on capital flow have begun to become obvious.On the basis of analyzing the need for Chinese system and financial reform and the fact that the external economic environment has not yet reached the window period,we believe that China should keep the progressive principle of capital account liberalization in the short and medium term,so that after the capital account liberalization process and the domestic system and financial reform,it is proposed that the limited capital account content complementary reform and cooperation with the "one belt and one way" countries should be carried out.Carry out the pilot test of the content of capital account openness,expand to face the world’s capital account openness under the ideal effect.更多还原