【作者】 陈星；

【导师】 陈吉宁； 曾思育；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 环境科学与工程， 2017， 博士

【摘要】 水污染物减排是对经济系统和环境系统产生复杂影响的综合行动,涉及工业-生活-农业多部门,在技术和经济可行性上存在巨大差异。综合考虑经济-环境-技术多维度关系,建立系统性研究方法,定量评估水污染减排经济影响,模拟行业减排技术的特征和经济成本,为水污染物减排战略和相关政策制定提供科学基础。本研究构建了基于一般均衡模型和多目标优化模型的水污染减排经济技术分析模型,对工业-农业-生活部门/行业的水污染减排和经济行为进行刻画,连接经济-技术-环境-政策维度,从宏观上回答水污染减排的经济影响和部门间减排量分配问题,从行业层面回答减排目标实现的技术支撑和经济成本,模型由水污染减排一般均衡模型和水污染减排技术途径优化模型两个子模型构成。水污染减排一般均衡模型模拟了水污染减排的宏观经济影响和减排量的部门分配,研究表明:污染物削减对GDP的总体影响为负,当污染物削减10%时,GDP下降0.09%;仅依靠环境税对污染物削减的效果有限,当环境税为1.4元/千克时,GDP下降0.026%,污染物削减3%;识别了供水排水业、畜禽养殖业、造纸及纸制品业等是重点减排部门/行业并定量计算行业边际减排成本和减排量的分配;减排重点行业和需求收入弹性高的行业的消费对减排较敏感;相同削减率下,COD的边际削减成本低于氨氮,当削减率为10%时,COD边际削减成本为3.91万元/吨,氨氮为30.8万元/吨。水污染减排技术途径优化模型,重点分析了造纸业、畜禽养殖业和生活污水处理业的减排技术途径,研究表明:造纸业近期最优技术可实现污染物排放量下降,但减排成本仍高于预期,远期最优技术可实现COD排放下降11%,氨氮排放下降55%,但污染削减成本增加59%,需要对行业增加技术投入、促进技术进步;畜禽养殖行业的清粪方式对污染物排放影响最为明显,近期和远期最优技术均可实现污染物排放量下降、成本下降;生活污水处理业,近期最优技术可实现污染物排放量下降,但减排成本仍高于预期,远期最优技术可实现COD下降87%,氨氮下降91%,减排成本下降3-5%。本研究有助于提高我国在水污染治理领域的决策能力,发挥环境经济政策的市场作用,提升经济运行效率,推动行业减排战略布局和技术进步。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water pollution abatement is the comprehensive action that has complicated effects between the economic system and the environmental system.The discharge of water pollutants includes industrial sources,agricultural sources and urban source.There are great differences in the technical feasibility and economic feasibility among different sources.Taking multi dimension relationship among the economic,environment,and technology into account,establishing systematic method to quantitative assess the economic impact of water pollution abatement,and conducting water pollution abatement technologies according to different sectors and different pollutant discharge characteristics,are the essential foundation for the water pollution abatement.This study developed the technical and economic analysis model of water pollution abatement based on computable general equilibrium approach and multi-objective optimization method.Within the framework,water pollution abatement and economic behavior were characterized among industrial sectors,agricultural sector,and urban water sector;and economy-technology – environment multiple dimensions were connected.The model measured the economic impact of water pollution abatement and the distribution of abatement targets among different sectors from the macro perspective,and also provided technical pathways to achieve abatement targets with technical feasibility and economic feasibility form micro perspective.The integrated analysis model was consisted of water pollution abatement computable general equilibrium model and water pollution abatement technique optimization model.The water pollution abatement CGE model measured the macroeconomic impact of water pollution abatement and distributions of pollution abatement target among sectors.The result showed that: The impact of water pollution abatement was negative that GDP decreased by 0.09% when the total amount of COD and ammonia nitrogen discharge decreased by 10%;When environmental tax was 1.4 yuan / kg equivalent,GDP decreased by 0.026% and pollution discharged decreased by 3%;Key sectors of water pollution abatement,such as livestock and poultry breeding industry,water supply and wastewater drainage industry,and pulp and paper products industry,were recognized.The marginal abatement costs and pollution distributions among different sectors were calculated.The consumption of key sectors and sectors with high income elasticity of demand was sensitive to water pollution abatement.The marginal abatement cost of COD was lower than ammonia nitrogen.When COD and ammonia nitrogen discharge decreased by 10%,their marginal abatement were 39.1 and 308 thousand yuan per ton.Water pollution abatement technique optimization model focused on key sectors of paper industry,livestock industry and urban wastewater treatment industry.The result indicated that: for paper industry,the short-term technology could achieve optimal water pollution abatement goals,but the cost was still higher than expected.Under the long-term optimal technology,COD and ammonia nitrogen discharge could decrease by 11% and 55%,but the cost would increase by 59%.Technological progress and further investment was needed in paper industry;Dung cleaning system of livestock had major impact of water pollution discharge.Both the short-term and long-term optimal technology in livestock industry could achieve lower pollution discharge and lower costs than pollution abatement goals;For urban wastewater treatment industry,the short-term technology could achieve optimal water pollution abatement goals,but the cost was still higher than expected.The long-term optimal technology could achieve COD decreased by 87%,ammonia nitrogen decreased 91%,and abatement cost decreased by 3-5%.This thesis is meaningful to improve the decision-making ability of China in the field of water pollution abatement.The study is also helpful to develop the economic role of environmental and economic policies,to improve the efficiency of economic operation,and to promote the strategic layout and technological progress for the industry.更多还原