【作者】 杨静；

【导师】 张炳；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 环境科学与工程， 2019， 博士

【摘要】 当前,我国大气环境污染、特别是细颗粒物(PM2?)的污染问题受到广泛关注。已有研究表明,火电、钢铁和水泥等重点工业行业是大气污染的重要来源。针对这些重点行业的大气污染防治问题,我国提出了调整能源结构,提高能源效率,改造既有技术,提高污染物排放标准等方案。然而,这些行业大气污染防治政策的制定和执行,是否具有成本有效性目前并不明显。此外,这些大气污染防治带来的空气质量改善及其健康收益也缺乏估计。本研究以我国30个省的火电脱硫(S-P),钢铁脱硫(S-SI),火电脱硝(N-P)和水泥脱硝(N-C)4个重点行业污染物减排为研究对象,开展重点行业大气污染防治政策的成本效益分析。研究首先通过构建重点行业污染物的边际减排曲线,评估了 2030年大气污染防治目标下工业行业的最优减排路径和减排成本。其次通过计量经济学模型及人力资本法分析了PM2.5与医疗保健支出、过早死亡的响应关系,估计了大气污染防治的健康效益。在此基础之上基于各省的SO2,NOx等污染物减排情况,通过动态响应曲面模型(RSM)进行PM2.5空气质量模拟,估计了不同大气污染防治策略下的成本收益,并基于效益成本比推荐了重点行业大气污染防治的最优策略,为政府提供决策支撑。研究结果表明,针对2030年全国火电SO2,钢铁SO2,火电NOx和水泥NOx排放总量相比2015年下降50%的减排目标,总减排成本至少达到1168.93亿元,占2030年预测GDP的0.07%。从实现路径上看,不同区域不同行业的最优减排路径存在差异。对于火电行业,应优先削减内陆省份,最后是东部沿海省份的污染物。对于钢铁行业,应优先削减中部省份,最后削减北部沿海省份的污染物。对于水泥行业,应优先削减中部省份污染物,然后再考虑其他地区污染物的减排。此外,在该减排目标下,自上而下的省际目标分配带来的效率损失约为最优成本的3.30%-11.81%,效率损失并不十分严重。健康收益方面,PM2,每减少1%,家庭医疗保健支出每年将减少2.94%,年人均医疗保健支出将减少30.23元,PM2.PM2.5每减少1%,2030年当年全国医疗保健支出将减少425.76亿元。PM2.5每减少1μg/m3,年全因死亡率降低0.051%,单例过早死亡的经济价值达到62万元。PM2.5每减少1%,2030年当年全国减少的死亡人数经济价值达到19.30亿元。实现2030年火电SO2、钢铁SO2、火电NOx和水泥NOx排放总量相比2015年下降50%的减排目标,能够产生3079.05亿元的健康经济效益,占2030年预测GDP的0.3%。为实现2030年火电SO2、钢铁SO2、火电NOx和水泥NOx排放总量相比2015年下降50%的减排目标,“循序渐进执行当前国家发布的可持续能源政策和污染防治政策”是效益成本比最高的策略。具体而言,包括实施2016-2030年中长期的《能源生产和消费革命战略》,加强现有的减排工艺改造,加强新建企业先进减排工艺的应用,有步骤地按照各省规划执行重点行业“超低排放”等严格污染物排放标准等。与这一策略相比,宽松的减排政策可能难以达成2030年的减排要求,而过严的减排策略则可能带来过高的减排成本。基于上述结果,本研究建议,我国重点行业的大气污染物防控,必须设置区域分异的污染减排目标,分区分步推动现有工艺改造和新技术采用,执行适中的可持续能源政策和污染防治政策,提高大气污染控制的成本有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently,air pollution in China is serious,especially the regional air environment problem with fine particulate matter(PM2.5)as the specific pollutant is increasingly prominent.Key industries such as thermal power,steel,and cement are important sources of air pollution.To solve the air pollution prevention and control problems in these key industries,China has put forward some requirements,including accelerating the adjustment of energy structure,improving energy efficiency,accelerating the renovation project construction,and accelerating the improvement of pollutant emission standards.It is uncertain whether the formulation and implementation of air pollution prevention and control policies in these key industries have cost-effectiveness.In addition,the health benefits of air quality improvement from air pollution prevention and control in key industries are not also estimated.In this study,the emission reduction processes of pollutants in four key industries of thermal power desulfurization(S-P),steel desulfurization(S-IS),thermal power denitrification(N-P)and cement denitrification(N-C)in 30 provinces were studied,and the cost-benefit analysis of air pollution prevention and control in key industries was conducted.The study first explored the optimal path and cost of emission reduction for industrial industries under the 2030 air pollution prevention and control goal by constructing pollutant emission reduction curves for key industries.Secondly,the econometric model and the human capital method were used to explore the response relationship between PM2.5 and health care expenditure,premature death,to evaluate the health benefits of air pollution prevention and control.And then,based on the SO2,NOx emission of provinces and dynamic response surface model(RSM),this study simulated the PM2.5 in a future year and assessed the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for the control of air pollution.Finally,based on the benefit-cost ratio,the study explored the optimal strategy of the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution and provided data support and policy suggestions for the government.The results show that there are differences in the optimal cost of emission reduction in key industries.For the thermal power sector,it is recommended that inland provinces should reduce pollutants first,followed by central provinces and finally eastern provinces.For the steel industry,it is recommended that central provinces should reduce pollutants first and northern coastal provinces are last.For the cement industry,it is recommended to prioritize the reduction of pollutants in central provinces before considering the reduction of pollutants in other regions.Under the emission reduction target of 50%lower than emission of 2015,the total emission reduction cost of S-P,S-IS,N-P,and N-C in 2030 will reach 116.89 Billion Yuan,accounting for 0.07%of the 2030 GDP.In addition,under the 2030 emission reduction target,the efficiency loss caused by the top-down allocation methods of total amount ranges from 3.30%to 11.81%.The efficiency loss caused by the allocation methods of the total amount is not serious,and the application of the allocation methods of the total amount to the prevention and control of air pollution in key industries will not have a serious impact on the cost and benefit.A 1% decrease in yearly PM2.5 exposure corresponds to a 2.94%reduction in spending on household healthcare and 30.23 Yuan reduction in expenditure on personal healthcare.A 1%reduction in annual PM2.5,national health care expenditure will be reduced by 42.58 Billion Yuan in 2030.A 1 ug/m3 of PM2.5 reduction,the all-cause mortality rate will be reduced by 0.051%,and the economic value of life lost per capita caused by single premature death will reach 620 Thousand Yuan.A 1%reduction in PM2.5 will reduce 1.93 Billion Yuan in economic losses caused by premature deaths nationwide by 2030.Under the emission reduction target of reducing the total emissions of S-P,S-IS,N-P,and N-C by 50%compared with 2015,the reduction of pollutants will generate 307.91 Billion Yuan of health benefits,accounting for 0.3%of 2030 GDP.Under the emission reduction target of reducing the total emissions of S-P,S-IS,N-P,and N-C by 50%compared with 2015,compared with other reduction strategies,the strategy executing the current sustainable energy policies and the pollution prevention and control policies is considered to be the optimal strategy to reduce emissions.In this strategy,the strategy of energy production and consumption revolution(2016-2030)is implemented,existing reduction measures are reformed,the new enterprise is required to apply the advanced emission reduction process,"ultra-low emission" or other stricter pollutants emission standards are adopted.If the emission reduction strategy is too loose,it may be difficult to meet the emission reduction requirements,while if the emission reduction strategy is too strict,it may lead to too high cost of emission reduction,resulting in ineffective cost.Based on the above research results,policy suggestions of this study are finally put forward from the following two aspects.Firstly,the government should promote the setting of pollution emission reduction targets for regional differentiation.Secondly,they should promote the current implementation of sustainable energy policies and pollution prevention and control policies.The result of this study can provide decision support for the setting of emission reduction targets and the selection of emission reduction strategies for key industries in the future.更多还原