【作者】 张玲玲；

【导师】 华薇娜；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 情报学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 在传统经济鱼类由于捕捞过度而使其资源减少的今天,对于一个在增长着的和渴望蛋白质的世界人口来说,南极磷虾以其资源丰富和营养价值高而引起世界各国的极大关注。开发南极磷虾资源,可以解决各国管辖海域渔业资源压力,减轻其他海区远洋渔业的竞争压力,同时也可增加各国在国际渔业管理领域的地位。各国纷纷开始到南极进行磷虾资源捕捞。南极磷虾是南大洋食物链中承前启后的中间环节,是生态系中的核心成员,如果一旦南极磷虾的资源遭到破坏,那将不是一个物种的灾难而是导致南大洋生态系统的破坏。鉴于此,对南极磷虾资源的保护,维护生态平衡和实现可持续发展越发显得重要。本文借助系统动力学的方法建立对南极磷虾资源可持续发展系统动力学模型,并对该模型进行仿真分析,最后得到如下结论:(1)南极磷虾种群变化驱动机制虽然当前的磷虾资源开发利用已经开始影响南极磷虾种群中个体数量的变化,但与南极磷虾种群中个体的巨大数量及其周期性变化相比,这种影响几乎微不足道。南极磷虾种群变化主要受磷虾出生率的影响。而且,南极磷虾出生率变化对单船净收益、总捕捞量、磷虾价格等有显著影响,导致上述变量的不稳定性增加,从而引发磷虾捕捞行业发展与磷虾市场的潜在危机。因此,维持南极海洋生态系统的稳定性将是保证南极磷虾种群延续的基本要求,也是维持磷虾捕捞行业发展与磷虾市场稳定的基本要求。(2)南极磷虾捕捞行业与磷虾市场发展促进因素政策因素加码、减少磷虾捕捞固定成本支出、提高人均磷虾需求量以及人均生产总值增长率与人口出生率的增加有利于渔船数增加、单船利润稳定、磷虾总捕捞量扩大和磷虾价格平稳,对南极磷虾捕捞行业与磷虾市场的可持续发展有积极的促进作用。其中,政策因素加码(鼓励渔船建造)与提升人均磷虾需求量是从供需两个方面提升南极磷虾捕捞行业与磷虾市场发展可持续性的最有效调控手柄。(3)南极磷虾资源可持续发展政策建议为促进南极磷虾资源的可持续发展,建议采用政策性的激励措施(如,发挥国有企业的政策倾向性特点)扩充磷虾捕捞的固定资产投资;落实磷虾捕捞行业准入标准和淘汰制度,革新磷虾捕捞技术实现渔船渔业的规模效益最大化;增加磷虾的利用途径、扩大磷虾的市场需求主体范围,形成不断增长的磷虾市场需求;实时监测并预估未来磷虾生物量变化规律,为磷虾捕捞生产提供科学信息;在国际框架下建立起各成员国共同开发的合作计划,按照统一的标准划分南极海洋生物资源开发、利用权益,保障南极磷虾资源的可持续利用开发。本研究基于南极磷虾资源可持续发展系统各子系统的划分与子系统间影响与反馈机制的刻画建立起了南极磷虾资源可持续发展系统动力学模型,为南极海洋生态可持续发展评估与模拟预测提供了研究工具;通过关键指标的关系解释和情景分析,评估了不同政策措施对南极海洋生态经济可持续发展的影响,并提出具体的政策建议,弥补了南极磷虾可持续发展中研究的缺憾,为系统动力学在极地领域应用的推广奠定了基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowaday,traditional economic fishes due to overfishing leading to the reduction of quantity and resource,but for the world people who are thirst of nutrition,the euphausia superba,which is rich in resource and high value of nutrition,is attracting the world’s eyes.Exploitation of euphausia superba can cope with stress of different countries in sea areas under the jurisdiction of fishing products,can cope with stress of distant fishing,in addition,can also get improvement of the international fishing management field status of different countries.Therefore,many countries catch euphausia superba in Antarctic.Euphausia superba is the important part of antarctic food chain,is the core component of encosystem,once the euphausia superba resource are damaged,it will leads to the whole antarctic encosystem broken down.Thus,to investigate euphausia superba resource is important to maintain antarctic ecological equilibrium.In this paper,with the help of System dynamic method,we make an euphausia superba resource sustainable development model,and Simulation analysis of this model,we can make following conclusions:1.Driving mechanism of euphausia superba population changeAlthough the development and utilization of current euphausia superba resources has already affected the change of individual number in the euphausia superba populations,which is almost negligible compared with the huge number of individuals in euphausia superba populations and their periodic changes.The change of euphausia superba populations is mainly affected by the birth rate of euphausia superb.In addition,the birth rate change of euphausia superba has a significant influence on single vessel net income,total catches,euphausia superba price,etc.the instability of which is increasing.This triggered latent crisis of fishing industry development and the market of euphausia superb.Maintaining the stability antarctic marine ecosystem is the basic requirements to ensure the euphausia superba populations in continuation,is the basic requirements to maintain the development of euphausia superba fishing industry and market stability.2.The stimulative factors of development of fishing industry and market of euphausia superbRaising policy factors,reducing the expenditure of euphausia superba fishing fixed costs,increasing the per capita demand of euphausia superb,and the increase of per capita GDP growth rate and birth rate is advantageous to the increasing of the number of fishing boats,the stability of single vessel profits,the expanding of totall catches of euphausia superb and the stability of the euphausia superb price,and has a positive role in promoting to the sustainable development of the euphausia superb fishing industry and euphausia superb market.Policy factors(encouraging fishing boats construct)and increasing the per capita demand of euphausia superb are the most effective control handle to rasie the sustainable development of fishing industry and market of euphausia superb from two aspects of demand and supply.3.The policy suggestion of euphausia superb resources system sustainable developmentTo promote the sustainable development of the euphausia superb resources,policy incentive measures are recommended to adopt(such as giving play to the characteristic of policy orientation of state-owned enterprises),to expand fixed asset investment of euphausia superb fishing;Carrying out the standards for admittance into industries and elimination system euphausia superb fishing industry,reforming the fishing technology of euphausia superb to realize the maximization of the scale economies of fishery;increasing the utilization ways of euphausia superb,and expanding the scope of the demand subject of euphausia superb to form growing market demand of euphausia superb;Real-time monitoring and forecasting the change rule of future euphausia superb biomass to provide scientific information for the production of euphausia superb fishing;Under the international framework establishing cooperation plan of each member country joint development and rights and interests of the development and utilization of Antarctic Marine living resources are divided with the unified standards to ensure the sustainable utilization and development of euphausia superb resources.Based on the separation of each subsystem and the effects and feedback mechanism between subsystems of euphausia superb resources sustainable development system,In this study,the antarctic krill resources system dynamics model for sustainable development is set up to provide a research tool for the evaluation and simulation prediction of the antarctic marine ecosystem sustainable development;through the relationship interpretation and situational analysis of the key indicators,the influence of different policies and measures to the antarctic marine ecological resources sustainable development is assessed,and some specific policy recommendations are made to make up for the drawback of the research in sustainable development of euphausia superb and to lay the foundation for the promotion of application of system dynamics in the polar areas.更多还原