【作者】 高波；

【导师】 李俊江；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 世界经济， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 2013年,习近平主席提出建设“一带一路”倡议。2015年3月,中国政府制定发布了《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》。随着“一带一路”建设的持续推进,中国十分重视加强同沿线国家和地区的贸易和资金往来,共同深化“一带一路”国际合作,齐力打造人类命运共同体。对外直接投资是我国推进“一带一路”建设中的重要内容,截至2018年末,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资存量达到1728亿美元。但是中国在“一带一路”建设中的对外直接投资存在很大的投资风险,因此,如何有效识别、评估和防范投资风险成为“一带一路”建设中迫切需要解决的问题,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国对沿线国家直接投资始终保持着较高的增长率,其进展过程体现如下特征:规模不断扩大但逐步趋缓;区位分布广泛但主要集中在亚洲国家;行业日趋多元化、升级化;承包工程和并购项目持续增多。中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资主要是出于寻求市场、获取资源、寻求效率、寻求技术和提升竞争优势等原因。在“一带一路”沿线的直接投资为中国企业创造了发展机遇。但是,中国企业也遇到了东道国政治条件复杂、企业融资渠道有限、东道国的限制、法律制度存在差异、外部因素导致竞争博弈加剧等制约因素。防范“一带一路”建设中的对外直接投资风险,首先要清晰地识别可能遇到的风险。对外直接投资风险就是企业进行对外直接投资时,可能对企业目标的实现造成不利影响的不确定性,通常具有客观性、损失性、不确定性和可测性等特征。企业的风险识别过程较为复杂,对投资风险的识别要遵守可行性原则、成本收益原则、灵活性原则、综合性原则、系统性原则。通过从国家、企业两个维度,对“一带一路”背景下企业对外直接投资过程中的风险源进行辨别,构建如下风险识别体系:宏观环境风险(包括政治风险、经济风险、社会文化风险和自然灾害风险)和企业层面风险(包括竞争风险、投资风险、管理风险),这些风险具有政治风险占比更高、地区集中导致的风险高、风险管控难度大、风险的损失性更大等特征。中国在“一带一路”建设中对沿线国家进行投资,沿线各国发展程度各异,与我国的经济关联程度差别也较大。从东道国视角评估中国企业“一带一路”建设中的对外直接投资风险,选择“一带一路”沿线33个可获取数据的国家作为研究对象,运用CROIC-IWEP国家风险评级方法(包含5个一级指标和41个二级指标)。通过对二级指标原始数据进行标准化处理,用熵值法测算各个二级指标的离散程度和相应权重矩阵,进而得到各国的风险评分。综合了经济基础、偿债能力、社会弹性、政治风险和对华关系等因素,评价结果显示新加坡、以色列、捷克、匈牙利等国家风险较小;马来西亚、俄罗斯、罗马尼亚和中亚国家的风险可控;东南亚国家投资风险较高,缅甸、菲律宾、越南、老挝等国家排名靠后;埃及、伊拉克、蒙古排在末端,风险高于其他“一带一路”沿线国家。为了进一步管理风险、控制风险,需要从企业视角评估“一带一路”建设中的对外直接投资风险。运用模糊层次分析法(F-AHP)确定出风险权重,并结合“最大隶属度法”得出企业面临的风险程度。评估显示我国企业“一带一路”对外直接投资风险的总得分为72.23分,处于“较高”风险等级。具体来看,宏观环境风险和企业层面风险两个二级指标均在“较高”等级区间内,相比宏观环境风险,企业内部风险稍高一些。影响宏观风险的因素中政治、经济、社会文化、自然灾害四个因素的得分逐个递减,政治风险和经济风险处在“较高”等级,社会文化和自然灾害处在“中”等级,说明政治、经济风险是影响宏观环境风险的重要因素。在此基础上,选取了政治、经济、社会文化、企业自身风险的代理变量作为解释变量建立回归模型,剖析各风险因素对企业绩效的实际影响。中国企业目前对外直接投资风险管理水平总体偏低,需要构建一套系统的、能够提升企业风险管理效率的风险防范体系,为“一带一路”背景下企业进行对外直接投资提供有效保障。首先,要建立风险评估系统,在风险识别基础上对不同类型的风险做出定量评估;其次,要建立风险预警系统,同时借助计算机系统,获取相应的预警信号;最后,要构建风险处置系统,企业应结合自身情况,对不同等级的风险采取相应的风险处置措施。从企业角度,应制定科学的对外直接投资策略,实施高效的内部风险管控,全面提升企业综合竞争力。从国家角度,应建立法律保障制度,提供对外直接投资保护,完善信息服务平台,加强金融领域支持,鼓励自主创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2013,President Xi Jinping proposed “the Belt and Road” initiative.In March 2015,the Chinese government formulated and issued the "Vision and Action for Promoting the Joint Development of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road".With the continuous advancement of “the Belt and Road ” initiative,China attaches great importance to strengthening trade and financial exchanges with countries and regions along the route,jointly deepening “the Belt and Road” international cooperation,and working together to build a community of shared future for humanity.Foreign direct investment is an important part of China’s promotion of “the Belt and Road” construction.As of the end of 2018,China’s investment in the countries along “the Belt and Road” has reached USD 172.8 billion.However,China’s foreign direct investment in the construction of “the Belt and Road” has great investment risks.Therefore,how to effectively identify,evaluate and prevent investment risks has become an urgent problem in the construction of “the Belt and Road”.Construction is of great significance.Since the introduction of “the Belt and Road” initiative,China’s direct investment in countries along the route has maintained a high growth rate,and its progress reflects the following characteristics: the scale is expanding but with gradually decreasing speed;the location is widely distributed,but mainly concentrated in Asia;The industry is becoming more diversified and upgraded;contracting projects and M & A projects continue to increase.Chinese enterprises’ direct investment in countries along “the Belt and Road” is mainly due to reasons such as seeking markets,acquiring resources,seeking efficiency,seeking technology,and enhancing competitive advantages.Direct investment along “the Belt and Road” has created opportunities for Chinese enterprises to communicate with each other through policy communication,facility connectivity,unimpeded trade,financial and financial support,and connectivity between the people.However,Chinese companies have also encountered constraints such as complex political conditions in host countries,limited corporate financing channels,restrictions on investment in specific industries by host countries,differences in legal systems,and increased competition caused by external factors.To prevent foreign direct investment in “the Belt and Road” construction,we must first clearly identify the risks that may be encountered.Foreign direct investment risk is the uncertainty that may adversely affect the achievement of corporate goals when an enterprise makes foreign direct investment.It usually has the characteristics of objectivity,loss,uncertainty and measurability.The risk identification process of an enterprise is relatively complicated.The identification of investment risks must comply with the feasibility principle,cost-benefit principle,flexibility principle,comprehensive principle,and systemic principle.By using the SWOT analysis method to identify the sources of risks in the process of foreign direct investment of enterprises in the context of “the Belt and Road” from the two dimensions of the country and the enterprise,the following risk identification system is constructed: macro environmental risks(including political risks,economic risks,social risks,cultural risks and natural disaster risks)and enterprise-level risks(including competition risks,investment risks,and management risks).These risks have a higher proportion of political risks,higher risks due to regional concentration,more difficult risk management and risk loss Great and other characteristics.China invests in the countries along “the Belt and Road”.The countries along the route have different degrees of development and great differences in economic ties with China.Therefore,China’s proportion of foreign direct investment varies.Evaluate the risks of ODI in Chinese companies’ “Belt and Road” construction from the perspective of the host country,select 33 countries with available data along “the Belt and Road” as research objects,and use the CROIC-IWEP national risk rating method(including 5 first-level indicators and 41 secondary indicators).By standardizing the raw data of the secondary indicators,and using the entropy method to measure the degree of dispersion and the corresponding weight matrix of each secondary indicator,the risk scores of countries are obtained.The assessment integrates factors such as economic foundation,solvency,social resilience,political risks,and relations with China.The results show that Singapore,Israel,the Czech Republic,Hungary,and other countries have less risk;Malaysia,Russia,Romania,and Central Asian countries have controllable risks;Southeast Asian countries have higher investment risks,with Myanmar,the Philippines,Vietnam,and Laos ranking behind;Egypt,Iraq,and Mongolia rank at the end,with higher risks than other “the Belt and Road” countries.In order to further manage and control risks,it is necessary to assess the risks of ODI in the construction of “the Belt and Road” from the perspective of the enterprise.The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(F-AHP)is used to determine the risk weight,and the maximum degree of membership method is used to determine the degree of risk facing the enterprise.The assessment shows that the total score of China’s enterprises on “the Belt and Road” foreign direct investment risk is 72.23 points,which is at a "higher" risk level.Specifically,the two secondary indicators are in the "higher" level range.Compared with the macro environmental risks,the internal risk of the enterprise is slightly higher.Among the factors affecting macro risks,the scores of the four factors of political,economic,socio-cultural,and natural disasters are gradually decreasing.Political and economic risks are at a "higher" level,and socio-cultural and natural disasters are at a "medium" level.Economic risk is an important factor affecting macro environmental risks.On this basis,a regression model was selected by using the proxy variables of politics,economy,social culture,and corporate risk as explanatory variables to analyze the actual impact of each risk factor on corporate performance.The current level of risk management of foreign direct investment in Chinese enterprises is generally low.A systematic risk prevention system that can improve the efficiency of enterprise risk management is needed to provide effective protection for foreign direct investment of enterprises in the context of “the Belt and Road”.First,we need to establish a risk assessment system and make quantitative assessments of different types of risks based on risk identification.Second,we must establish a risk early warning system and use computer systems to obtain corresponding early warning signals.Finally,we must build a risk disposal system.An enterprise shall,in light of its own circumstances,take corresponding risk treatment measures for different levels of risk.From the perspective of the enterprise,it is necessary to formulate a scientific foreign direct investment strategy,implement efficient internal risk management and control,and comprehensively improve the comprehensive competitiveness of the enterprise.From a national perspective,a legal guarantee system should be established to provide protection for foreign direct investment,improve the information service platform,strengthen financial support,and encourage independent innovation.更多还原