【作者】 王星；

【导师】 杨肃昌；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 应用经济学·区域经济学， 2018， 博士

【摘要】 全球变暖是国际社会共同关注的焦点问题之一,联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会评估报告显示,二氧化碳浓度增加是全球气候变暖的主要原因。中国作为世界第一大碳排放国,面临巨大的碳减排压力。中国城市化的快速推进为经济和社会发展提供了强大动力。城市作为人口和产业活动的集聚地,一方面是消耗资源的集中地;另一方面是社会转型、制度创新和技术革新的发生地,从而带来高效的节能减排技术和碳排放制度。那么城市化究竟是会驱动碳排放还是会抑制碳排放?从目前研究来看,学界对二者之间的关系尚未得出一致的结论。鉴于此,本文就城市化影响碳排放的机理、城市化影响碳排放的区域分异以及城市化影响碳排放的门槛效应等关键问题进行研究,以期得出较为全面和客观的结论,为制定和实施城市化战略与节能减排政策提供理论支持。本文在梳理和归纳国内外的研究文献的基础上,首先从传导机制、空间效应和城市化不同阶段对碳排放影响三方面探讨了城市化对碳排放影响的作用机理;其次在分析城市化与碳排放现状的基础上,利用空间面板模型实证分析了城市化对碳排放的影响,进一步利用分步回归法验证了城市化对碳排放的传导渠道;紧接着在分析城市化与碳排放区域分异现状的基础上,实证分析了城市化在东部、中部和西部对碳排放影响的差异,进一步验证了三个区域城市化对碳排放影响的传导渠道;最后,为了找寻城市化在东部、中部和西部对碳排放影响产生差异的原因,实证分析了城市化对碳排放的门槛效应。论文的主要研究结论如下:第一,城市化对碳排放的影响是中间变量间接传导的结果,在此过程中,空间效应和城市化的阶段都会影响城市化对碳排放作用的方向和强度。具体来看,城市化主要通过影响人力资本、技术创新、产业结构和居民消费等中间变量进而影响碳排放。考虑空间效应可知,本地区的碳排放不但受到本地区相关因素的影响,而且还受到相邻地区碳排放及相关因素的影响。城市化不同发展阶段,城市化水平的提高对人力资本、技术创新、产业结构与居民消费的影响会有所差异,因而导致了城市化不同阶段城市化水平对碳排放的影响会有所不同。第二,城市化与碳排放的基尼系数测算结果表明,城市化水平及碳排放存在明显的地区分异。就城市化水平来看,城市化在省域层面具有显著的地区分异,但地区差异在逐渐缩小。从三大区域内差异及演变趋势看,东部地区、中部地区内部城市化水平差异呈下降趋势,西部地区内部城市化水平差异变化并不明显。从碳排放来看,中国省域层面碳排放的基尼系数说明,碳排放的地区差异变化不大。就三大区域内部而言,东部和西部地区内部的差距不断在扩大,但中部地区各省之间的碳排放差距在逐渐缩小。第三,在全国层面上,城市化水平的提高驱动了碳排放,碳排放存在显著的空间正相关性。从传导渠道来看,城市化水平的提高会带来人力资本、技术创新、产业结构和居民消费的增加,人力资本、技术创新、产业结构与居民消费驱动了碳排放。第四,在区域层面上,城市化对碳排放影响存在显著分异,东部地区城市化显著的抑制碳排放,而中西部地区城市化则增加了碳排放。从传导渠道来看,城市化水平的提高在东部、中部和西部地区均会带来人力资本、技术创新、产业结构和居民消费的增加,但城市化对各个中间变量的促进作用在东部、中部和西部的强度有所不同。从中间变量对碳排放的影响看,东部地区产业结构和居民消费对碳排放的驱动强度不大,而人力资本与技术创新对碳排放的抑制作用很明显,因此总体上城市化抑制碳排放;中部地区人力资本与技术创新对碳排放的抑制作用小于产业结构与居民消费对碳排放的驱动作用,因此最终城市化还是会增加碳排放;西部地区除了技术创新能抑制碳排放外,其他中间变量均会增加碳排放,因此城市水平的提高会增加碳排放。第五,城市化对碳排放的影响存在显著的门槛效应,当城市化水平小于一定的门槛值时,城市化对碳排放具有显著的驱动作用,而当城市化水平超过一定的门槛值时,城市化则会抑制碳排放。基于以上研究结论,本文认为城市化对碳排放的影响并非一直表现为驱动作用或抑制作用,而是存在明显的门槛特征。城市化水平不同,对人力资本、技术创新、产业结构与居民消费的影响不同,中间变量进而导致对碳排放的影响也会不同。因此,本文提出要从促进城市化均衡发展,优化人力资本结构、推进节能技术创新、倡导低碳消费方式等方面入手,积极创造有利用城市化降低碳排放的环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming is one of the major concerns of the international community.According to the assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change(IPCC),the increase in carbon dioxide concentration is the main cause of global warming.China,as the world’s largest carbon emitter,faces great pressure to reduce carbon emissions.China’s rapid urbanization has provided a strong impetus for economic and social development.As the agglomeration place of population and industrial activities,city is the concentration place of consumption resources.On the other hand,it is the place where social transformation,institutional innovation and technological innovation take place,thus bringing efficient energy-saving and emission reduction technologies and carbon emission system.So will urbanisation drive carbon emissions or will it curb them? From the current research,the academic community has not reached a consistent conclusion on the relationship between the two.In view of this,this paper studies the key issues such as the mechanism of urbanization affecting carbon emissions,the regional differentiation of urbanization affecting carbon emissions,and the threshold effect of urbanization affecting carbon emissions,so as to draw relatively comprehensive and objective conclusions,and provide theoretical support for the formulation and implementation of urbanization strategies and energy-saving and emission reduction policies.On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the domestic and foreign research literature,this paper first discusses the mechanism of the impact of urbanization on carbon emission from three aspects: transmission mechanism,spatial effect and the impact of different stages of urbanization.Secondly,on the basis of analyzing the current situation of urbanization and carbon emissions,the spatial panel model is used to empirically analyze the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions,and the transmission channel of urbanization to carbon emissions is further verified by stepwise regression method.Then,on the basis of analyzing the status quo of urbanization and carbon emission regional differentiation,empirical analysis was made on the difference of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in the east,central and western regions,and further verified the transmission channels of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in the three regions.Finally,the threshold effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is analyzed empirically in order to find out the reasons why urbanization affects carbon emissions differently in eastern,central and western regions.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is the result of indirect transmission of intermediate variables.In this process,both the spatial effect and the stage of urbanization will affect the direction and intensity of the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions.Specifically,urbanization affects carbon emissions mainly through intermediate variables such as human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption.Considering the spatial effect,the carbon emission in this region is not only affected by the relevant factors in this region,but also affected by the carbon emission and related factors in neighboring regions.At different stages of urbanization,the impact of the improvement of urbanization level on human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption will be different,thus leading to different impacts of urbanization level on carbon emissions at different stages of urbanization.Second,The result of gini coefficient of urbanization and carbon emission shows that the level of urbanization and carbon emission are distinct in different regions.In terms of urbanization level,urbanization has significant regional differences at the provincial level.But regional differences are narrowing.From the perspective of the differences and evolution trends within the three regions,the differences of urbanization levels within the eastern region and the central region show a downward trend,while the differences of urbanization levels within the western region are not obvious.From the perspective of carbon emissions,the gini coefficient of China’s provincial level of carbon emissions shows that the regional differences in carbon emissions have not changed much.Within the three regions,the gap between eastern and western regions is widening,but the gap between the provinces in the central region is narrowing.Thirdly,at the national level,the improvement of urbanization level drives carbon emissions,which have a significant positive spatial correlation.From the perspective of transmission channels,the improvement of urbanization will lead to the increase of human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption.Human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption drive carbon emissions.Fourth,at the regional level,the impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions are significantly different.Urbanization in eastern regions significantly inhibits carbon emissions,while urbanization in central and western regions increases carbon emissions.From the perspective of transmission channel,the improvement of urbanization level in eastern,central and western regions will lead to the increase of human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption,but the promotion effect of urbanization on each intermediate variable is different in eastern,central and western regions.From the impact of intermediate variables on carbon emissions,the industrial structure and household consumption in the eastern region have little driving intensity for carbon emissions,while human capital and technological innovation have obvious inhibiting effect on carbon emissions.Therefore,urbanization on the whole inhibits carbon emissions.The impact of human capital and technological innovation on carbon emissions in the central region is less than that of industrial structure and household consumption,so eventually urbanization will increase carbon emissions.In the western region,except technological innovation can curb carbon emissions,all other intermediate variables will increase carbon emissions,so the improvement of urban level will increase carbon emissions.Fifth,the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has a significant threshold effect.When the level of urbanization is less than a certain threshold value,urbanization has a significant driving effect on carbon emissions,and when the level of urbanization exceeds a certain threshold value,urbanization will curb carbon emissions.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper believes that the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions is not always shown as a driving or inhibiting effect,but has a clear threshold feature.Different urbanization levels have different impacts on human capital,technological innovation,industrial structure and household consumption,and the effects of intermediate variables on carbon emissions will also be different.Therefore,this paper proposes to actively create an environment that uses urbanization to reduce carbon emissions by promoting balanced development of urbanization,optimizing human capital structure,promoting innovation of energysaving technologies,and advocating low-carbon consumption mode.更多还原