旅游城市饭店业供—需系统耦合发展研究

【作者】 吴冰；

【导师】 马耀峰；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 旅游管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 中国旅游饭店业经过35年发展,已成为我国旅游行业最为国际化与市场化的产业,由规模竞争进入了品牌竞争的阶段。但我国许多城市饭店市场供需的结构性矛盾突出,业界和城市相应主管部门往往难以厘清本区域的饭店供需平衡状况,实践中靠经验来判断饭店供给和需求发展问题的并不少见。一方面,一些城市饭店业存在入住率低、季节性波动明显、经营利润率低下等问题;另一方面,旅游者在一些城市面临住宿不易、设施和服务不能满足需要、产品信息不透明等困难。故从理论上解决城市旅游饭店供需平衡问题,在实践中解决饭店失衡发展与供应不足问题,就成为我国饭店业可持续健康发展的亟需。本文以旅游目的地城市为研究平台,把城市的历史与现实游客需求当作需求系统,把城市饭店产业供给当作供给系统,将两者放在同一平台进行研究,拓展传统的供需分离的研究模式。本研究理论上对于构建城市饭店供需平衡的理论,丰富旅游产业经济和旅游管理的研究内容有重要意义;实践上对于提升饭店服务质量,加强饭店转型升级,优化产业结构、提升运营管理水准等,都具有重要的理论与实践价值。本研究是国家自然科学基金《旅游流与目的地耦合:因素及模型与机制研究——六大城市入境旅游为例》(N0.41271158)的子课题之一。根据系统科学、旅游供需理论、区域经济系统协调发展理论、产业经济学和管理学等多学科理论,采用历年来政府权威统计调查资料和作者亲自参与的项目组实地调研数据,运用质性研究、数理分析、GIS分析和结构方程模型等研究方法,从供需视角出发,以旅游需求驱动与饭店供给响应的时空耦合协调关系作为研究对象,采用历时性和现实性分析结合的研究方法,选取西安市为实证案例,系统研究旅游城市饭店业供需耦合关系和时序演变,深层次探讨饭店业发展供需耦合的平衡协调问题。本文首先在全面梳理国内外研究进展的基础上,研判了我国饭店业供给—需求耦合状况;然后,根据供需理论构建了饭店业供给—需求系统耦合协调评价模型,建立供需耦合协调综合评价指标体系;再次,以西安市为实证,利用历时性分析方法,研究了西安市入境游客和国内游客两个细分市场的需求与饭店业供给的耦合度和耦合协调度;最后,从入境游客和国内游客角度,对饭店业供给—需求系统耦合协调状态进行评价,利用现实性分析方法,探讨了饭店业供给—需求系统耦合协调度,深层次探索饭店供给各要素与总体耦合状况之间的关联强度;同时,对西安市饭店产业协调发展也提出了意见和建议。研究的主要结论如下:(1)结构性失衡是旅游城市饭店业供需关系所面临的主要问题。从空间结构来看,全国饭店布局呈现东多西少的整体空间格局,省域分布差异显著,集中分布趋势明显;从产业供需等级结构来看,阶段性过剩、结构性失衡困扰着旅游城市饭店产业的发展,高星级饭店、大规模饭店基本垄断了高端市场,占据了市场利润的大头,部分中低档饭店经营困难,经济效益与等级构成分布不均衡从供需类别结构来看,饭店产业在经济类型和饭店品类上都存在供需结构失衡,少数外资饭店占领大部分利润空间,内资饭店面临着非常大的竞争压力。商务、度假、经济饭店等新兴饭店品类迅速发展,传统旅游饭店产品亟待升级。(2)构建了城市旅游需求—饭店供给耦合的综合性评价指标体系。构建了饭店业供给与旅游需求耦合协调评价模型,并建立全面反映两系统之间关系以及各自发展状况的综合性评价指标体系。从入境游客和国内游客两个群体反映旅游需求,指标分别为旅游人次、消费量、消费增长、消费占比和消费潜力等5个方面18项指标,反映旅游需求总量和需求强度。从饭店所在城市综合环境、饭店业经济实力、饭店业经营管理水平三个子系统来确定饭店供给系统,指标体系从城市经济环境、城市生态环境、城市交通环境、城市社会安全、饭店业规模、饭店业经济效益、服务水平和平均效益8个方面来反映饭店业供给综合实力,共包括23项具体指标。(3)入境游客对西安市饭店业供需系统耦合状况的总体评价高于国内游客的总体评价。量化研究了西安市饭店业供给与旅游需求之间的耦合协调度。研究显示,1997—2011年间饭店业综合发展水平基本平稳上升,旅游需求综合评价函数值在波动中上升,饭店业供求关系正在由“供给滞后”的市场状态转向“需求滞后”;入境旅游需求与饭店业供给的耦合程度高于国内旅游需求,近两年国内旅游需求与饭店供给的耦合协调度上升较快;入境旅游需求、国内旅游需求与饭店业的耦合程度都保持着上升态势,入境旅游需求与饭店供给各个子系统的耦合协调程度均高于国内旅游需求;饭店业各子系统中,最能满足游客需求的是其经营管理水平,其次是饭店业的经济实力,而西安市饭店业所依赖的城市综合环境系统评价最低,对饭店业供给—需求的耦合协调度有较大的影响。(4)饭店经营管理水平、经济实力和城市综合环境是影响饭店业供给—需求质量耦合协调的关键因素。探索现阶段西安市游客对饭店业供给—需求耦合评价各变量之间的关联度,验证了本文所构建的饭店业供给与旅游需求耦合协调模型及测度指标变量的可行性。通过SEM分析各项测度指标路径关系估算结果,分析游客对饭店供给—需求之间耦合协调状态的总体评价,分析总评价与各隐变量耦合评价之间的关联度,发现饭店业供给各子系统因素与供需耦合的密切程度,最高为饭店经营管理水平,其次是饭店经济实力,再次为城市综合环境。本文的主要创新点有:(1)研究切入角度创新。以目的地旅游者群体及行为作为客源地旅游需求系统的显性表现,以目的地星级饭店综合指标因子作为饭店供给系统要素,将旅游需求和饭店产业供给纳入到同一个平台,从历时性和现实性分析两方面,研究了供—需两个复杂系统之间的耦合互动协调关系,试图从改变我国饭店供给与需求相互分离各自单独研究的现状方面进行创新。(2)构建了城市旅游需求与饭店供给系统耦合的综合性指标体系。以综合要素建立多指标体系,研究饭店供给和需求两个复杂系统的耦合互动关系,改变了旅游饭店供给—需求研究中,以单一要素评判供需的研究方式,是对传统饭店供给与需求平衡研究的新拓展。(3)多方法综合研究。本研究运用了历时性分析与现实性分析、概念模型—SEM分析和系统耦合分析等多种研究方法,全面地探讨了饭店供需协调和耦合问题,为饭店业的供需平衡研究提供了新的途径。本研究的不足:(1)在构建饭店业供给—需求耦合协调评价指标体系的过程中,主要采用德尔菲法与专家及旅游业内人士进行探讨,这就使得指标遴选、耦合协调度类别的划分等还存在补充和修正的空间。(2)受研究时间和篇幅的限制,本研究只选择了西安为案例地,来研究旅游城市饭店业的供需关系,在研究的普适性和代表性上有所欠缺,在今后的研究中将会扩大研究范围,选取更多的不同类型的旅游城市,来全面研究旅游城市饭店业供给—需求的耦合协调。更多还原

【Abstract】 To study the balance between hotel supply and demand,the paper constructed the coupled coordination evaluation model and the coupling coordination evaluation index system.By using related data from 1997 to 2011,it calculated the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of inboundand domestic tourists’ demand and hotel supply and analyzed coordination and evolution ofsupply and demand system in Xi’anhotel industry.Through the field investigation,it analyzed coupling coordination degree of hotelsupply and demand system at present,studied the direct cause and effect correlation strength betweeneach element of hotel supply and overall coordination in-depth.It breaks up the traditional separationmode of supply and demand,enrich the content of tourism economy and tourism management.The paper got the following main conclusions:Firstly,structural imbalance is a major issue that hotel supply and demand faced in China.From industry space structure,the overall spatial pattern of hotel layout appears more in the east andless in the west,differences in provincial distribution is significantly,concentrated distribution trend is evident.From industry level structure,the excess phase,structural imbalance plagued the development of hotel industry.From industryclassification structure,the hotel industry is structural imbalance of supply and demand in the economic type and hotel category.Secondly,construct coupled coordination evaluation model and evaluation index system of supply and demand in city hotel industry.It analyzedcoupling coordination mechanism of hotel supply and demand system.It showed that the two systems provide assistance to each other and each element in the systemis of interaction,evolution and dynamic development;impel coordination between the two systems.There are significant characteristics of coupling coordinated development between the two systems.The paper constructs the coupling coordination evaluation model of supply and demand for tourism hotel industry,and establishesevaluation index system which reflects the relationship between two systems and their respective development stateeffectively.Among them,the tourism demand was reflected by inbound tourism and domestic tourism,consists of 18 concrete indexes include five aspects such as the number of tourists,consumption,consumption proportion,consumption potential and consumption percentage.The hotel supply was reflected by hotel development background,hoteleconomic strength,hotel management level,consists of 23 concrete indexes include eight aspects.Thirdly,the overall evaluation of inbound tourists for coupling system status of supply and demand in Xi’an City Hotel is higher than that of domestic tourists.It researches the coupling coordination degreebetween hotel supply and tourism demand in Xi’an by Quantitative data.It shows thatthe comprehensive development level increases steadily in hotel industry from 1997 to 2011,comprehensive evaluationvalue of tourism demand rises in fluctuation,and the supply and demand of hotel industry is overall changes from demand lag status to supply excess demand lagging behind.The coordination degree of inbound tourism demand and hotel supply is higher than that of domestic tourism,the coupling coordination degree of domestic tourism demand and hotel supply rises faster and fasterin recent years.The coordination degree of inbound tourism demand,domestic tourism demand and hotel industry has maintained a rising trend,and the coupling coordination degree of subsystems between inbound tourism demand and hotel supply are higher than that of domestic tourism demand.In the hotel industry system,the management levelmeet the needs of tourists best,the second is the hotel industry’s economic strength,the lowest is city comprehensive environmental system evaluation.Fourthly,the hotel management level,economic strength and the city environment are the key factors to affect the quality coupling coordinationof the hotel supply and demand.It exploredthe coupling coordination evaluation of each variable correlation of the hotel industry between supply and demand byvisitors inXi’an at the present stage.At the same time,it verified that the hotel supply and demand coupled coordination model and indicator variables are feasible.Itanalyzedthe estimation results of measure path relationship by SEM,and analyzed total evaluation of tourists to coupled coordination statebetween hotel supply and demand,and sequencingclose degree for coupling coordination evaluation between it and its hidden variable.It concluded thatthe close level between the subsystems coupling factors andcoupling coordination of supply and demand in hotel industry,the highest is hotel management level,the nextis the hotel economic strength,and then city comprehensive environmental system evaluation.This research tries to innovate in the following three aspects:Firstly,the innovative of research thinking:choosing tourists related behavior as display of hotel demand,choosing star hotel comprehensive index as display of hotel supply,using both synchronic and diachronic methods to research their coupling coordinate relationship in one platform.It breaks up the situation of the separation of demand and supply.Secondly,constructs the coupling coordination evaluation model and index system of hotel supply and demand.It is different from the past research focusing on only one aspect.It sets up a new research perspective by choosing the main factors which affect the two systems.Thirdly is the innovative selection of research method.The paper used several methods such as conceptual model—SEM,system coupling,index system construct to research the balance between hotel supply and demand.更多还原