【作者】 杨莹；

【导师】 储诚斌；

【作者基本信息】 西北工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 快速发展物流业,提升制造业水平,成为我国国民经济发展的必然趋势。在现实中,制造业的服务需求和物流业的服务供给会出现错位,合作关系的不稳定导致产业之间较低的合作效率。物流业与制造业之间的合作发展问题,成为阻碍物流业和制造业平衡和充分发展的主要问题。制造业是物流业发展的需求基础,物流业同时影响制造业的发展速度,两个产业唇齿相依,相互渗透相互融合。只有推动物流业与制造业的共生演进发展,才能清楚的认识到产业合作阶段,才能实现产业间的有效合作,形成良性合作循环,进而有利于制造业供应链的形成和发展,实现产业双赢。本文以物流业与制造业的共生演进研究作为研究对象,以共生理论的Logistic模型为基础模型梳理并建立物流业与制造业之间存在的多种共生演进模式,分别讨论了物流业与制造业在独立环境下和战略联盟环境下的共生演进关系,以青海省为例进行实证分析。首先,判断物流业与制造业之间是否存在共生关系。运用TOPSIS方法将有关物流业和制造业指标体系的所有数据进行无量纲化处理;通过VAR模型分析判断物流业与制造业之间是否存在共生关系,通过VAR模型的Johansen协整检验得到物流业和制造业存在长期协整关系,通过ADF检验得到数据之间存在平稳发展性,通过参数估计得到物流业与制造业之间存在较高的拟合程度,进一步经过脉冲响应函数和方差分解得到物流业与制造业之间存在的相互影响程度,通过VAR模型的综合分析得到青海省物流业与制造业之间存在共生关系。其次,运用共生理论的Logistic模型为研究的基础模型,建立在产业独立环境下物流业和制造业共生关系中可能存在的多种共生演进模式和模型,计算每种模式和模型的平衡点和讨论其解的稳定性。运用量子遗传算法对每种模式进行仿真实验,对比分析结果得知在产业独立环境下物流业和制造业共生演进关系为合作共生演进关系。在此基础上再次运用量子遗传算法对模型参数进行估计,得到青海省物流业与制造业存在合作型共生演进关系且处于共生演进的成长阶段。从而物流业与制造业此时从相对独立的环境已经演变为战略联盟的合作关系。第三,以共生理论Logistic的延伸模型Lotka-Volterra模型为基础模型,建立物流业与制造业在战略联盟环境下的多种共生演进模式和模型,同时讨论每种物流业与制造业共生演进模式和模型的平衡点和稳定性解。在产业战略联盟环境下,由于物流业和制造业所提供的战略合作共享资源不同,本文讨论了三种可能发生的情况,即当物流业提供的共享资源和制造业提供的资源相等时;当物流业提供的资源小于制造业提供的资源时;当物流业所提供的资源大于制造业提供的资源时,分别运用量子遗传算法对每种共享资源状态下物流业与制造业共生演进模型参数进行估计并仿真拟合。结合不同种类的共生演进模型平衡点和稳定解的参数要求得到每种资源背景下的物流业和制造业共生演进的具体模式,即当物流业与制造业所提供的共享资源相等时,两个产业属于制造业独立发展的偏害型共生演进模式;当物流业提供的共享资源小于制造业所能提供的资源时,两个产业属于物流业独立发展的偏利型共生演进模式;当物流业提供的共享资源大于制造业提供的共享资源时,两个产业属于合作型共生演进模式。最后,针对青海省分析其进行物流业与制造业共生演进研究的重要性,系统分析青海省物流业与制造业共生演进程度较低的原因,以及提出如何提高该省物流业与制造业共生演进程度的对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Developing the logistics industry rapidly and enhancing the manufacturing level have become the inevitable trend of our national economic development.In reality,the service demand of the manufacturing industry and the service supply of the logistics industry will be misplaced,and the instability of the cooperation relationship will lead to the low efficiency of cooperation between the industries.The cooperation development problem between logistics industry and manufacturing industry has become a major problem hindering the balance and full development of logistics industry and manufacturing industry.Manufacturing industry is the basis of demand for the development of logistics industry,the logistics industry also influence the development speed of the manufacturing industry,the two industries are interdependent,mutually integrated and permeated.Only by promoting the development of the symbiosis between the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry,can we clearly realize the stage of industrial cooperation,achieve effective cooperation between industries,and form a virtuous circle of cooperation.Thus,it is conducive to the formation and development of manufacturing supply chain and the realization of winning industry.This paper takes the symbiotic evolution of logistics industry and manufacturing industry as the research object,combines and establishes a variety of symbiotic evolution models between logistics industry and manufacturing industry based on Logistic model of the symbiosis evolution,discusses the symbiosis evolution relationship between the logistics industry and manufacturing industryin an independent environment and strategic alliance environment,takes Qinghai Province as an example of empirical analysis.Firstly,this paper judges whether there is a symbiotic relationship between the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry.The TOPSIS method is used to deal with all the data of the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry index system without dimensionalization.The VAR model is used to analyze and determine whether there is a symbiotic relationship between logistics industry and manufacturing industry.There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry.The symbiotic relationship between manufacturing industry and logistics industry is proved by impulse response function and variance decomposition.It is calculated that there is a symbiotic relationship between the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry in Qinghai province.Secondly,this paper establishes many symbiotic evolution models that may exist in the symbiotic relationship between logistics industry and manufacturing industry under the independent environment of industry based on the Logistic model,calculates the equilibrium points of each model and discusses the stability of its solution.Doing simulation experiment on each pattern using quantum genetic algorithm.The result of comparative analysis shows that the relationship between logistics industry and manufacturing industry is the cooperative symbiotic evolution under the independent environment of industry.The quantum genetic algorithm is used again to estimate the paramaters of the model on the basis of this.It is concluded that there is a cooperative symbiotic evolution relationship between logistics industry and manufacturing industry in Qinghai Province,and it is in the growing stage of symbiotic evolution.So the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry have evolved from a relatively independent environment to a strategic alliance relationship.Thirdly,this paper establishes many models of the symbiotic evolution relationship between the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry under the stragetic alliance environment based on the Logistic extension model.At the same time,this paper discisses the equilibrium point and stability solution of logistics industry and manufacturing industry in the existence of each model.Due to the different share resources of strategic cooperation offered by the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry in the industrial strategic alliance environment.This paper discusses three possible situation: when the resources provided by the logistics indistry are equal to the resources provided by the manufacturing industry;when the resources provided by the logistics indistry are less than the resources provided by the manufacturing industry;when the resources provided by the logistics indistry are more than the resources provided by the manufacturing industry.Doing simulation analysis of each shared resource state using quantum genetic algorithm.Combing the parameters of the equilibrium point and the stable solution of the symbiotic evolution model,obtaining the symbiotic mode of the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry under the background of each resourse.Finally,this paper analyzes the reasons of the low degree of symbiotic evolution between logistics industry and manufacturing industry in Qinghai Province,and proposes some countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve the degree of symbiotic evolution of logistics industry and manufacturing industry.更多还原