【作者】 王蕾；

【导师】 龙如银；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2019， 博士

【摘要】 随着城市经济社会的发展,城市能源消耗量迅速增加,城市已然成为能源消耗的重要主体。能源消耗量的迅猛增长不仅激化了能源供需矛盾,能源消耗过程中所产生的污染排放也严重破坏了环境系统,对城市经济的持续发展和城市福利水平造成了巨大威胁。党的十九大报告中的各项发展目标已表明,统筹能源利用、经济发展、环境保护和社会福利已成为城市持续发展的重要手段,提升城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效势在必行。因而,科学判定城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效水平,提出相应的政策与建议成为亟待研究的重要课题,这对于探究城市能源高效转型路径、协调城市经济—社会—环境—福利发展意义重大。论文的研究思路如下:首先,主要回答了“为什么研究城市能源‘经济—环境—福利’绩效及其提升政策”。通过阐释研究背景,提出了研究目的和意义。其次,主要回答了“什么是城市能源‘经济—环境—福利’绩效”。通过对城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效相关理论、绩效概念、绩效结构模型以及能源绩效概念演化内容的剖析,构建了城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的概念结构模型。再次,主要回答了“怎么进行城市能源‘经济—环境—福利’绩效的评价”。在概念结构模型的基础上,基于文献分析方法,结合现有研究中的评价指标和影响因素筛选出城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的评价指标和影响因素,并进而构建了城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的评价指标与影响因素体系。为了满足城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价的多重需求,构建了城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价模型。出于评价工具使用可视化、便捷性的考虑,设计并开发了城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价系统。第四,主要回答了“中国省会城市的能源‘经济—环境—福利’绩效水平如何”。运用本研究构建的能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价模型和评价系统对省会城市的能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效进行了测算,从总体概况、时间维度、城市个体维度和绩效差异维度分别进行了细致地分析和阐述,揭示了省会城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效在不同维度上的规律和特点。进一步地,分析了不同影响因素对省会城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的作用方向和大小。第五,主要回答了“怎么提升省会城市的能源‘经济—环境—福利’绩效”。基于对现行政策内容的回顾,结合现行政策的类别及城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的评价指标和影响因素,将城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效提升作为最终目标,确定出城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效提升的各项子目标及相应的政策情景。基于不同政策情景下各省会城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的提升效果确定出各个城市和国家应当选择的主导政策及建议。基于上述研究思路和内容,本研究的主要结论和创新点总结如下:(1)城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的概念和结构层面:基于相关概念和相关理论基础的剖析,本研究将城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效界定为在一定社会规制和因素影响下,城市基于一定能源投入和其他投入经过城市发展活动所能形成的最优产出水平,进而构建了涵盖城市能源经济绩效、城市能源环境绩效和城市能源福利绩效的三维结构模型,拓展了城市能源绩效理论研究的概念框架和视角。(2)城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价指标与影响因素体系层面:基于规范的文献分析过程,最终构建了城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的评价指标与影响因素体系。评价指标包括投入指标和产出指标,资本投入、劳动力投入和能源投入为投入指标,经济产出、污染排放和福利水平为产出指标。影响因素则包括能耗结构、产业结构、能源价格、城市规模、对外开放程度、科技投入、HDD指数、城镇化水平及家庭汽车拥有量。该体系将评价指标和影响因素纳入同一框架范围内,从内生化和外生化的双重视角揭示了评价指标和影响因素各自所发挥的作用,反映了城市能源利用的动态过程。(3)城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的评价模型层面:为了满足城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的多重评价需求,本研究在综合分析随机前沿分析模型、随机射线前沿分析模型以及非期望产出处理方式的基础上,构建了城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价模型。该评价模型将绩效评价和因素分析纳入同一阶段,有效解决了同一模型中同时处理多期望产出和非期望产出的要求,更加符合城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价的现实情景。(4)城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价系统层面:基于前述的研究基础和系统结构、功能设计,以省会城市为样本,开发了城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效评价系统。评价系统由数据库服务器、分布式组件服务器和人机交互界面三个部分组成,涵盖登录、添加数据、编辑数据、绩效计算、绩效分析、绩效比较、绩效查询和图表导出等功能。该评价系统以模块化设计为手段,进一步提高了系统的扩展性和适应性;充分实现了数据管理、业务处理和信息展示,有效降低了设计模式的复杂程度;操作简便、结果直观,有效满足了各类使用者的评价需求;为未来能源绩效评价工具的设计和开发、实现能源绩效管理工作的信息化和自动化提供了重要借鉴。(5)中国省会城市的能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效水平和因素作用层面:省会城市的能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效水平提升空间较大,并呈现出一定的两阶段分化现象。省会城市的能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效可分为三类,每一类别在绩效水平和发展趋势上均呈现出不同的特点和规律。而从每个城市的绩效水平和变化程度来看,各个城市也有所不同。能耗结构、城市规模对城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效具有显著的负向影响,产业结构、能源价格和科学技术投入具有显著的正向影响。产业结构和能源价格对城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的影响最大,能耗结构和科学技术投入次之,城市规模的影响相对较小。(6)省会城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效提升政策的选择层面:从各个省会城市的政策选择结果来看,太原市、沈阳市、上海市、杭州市和武汉市应将降低能耗政策作为提升城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的主导政策。石家庄市应将减排政策作为主导政策。成都市应重点实施提高经济产出政策。而天津市、呼和浩特市、哈尔滨市、南京市、合肥市、福州市、南昌市、济南市、郑州市、广州市、重庆市、贵阳市、昆明市、西安市、兰州市、西宁市和乌鲁木齐市应将提升福利水平政策作为首要政策选择。长春市应重点关注于优化能耗结构政策。而海口市和银川市则重点依托于调整产业结构政策。提高能效技术水平政策是北京市和南宁市提升城市能源“经济—环境—福利”绩效的主导政策。多数城市以提升福利水平政策为绩效提升的最优选择。从国家层面出发,应按照各项政策的效用有主次、有梯度地实施上述政策,统筹、协调和应用不同政策下的具体建议。提升政策选择研究融入了政策分类和政策效果预测的量化研究,提高了提升目标设计和预测结果判定的准确性,为该类研究提供了崭新的思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of urban economy and society,urban energy consumption has increased rapidly.Cities have become important subjects of energy consumption.The rapid growth of energy consumption has not only intensified the contradiction between energy supply and demand.The pollution emissions generated during the energy consumption process have seriously damaged urban environmental system,and have posed a huge threat to the sustainable development of urban economy and the level of urban wellbeing.The development goals in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China have shown that coordinating energy utilization,economic development,environmental protection and social wellbeing have become important means for the sustainable development of cities,and the improvement of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance is imperative.Therefore,scientifically determining the level of urban energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance and proposing corresponding policies and recommendations have become important issues to be studied urgently,and they are of great significance to explore the urban energy efficient transformation path and coordinate urban economy-society-environment-wellbeing development.The research ideas of this study are listed as follows.First,by expounding the research background,the purpose and significance of studying urban energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance and its promotion policy are put forward.Second,through the analysis of the related theories,performance concept,performance structure,energy performance concept,the conceptual structure model of urban energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance is constructed.Third,based on the conceptual structure model,urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation indicators and influencing factors are selected by using literature analysis method,and then the framework of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation indicators and influencing factors is proposed.In order to meet the multiple needs of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation,the urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation model is constructed.In view of the visualization and convenience of the evaluation tool,the evaluation system of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance is designed and developed.Fourth,the energy economy-environmentwellbeing performance of China’s provincial capitals is evaluated by using the evaluation model and evaluation system constructed in this study,and they are analyzed and elaborated in detail from the overall situation,time dimension,city dimension and performance difference dimension.The rules and characteristics of energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance for provincial capitals in different dimensions are revealed.Furthermore,the impacts of different factors on the energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance in provincial capitals are analyzed.Fifth,based on the policy categories,the evaluation indicators,and the influencing factors of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance,the urban energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance improvement is set as the ultimate goal,and the sub-goals of improving urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance and the corresponding policy scenarios are proposed.Based on the improvement effect of energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance in provincial capitals under different policy scenarios,the dominant policies and recommendations that should be selected by each city and country are determined.According to the above research ideas and contents,the conclusions and innovations of this study are listed as follows:(1)Concept and structure of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance: according to the related concepts and theoretical foundations,urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance is defined as the optimal output level formed by urban energy input and other inputs through urban development activities under the influences of certain social regulations and factors.Furthermore,the three-dimensional structure model covering urban energy economy performance,urban energy environment performance and urban energy wellbeing performance is constructed,which expands the conceptual framework and perspective of urban energy performance theory research.(2)Evaluation indicator and influencing factor framework of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance: the framework is finally constructed through the normative literature analysis.The evaluation indicators are divided into input indicators and output indicators.The input indicators include capital input,labor input and energy input.The output indicators include economic output,pollution emission and wellbeing level.The influencing factors include energy consumption structure,industrial structure,energy price,urban scale,foreign trade openness,science and technology input,HDD index,urbanization level and household car ownership.The evaluation indicators and influencing factors are incorporated into the same framework.From the endogenous perspective and the exogenous perspective,the framework reveals the respective roles of evaluation indicators and influencing factors,and reflects the dynamic process of urban energy utilization.(3)Urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation model: in order to meet the multiple evaluation requirements of urban energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance,the urban energy economy-environmentwellbeing performance evaluation model are constructed based on the comprehensive analysis of stochastic frontier analysis model,stochastic ray frontier analysis model and undesirable output processing method.The model incorporates performance evaluation and factor analysis into the same stage,effectively solves multi-desirable outputs and undesirable output in the same method model,and meets the actual situation of urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation.(4)Urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation system: based on the above research foundation and the design of system structure and functions,the urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance evaluation system is developed with China’s provincial capitals as samples.The evaluation system consists of three parts: database server,distributed component server and humancomputer interaction interface.It covers the functions of login,data addition,data editing,performance calculation,performance analysis,performance comparison,performance query and chart export.The evaluation system uses modular design as a means,which further improve the scalability and adaptability of the system.The evaluation system fully realizes data management,business processing and information display,effectively reduces the complexity of the design mode.It is easy to operate and get results so as to effectively meet the evaluation needs of various users.Therefore,it provides an important reference for the design and development of energy performance evaluation tools,and realizes the informatization and automation of energy performance management in the future.(5)Energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance level of China’s provincial capitals and the influences of factors on it: the energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance level of China’s provincial capitals has a large space to improve and shows a certain two-stage differentiation.The energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance of China’s provincial capitals can be divided into three categories,each of which shows different characteristics and rules in terms of performance level and development trend.In addition,the performance level and change degree of each city are also different.Energy consumption structure and urban scale have significant negative effects on urban energy economy-environmentwellbeing performance,while industrial structure,energy price,science and technology input have significant positive effects.Industrial structure and energy price have the greatest impact on urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance,followed by energy consumption structure and science and technology input.The impact of urban scale on urban energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance is relatively small.(6)The choices of energy economy-environment-wellbeing performance improvement policy for China’s provincial capitals: from the choice of each provincial capital,Taiyuan,Shenyang,Shanghai,Hangzhou and Wuhan should take energy consumption reduction policy as the leading policy to improve urban energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance.Shijiazhuang should adopt emission reduction policy as the leading policy.Chengdu should focus on the implementation of improving economic output policy.Tianjin,Hohhot,Harbin,Nanjing,Hefei,Fuzhou,Nanchang,Jinan,Zhengzhou,Chongqing,Guiyang,Kunming,Xi’an,Lanzhou,Xining and Urumqi should take the policy of improving wellbeing level as their primary policy choice.Changchun should focus on optimizing energy consumption structure policy.Haikou and Yinchuan should set the policy of adjusting industrial structure as the leading policy.The improving energy performance technology level policy is the dominant policy for Beijing and Nanning to improve the urban energy economyenvironment-wellbeing performance.In most cities,the policy of improving wellbeing level is the best choice for performance improvement.As for country,the above policies should be implemented in accordance with the effectiveness of various policies,and the specific recommendations of different policies should be coordinated and applied.The choice study of improvement policy incorporates the quantitative study on policy classification and policy effect prediction,which improves the accuracy of target design and prediction results,and provides new ideas and methods for such study.更多还原