【作者】 李军；

【导师】 李向阳；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2017， 博士

【摘要】 关键基础设施是基础设施中的关键部分,对国家和社会的正常运行起到关键支撑作用。电网作为一类关键基础设施,在国民日常生活与国家生存发展中影响巨大,一旦其遭到破坏就会直接威胁到社会稳定、经济发展。随着科学技术的发展,世界范围内的电网规模愈发庞大,为社会的发展提供可靠电力保障。与此同时,电网面临的问题也逐步显现出来,世界各地的电网事故频发,有些是因为自然环境变化导致,有些是人为的蓄意攻击,有些则是工作人员的错误操作造成的。然而,电网作为一种典型的复杂网络,事故造成的后果不是简单的设备损坏或区域停电,由于其具有级联失效的特性,网络中一部分的损坏可能造成其他相邻区域设备的损坏以及更大面积的停电事故。电网的安全管理也已经成为学界研究的一个热点。目前相关领域的研究文献认为,电网面临的主要安全问题来源于三个方面,分别为自然异动、人为异动和技术异动,尤以研究自然异动下电网问题的文献较多,成果也最为丰富。电网脆弱性的研究就是对此类研究问题的一个深入。本文从电网脆弱性的角度研究电网安全性及保护问题,以多属性评价理论、复杂网络理论和灾害学理论为基础,综合运用定性分析与定量分析结合的方法,定性分析了电网脆弱性的构成及影响因素,并对脆弱性的多属性构成进行量化处理,提出了相应的评估方法及模型,在此基础上对电网脆弱性进行综合评估。首先,在总体分析阶段。通过对相关文献的梳理总结,明晰电网脆弱性内涵及其与可靠性、风险性和重要性之间的逻辑关系,为全文的理论分析奠定基础;基于电网的脆弱性来源和脆弱性评估的目标,分析电网脆弱性的构成和评估内容,以及评估的理论基础和逻辑基础;并阐明脆弱性评估需要用到的相关理论和方法。关于脆弱性的构成,本文认为可以分为三部分,分别为网络单元脆弱性、网络结构脆弱性和异动诱发脆弱性。这三部分又可以继续细分,网络单元脆弱性可以分为单元内生脆弱性和环境诱发脆弱性;网络结构脆弱性可以分为网络结构初始脆弱性和级联失效脆弱性,级联失效脆弱性分为网络结构效率脆弱性和网络结构功能脆弱性,由于网络结构初始脆弱性可以看成是级联迭代为零时的级联失效脆弱性,则网络结构脆弱性可以直接看成由网络结构效率脆弱性和网络结构功能脆弱性组成;以及异动诱发脆弱性。其次,在个体问题分析阶段,主要研究了脆弱性评估过程中的关键点。第一个关键问题是电网的级联迭代失效问题,由于造成级联失效的原因主要来自于自然异动风险,因此本文在风险理论的基础上进行电网级联效应的研究,并基于级联效应评估了其造成的风险性后果和脆弱性后果;第二个关键问题是网络结构脆弱性指标权重问题,有时网络节点或边具有相近的结构脆弱性,而实际上网络中单元的运行状况存在很大差别,如果单纯评估结构上的脆弱性而忽略单元个体的情况,可能造成对相似单元的脆弱度辨识效果不佳,这时以可靠性为权重对脆弱指标赋权可以很好的解决这个问题。第三个关键问题是网络单元中节点结构(功能)脆弱性识别问题,电网为全社会提供电力保障,节点单元失效后对整体的功能影响越大其脆弱性就越高,功能影响通过电网节点单元提供电力保障大小(相对于总体该节点覆盖区域由于电能使用产生的总福利,其包括经济、文化、宜居和行政因素)来表示。再次,在解决以上三个关键问题后,根据脆弱性的构成建立了脆弱性综合评估框架,其包括:单元内生脆弱性、环境诱发脆弱性、网络结构效率脆弱性、网络结构功能脆弱性和异动诱发脆弱性。根据各属性脆弱性评估内容,构建分量评估模型及综合评估模型。在模型的构建过程中,将以上三个关键问题融入评估过程中,使得脆弱性评估中包含了对于电网风险性、可靠性和重要性的考虑,使得脆弱性成为一个更为适合用来评估电网安全程度的指标,避免了以往风险性、可靠性、重要性等单一评价的缺点,是一个比较综合全面的评价标准。最后,基于以上分析和综合评估模型,对S市电网的脆弱性情况进行了分析,分别分析了常态脆弱性、单一灾种脆弱性和多灾种脆弱性,结果给出了S市电网46个主要节点面临的脆弱程度,并对脆弱性结果进行了分析,提出了相应的保护措施,并以近年来S市发生的电网灾害为例,验证了本文研究结果的合理性,为电网的防灾、减灾等保护工作提供了一定的帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 Critical infrastructure,a crucial part of infrastructures,is the significant foundation of national development.Power network is one kind of critical infrastructure,greatly influencing people’s life and national development.Social stability and economic development would be destroyed if the power network runs out.With the development of science and technology,the scale of power net work rapidly increased,which induces the problem of power network and power network accidents around the world.The accidents come from natural hazards,terrorist attack and faulty operation of workers.Power network is a classic complex network,one node or edge of the power network runs out may affect other nodes and edges in the network because of the cascaded effect of complex network,and then the equipment in the nodes would run out too.Risk management of power network draws increasing attention,researchers considered that the risk of power network comes from three parts,natural abnormal change,factitious abnormal change and technological abnormal change,and most of the research are about natural abnormal change.Research on power network vulnerability is an in-depth study of power network issues.This paper studies the protection of power network from the perspective of vulnerability on the basis of the multi-attribute comprehensive theory,complex network theory and science of disaster theory.Qualitative analysis method and quantitative analysis method were used to study the constitution and influence factors of power network vulnerability in order to propose a vulnerability assessment model.Firstly,literature and theory review enhanced logical relationship between power network vulnerability and reliability,risk and importance to get a theoretical basis for the whole paper;based on the sources of vulnerability and the target of assessment to analyze the constitution of power network vulnerab ility,the content of assessment,the theory basic and logical basic;and showed the theory and method which would be used in vulnerability assessment.The constitution of power network vulnerability: In the research,we divided it into five parts--equipment components vulnerability,environmentally induced vulnerability,network structure efficiency vulnerability,network structure function vulnerability and abnormal change induced vulnerability.Secondly,the research studied three key points of the asses sment process.The first point was power network cascaded iterative issue.Because nature hazards were the main reason of cascaded iterative failure,this research studied cascaded iterative based on the risk theory,and assesses the risk and vulnerability result of cascaded iterative effect.The second point was about the weight of network structure vulnerability,the vulnerability of the point and ledge in the network sometimes may be the same which yield from topology index calculation,but there exists much difference among them,Thus,if only evaluating the vulnerability which comes from topology index calculation but ignoring the truth,we may make some mistakes that could not reflect the truth.Getting weight from reliability can solve this issue.The third point is how to assess the network structure function vulnerability.The more important one point was,the more significant influence the function of the network would have if deleting one point,the more vulnerable the network structure was.Therefore,the function vulnerability of one point is crucial,because he power network provided power for the society,including company,government,family,school,hospital and so on.Thirdly,we built a frame of vulnerability assessment after solving the abo ve three issues,which included equipment components vulnerability,environmentally induced vulnerability,network structure efficiency vulnerability,network structure function vulnerability and abnormal change induced vulnerability,then,we built the component assessment model and comprehensive assessment model based on the vulnerabilities contents.In the process of building model,considering the three issues,the comprehensive vulnerability maintained risk,reliability and importance assessment,which was a better index for assessing safety of power network.Finally,based on the above analysis and comprehensive vulnerability assessment model,we studied the power network of S city and analyzed the normal vulnerability and disaster scenarios vulnerability,got the vulnerability of 46 nodes in the power network of S city.In the end,we gave some comments and suggestions for protecting the power network of S city according to the result of vulnerability assessment result and gave some assistance to take precautions against natural calamities and reduce natural disaster influence.Through comparing the research result with the power network disaster happened two years ago,we found that they were similar,and the assessment model could be used to efficient ly solve the actual problem.更多还原