【作者】 邢洁；

【导师】 刘国亮；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 中国货物出口保持稳步增长是过去近二十年来国际贸易中最重要的现象之一。目前,中国已经成为世界第一大货物贸易国、第一大出口国。出口企业作为货物出口的微观经济主体,已经逐步成为各国参与国际市场竞争的主体。因此,中国能否实现货物出口的可持续增长与中国出口企业的成败密不可分。在国际市场上,中国出口企业该如何应对来自劳动力成本更低的发展中国家企业的竞争?该如何与具有众多名牌和高质量产品的发达国家企业进行抗衡?是一味地提高生产率降低生产成本,还是不断提高产品质量、功能以及知名度等产品特性(尽管由于选材、研发和广告等投入使生产成本增加)?只有确定了出口企业比较优势的关键来源,才能就这些问题给出较为准确的答案。本文尝试就这一系列问题进行探讨和分析。有关异质性企业贸易理论的研究主要有两个基本框架。一个是以Melitz(2003)为基础,使用CES(固定替代弹性)效用函数。另一个是以Melitz和Ottaviano(2008)为基础,使用拟线性二次效用函数。无论选择这两个主流模型中的哪一个进行理论构建,大多通过引入更多的企业异质性或者放宽企业生产的假设条件等途径进行拓展分析。已有研究对Melitz(2003)的拓展分析较为广泛,而Melitz和Ottaviano(2008)还有很大的挖掘空间。关于企业异质性的引入,起初大都是从成本角度进行考虑,主要是以生产率倒数形式出现反映生产成本的异质性或者是反映企业进入新出口市场固定成本的异质性。近年来,产品特性的异质性正在逐渐得到国内外学者的关注。在这样的现实和理论背景下,本文以拟线性二次效用函数为基础构建理论框架,同时引入产品异质性和生产率异质性,分析这两者对企业出口绩效的影响,结合需求弹性和成本弹性与产品异质性和生产率异质性的交互作用,进一步分析产品异质性和生产率异质性在不同市场结构条件下的相对重要性,并利用中国12个主要出口制造业行业企业层面生产和出口的微观数据进行验证。本文的基本结构和主要内容如下:第一章是导论,介绍本文的背景、思路、主要内容、方法以及创新点;第二章是文献综述,从三个角度展开:一是异质性企业贸易理论主流模型及其拓展,二是产品异质性和全要素生产率的估计方法,三是产品异质性和全要素生产率对企业出口绩效的影响;第三章是理论模型,建立了一个异质性企业出口模型,通过分析零出口利润条件,得到关键变量之间的相互关系;第四章是数据和统计性分析,包括数据来源及其处理过程、样本数据初步统计分析以及样本分组标准;第五章是关键变量的估计,包括表示产品异质性的需求指数、全要素生产率、需求弹性、成本弹性,考察关键变量之间的相互关系;第六章从深度边际角度考察产品异质性和全要素生产率对企业出口绩效的影响,采用企业年度出口额和企业在出口目的地的年度市场份额两个指标衡量企业出口的深度边际,在对全体样本进行检验之后,又按照贸易方式、企业登记注册类型以及出口目的地等标准将全样本划分为不同组别进行分组估计,最后对全样本估计结果进行稳健性检验;第七章从广度边际角度考察产品异质性和全要素生产率对企业出口绩效的影响,采用企业出口产品种数和出口目的地个数两个指标衡量企业出口的广度边际,进行了全样本检验和分组检验以及稳健性检验。第八章为研究结论和政策建议。通过规范分析、实证分析、对比分析以及微观层面与宏观层面相结合等多种分析方法的综合运用,本文主要结论如下:第一,产品异质性和全要素生产率在企业出口深度边际和广度扩张中都发挥了重要作用。产品质量、功能和知名度等特性越强、全要素生产率越高,企业出口额和在出口目的地所占市场份额越大,企业出口产品种数和出口目的地个数越多。不但没有发现“生产率悖论”的存在,而且产品异质性的影响也不容忽视。如果忽略了产品异质性的重要作用,就意味着某种程度上高估了低成本在企业出口扩张中的作用。所以,尽管通过提高生产率来降低生产成本可以在一定程度上扩大企业出口,但更大程度的企业出口二元边际的扩张要靠降低生产成本和提升产品特性并驾齐驱。第二,按照贸易方式、企业登记注册类型以及出口目的地等标准将全样本划分为不同组别进行分组估计和对比分析得到三个主要结论。首先,在区分了一般贸易企业和加工贸易企业之后,与加工贸易企业相比,产品异质性在一般贸易企业出口扩张中的作用更大。其次,在区分了内资企业和外资企业之后,与外资企业相比,内资企业通过加强产品特性来扩大出口的效果更为明显。最后,在区分了出口目的地之后,对产品出口到美国、加拿大、日本以及韩国的中国企业来说,加强产品特性和提高生产率都相当重要;对于出口目的地为欧盟的中国企业来说,加强产品特性更有利于出口二元边际的扩张;对于出口目的地为除日韩以外亚洲其他国家和地区的中国企业来说,通过提高生产率降低成本扩大出口的效果更为明显。第三,产品异质性和全要素生产率在企业出口二元边际扩张中的相对重要性与需求弹性和成本弹性有关。目标市场的需求弹性越小,即市场上产品差别程度越大,相对于提高生产率降低成本,加强产品特性更有利于企业出口二元边际的扩张。加强产品特性的成本弹性越小,也就是加强产品特性所引起的边际成本增加越少,与提高生产率相比,提升产品特性能够更加有效地扩大企业出口的二元边际。基于已有研究,本文从以下几个方面展开探索:第一,本文将产品异质性和生产率异质性同时引入以拟线性二次效用函数为基础的异质性企业分析框架进行理论分析。与基于CES效用函数的异质性企业分析框架假设条件相比,拟线性二次效用函数的假设更为宽松、更符合客观实际,所得结论的普遍性更强。CES效用函数下的均衡价格由简单的加成得到,而拟线性二次效用函数下的市场均衡是由价格相互作用的众多企业的纳什均衡给出。由于数理推导的复杂性等方面原因,将多个维度的企业异质性同时引入以拟线性二次效用函数为基础的异质性企业分析框架的研究较少,本文从这个角度对异质性企业贸易理论进行扩展。第二,本文从企业微观层面出发,以中国主要出口行业的企业数据为样本,考察产品异质性对企业出口二元边际扩张的影响,把企业出口绩效分解为深度边际和广度边际,深度边际以企业年度出口额和企业年度出口市场份额两个指标来衡量,广度边际以企业出口产品种数和企业出口目的地个数两个指标来衡量。并且,还考察了产品异质性和全要素生产率在中国企业出口二元边际扩张中的相对重要性及影响因素。另外,按照贸易方式、企业登记注册类型以及出口目的地等标准将全样本划分为不同组别进行分组估计和对比分析。第三,本文的实证检验采用了中国工业企业数据库和中国海关交易统计数据库两套微观数据以及联合国商品贸易统计数据库的部分宏观数据,将中国出口企业的生产、贸易和出口目的地市场规模等相关信息进行匹配,并根据行业出口份额、传统出口行业以及新兴出口行业等标准选择了 12个出口行业的企业数据组成了本文的样本数据,丰富相关研究的实证分析对象以及结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The steady growth of China’s export of goods has been one of the most important phenomena in international trade over the past two decades.China has become the world’s largest goods trader and the world’s largest exporter.As the microeconomic main body of goods export,export firms have gradually become the main body of countries participating in international market competition.Therefore,whether China can achieve sustainable growth of goods export is closely related to the success of Chinese export firms.How should Chinese firms cope with competition from developing countries’ counterparts with lower labour costs in international markets?How to compete with developed countries’ counterparts with a large number of famous brands and high-quality products?Is it a matter of increasing productivity to reduce costs,or is it a matter of enhancing product characteristics,including product quality,features and reputation(despite of cost increase due to material selection,R&D and advertising)?Only by identifying the key sources of export firms’ comparative advantages can we give accurate answers to these questions.This paper will try to discuss and analyze these problems.There are two basic frames in the literature of heterogeneous-firm trade theory.One is based on Melitz(2003),using CES(Constant Elasticity of Substitution)utility functions.The other is based on Melitz and Ottaviano(2008),using a quasi-linear quadratic utility function.No matter which of the two mainstream models is chosen to construct the theory,recent papers are carried out by introducing more heterogeneities or relaxing the assumptions of production.Previous studies have extensively analyzed the application of Melitz(2003),but Melitz and Ottaviano(2008)still have plenty of room for exploration.To introduce more heterogeneities,most papers are from the perspective of the cost considerations.Several papers in the recent literature have shown that product heterogeneity also plays an important role in export.Under such a realistic and theoretical background,this paper attempts to build a theoretical framework based on quasi-linear quadratic utility function,introducing product and productivity heterogeneities,analyzing the roles of product heterogeneity and productivity in firms’ export,considering the effects of demand elasticity and cost elasticity,comparing the relative importance of product heterogeneity and productivity heterogeneity in different situations.To examine the theoretical results,this paper uses firms’ production and trade data of 12 Chinese manufacturing industries.The following is the basic structure and main contents of this paper:Chapter 1 is the introduction,which introduces the background,ideas,main contents,methods and innovative points of this paper;Chapter 2 is literature review,which is carried out from three perspectives:first,the mainstream models of heterogeneous-firm trade theory and their extensions;second,the estimation method of product heterogeneity and total factor productivity;third,the influence of product heterogeneity and productivity on firms’ export performance;Chapter 3 is the theoretical model,analyzing the condition of zero-profit of heterogeneous export firms,inspecting the relationships among key variables;Chapter 4 is data and statistical descriptions,including data source,processing process,elementary statistical analysis and sample grouping criteria;Chapter 5 is the estimation of key variables,including demand index which represents product heterogeneity,total factor productivity,demand elasticity and cost elasticity;Chapter 6 tests the impacts of product heterogeneity and productivity on the intensive margin of firm export performance,using annual export value and export market share to measure this margin,processing group estimation according to the categories of trade types,firm registration type and export destinations,testing the robustness of the results;Chapter 7 investigates the influence of product heterogeneity and productivity on the extensive margin of firm export performance,using the number of export products and the number of export destinations to measure this margin,processing group estimation and robustness tests;Chapter 8 is conclusions and suggestions.Through the comprehensive application of various analytical methods including normative analysis,empirical analysis,comparative analysis and the combination of micro level and macro level,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,both product heterogeneity and productivity play important roles in intensive and extensive margins of firm export.The more attractive the product is,the higher the productivity is,the larger the export volume and export market share,and the more kinds of products and destinations the firm exports.Not only is there no "productivity paradox",but also the impact of product heterogeneity cannot be ignored.If we ignore the important role of product heterogeneity,it means we overestimate the role of low cost in the firm export expansion.Therefore,although reducing production costs by increasing productivity can expand firms’ export to a certain extent,the expansion of firms’ export to a greater extent depends on both reducing production costs and enhancing product characteristics.Second,this paper obtain following results by group estimation according to trade types,firm registration types and export destinations.Firstly,to differentiate the general trade and processing trade firms,compared with the processing trade counterparts,product heterogeneity plays a more important role in general trade firms.Secondly,after distinguishing between domestic and overseas-funded firms,compared with..overseas-funded firms,domestic firms have a more obvious effect of expanding export by enhancing product characteristics.The last,after differentiating export destinations,there are three main results:for Chinese firms those export to America,Canada,Japan and South Korea,it is especially important to make their products more attractive and more productive;for Chinese firms those export to EU,enhancing product characteristics is the more effective way to expand export;for Chinese firms those export to the rest regions of Asia,productivity plays a relative important role.Third,the relative importance of product heterogeneity and productivity in the dual margins expansion of firms’ export is related to the elasticity of demand and cost.The smaller demand elasticity of the target market is,which means the greater product difference in the market is,compared with the increase in productivity to reduce costs,enhancing product characteristics is more conducive to the expansion of firm export.The lower cost elasticity of product characteristics is,which means the less marginal cost increase caused by improving product characteristics,compared with productivity improvement,enhancing product characteristics can more effectively expand the intensive and extensive margins of firms’export.Relative to the existing literature,this paper attempts to explore in the following areas:First,this paper attempts to introduce the product heterogeneity and productivity heterogeneity into the framework based on quasi-linear quadratic utility function.Compared with the hypothesis of the framework based on CES utility function,the hypothesis of quasi-linear quadratic utility function is more consistent with reality,and the conclusions are more genneral.Furthermore,the equilibrium price under CES utility framework is the mark-up while the market equilibrium under quasi-linear framework is the price of the Nash equilibrium of interaction of firms.Therefore,there are only a very few papers incorporating multiple firm heterogeneities into heterogeneous-firm framework based on quasi-linear quadratic utility function,this paper attempts to enrich trade theory from this perspective.Second,this paper attempts to inspect the roles of product heterogeneity and productivity in the intensive and extensive margins of firms’ export based on firm data of China’s main export industries.The intensive margin is measured by firm annual export value and export market share,while the extensive margin is measured by the number of firm export kinds of products and export destinations.Furthermore,the relative importance of product heterogeneity and productivity in the dual margins expansion of firms’export is also investigated.In addition,the whole sample is divided into different groups for grouping estimation and comparative analysis according to trade types,firm registration types and export destinations.Third,this paper uses a Chinese industrial firm-level data and customs product-level data,and part of the macro data of the United Nations commodity trade statistics data,matching firm production and export data with destinations’ information.According to information related to the ranking of export quotas,the division of traditional and emerging export industries,this paper choses firm data from 12 China’s export industries as the sample,attempting to enrich the empirical analysis of heterogeneous-firm trade theory.更多还原