【作者】 张红；

【导师】 于德介；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 机械工程， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 生态资源紧缺导致人类能源使用受到限制,并开始制约汽车产业的发展。2012年我国轿车保有量达到7126万辆,成为我国保有量最大的基本乘用车,也成为汽车产业能源消耗最大的部分,构成了我国生态资源耗费量最多的产业之一,其回收利用问题成为汽车产业报废车辆处理的重点,受到多方面的关注。合理拆解报废轿车可以减少其对建设用地生态资源的直接占用;合理回收利用报废轿车可以减少其对森林、水域等生态资源的间接占用。这些节约的生态资源可以进一步提高生态资源利用效率,为可再生能源生产及污染物吸收提供生态基础。本论文根据我国轿车发展的历史数据的特征,结合我国轿车产业的干预事件,估计出轿车报废量的预测模型。采用一款轿车做典型案例,计算出报废轿车金属材料在多种方案下的再生量、生态足迹和相应的节约量。根据所建立轿车保有量预测方程计算的预测值,估算出短期的报废轿车金属再生潜力和相应生态足迹的节约潜力。具体研究内容如下:(1)针对报废轿车制造来源复杂和轿车报废量难以预测的问题,将物质流分析方法引入报废轿车金属再生潜力研究领域,根据物质流质量平衡原理,系统分析了我国轿车报废量变化的因素,选择出轿车报废物质流预测的数据类型;通过分析已选择的轿车数据类型及相关值,为建立轿车的预测模型确定了较为合理的时间样本;在该时间样本内,根据轿车数据缺失的基本原因,运用灰色理论补充了研究所需辅助数据。针对偶然事件对轿车报废量变化规律干涉作用很大的问题,结合选定的时间样本,将干预理论与时间序列模型相结合,构建了轿车报废物质流时间序列模型并进行了短期预测。通过分析样本时间段的历史数据,给出了我国轿车物质流参数的时间序列的初步模型;根据模型仿真值与真实值的误差并对比历史数据分析,确定了对我国轿车影响的干预量及干预时间;结合干预理论对初始模型进行合理修正,并采用历史数据对修正模型进行了检验,结果显示该模型可以用于轿车生产量、销售量和进出口量的短期预测。(2)针对现行轿车回收利用方案对节能与环保重视不足,提出了相应的报废汽车金属零部件回收利用方案网络层次评价模型,并且采用证据合成理论解决了评价过程中数据部分冲突的问题。这一部分针对现阶段报废汽车回收利用的特点,归纳总结出报废汽车回收利用的评价准则,即能源消耗、环境排放、回收成本、技术风险准则,通过分析报废汽车回收技术标准设定准则的变化趋势,论证了节能与环保应该成为上述准则权重较高的设定准则;结合有一定代表性的专家评价数据并结合网络层次分析(Analytic Network Process,ANP),提出了以节能与环保为导向的网络层次评价模型;通过建立的模型评价了多种报废汽车金属零部件回收利用方案,得出结论:在报废汽车金属零部件可以采用多种回收方案利用时,建议采用“再制造”回收利用方案。(3)针对生态资源开始制约轿车产业发展的问题,将生态足迹理论应用于报废轿车金属回收利用领域,结合上一部分选定金属回收利用方案,为选择以生态资源节约为主导金属回收利用方案提供参考。采用一款国产轿车作为样本,结合相关拆解回收利用数据,计算出在不同回收利用方案下的样本轿车金属的再生量,同时计算出轿车金属回收利用的生态占用节约量,结果表明,采用部分金属再制造能够有效提高金属再生率,同时也可以大幅度减少报废轿车金属回收利用过程中的生态占用。(4)针对轿车产品报废在市场中存在迟滞的问题,将前文研究的时间序列参数结合轿车报废物质流分析,提出了包含轿车新陈代谢过程的保有量计算模型,并结合威布尔概率分布预测了轿车报废量和生态占用节约潜力。根据物质流分析中的新陈代谢理论,采用中间变量分析了轿车生产-使用-报废的新陈代谢过程,提出了轿车保有量计算模型,并结合轿车可靠性的威布尔寿命分布预测了轿车报废概率分布以及轿车报废量分布,最后对轿车报废量及金属再生潜力、生态占用节约潜力进行了预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shortage of ecological resource restricts energy’s using,and then limits development of automobiles industry.Chinese car inventory is 71.26 millions in 2012,so it has become china’s most basic passenger vehicle and their consumed energy is main aspect of automobile industry.Car industry has been one of which consume ecological resource now,and its recycling has attracted Chinese attentions.If the abandoned cars could be reasonably disassembled,consumption of ecological resource such as building area would be directly reduced.And if those cars could be recycled on suitable way,consumption of ecological resource such as forest and water area would be indirectly reduce.The reduced ecological resource will provide help to enhance using efficiency of ecological resource,and to produce renewable energy resource,and to absorb pollution.This paper builds up a predicted model based on characteristics of Chinese car industry’s historical development data and some events intervened with this industry.And then the regeneration metal and ecological footprint on different programs are calculated,and reduction among these programs by using a domestic car as sample is also computed.At last,the abandoned car’s metal regeneration potential and reduction’s potential about ecological footprint are estimated.The main work is studied as follows:(1)It is difficulty to predict amount of abandoned cars since they were manufactured by variety of factories.In order to solve question,we introduce material analytical method to study on the abandoned car’s metal regeneration potential.Factors influenced Chinese car inventory has been analyzed systematically in the second chapter of this paper,and then we find the data types which could predict amount of abandoned car.After analyzing Chinese car development’s data,the reasonable time sample is determined.At last,the censored data is supplied based on gray theory through analyzing the reason that data is censored.The selling and abandoning of the car can be interfered by happenstances.It would result into the difficulty of constructing the predicted model.In order to solve question,we intrude intervention theory into building up the time series model.After that,the end of life cars is forecasted in this paper.The constructed model is revised through evaluating error between simulation and true values.The modified model is verified throughhistorical data and could be used to predict cars’ production,sales and import or export in the near future.(2)In order to highlight importance of the rule of energy saving and environment protecting in car recycle programs’ selection,an analytic network process(ANP)model about metal part of abandoned vehicles’ recycle program in the fourth chapter is introduced.Through analysis of trend about end of life vehicles’ recycle standard,it is pointed out that the energy saves and environment protecting would be more important rule in the further.Based on the characteristics of vehicles recycle,the rule should include energy consumption,environment protecting,cost and risk.After evaluating variety of vehicles recycle programs through ANP model,it shows that when abandoned vehicles’ metal parts could be recycled with many kinds of programs at the same time,the re-manufacture program is the best one.(3)The ecological resource restricts development of car industry to a maximum extent.In order to solve question,we introduce the ecological footprint theory into field of abandoned vehicles recycle,to evaluate the effects of different programs on cars’ metal recycle.Using a domestic car as a sample,we have computed car’s metal re-growth and ecological resource saving with different programs.The results show that the part metal unit re-manufacture program is better choice to regenerate metal and save environment resource.(4)The car’ saling might be hysteretic in the market.In order to solve question,we constructed a model with metabolism process to calculate cars inventory,and predict the amount of abandoned cars by combining with weibull function.The cars’ producing –using-abandoning process is analyzed,and a model to forecast end of life cars’ distribution and amount is constructed.And the amount of abandoned cars,potential of cars’ metal re-growth and ecological resource are predicted.更多还原