【作者】 杨丽凤；

【导师】 寇子明；

【作者基本信息】 太原理工大学 ， 机械工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 我国正处在工业化加速发展的时期,危险化学品异地运输不断增加,由道路交通事故引发的突发环境污染事件频繁发生,给人民生命财产及环境安全造成了巨大的威胁。现有的应急车辆普遍功能单一,现场信息不能及时准确的采集传输、缺乏科学的应急处置决策支持、专业性应急处理处置装备不足且技术水平低。因此研究快速高效、具有综合应急响应能力的移动应急平台关键技术具有重要的意义。在“863计划”重大项目课题“典型煤化工产业集聚区重大环境污染事故应急技术开发与应用示范”(2008AA06A415)的资助下,本文进行了具有现场应急监测、辅助决策指挥、处理处置功能的突发环境污染事件移动应急平台的综合集成,并对其中的应急决策支持系统、应急处理处置系统等关键技术展开研究。论文提出了突发环境污染事件移动应急平台的综合集成开发方法,并进行了平台的设计与集成开发。将专家、知识及机器相结合,进行了平台的功能设计和方案设计,以及应急决策指挥系统、应急处理处置系统的研究开发,实现了平台从定性到定量的综合集成。平台具有现场信息监测采集传输功能,应急预案快速生成评价调整、大气污染预警、应急路径规划等应急决策支持功能,现场与指挥中心协同决策指挥功能,以及污染物捕消、收容、倒罐等应急处理处置功能;具有多功能、智能化、一体化,反应迅速、机动灵活的特点。针对事故现场与特征污染物的不确定性,及应急决策与处置的差异性,提出了一种多方法融合的应急预案推理技术。将改进层次分析法(R-AHP)、基于案例推理(CBR)与基于规则推理(RBR)相融合,进行突发环境污染事件应急处置预案的生成。提出应急处置案例的表示框架,并构建应急处置案例库;利用R-AHP建立了案例检索属性指标体系及各指标的权重;采用最近相邻函数法进行案例相似性的度量;并基于主动学习策略进行案例的学习及案例库的维护。提出用不确定性产生式规则表示应急处置知识,建立正向不确定性的推理机制及冲突消解策略。将Delphi法和盲数理论相融合,使用专家打分的方法,将专家不确定性的评价用盲数定量表示,并进行处置预案的可信度评价。将预案生成和专家评价过程相融合,人机结合共同完成应急预案的调整工作,实现应急处置预案系统从定性到定量的综合集成。针对事故应急救援需要多级、多个部门联动,应急救援的知识和资源在物理或逻辑上位置分散的情况,提出了基于多智能体的突发环境污染事件应急决策模型,构建了基于多智能体的突发环境污染事件应急决策支持系统。以液氨泄漏为例,将高斯烟团模型与WebGIS相结合,研究了大气污染扩散预警技术,其扩散范围、应急路径规划为应急预案的实施提供了动态的、科学的、具体的方案。给出了应急Agent的定义,设计了界面Agent、通信Agent、管理Agent、任务Agent组织,并将应急预案及应急预警技术进行Agent封装,采用消息/对话方式作为各Agent之间的通信机制,采用基于任务分担和基于结果共享的策略按照应急决策模型进行各Agent之间的协作,共同完成复杂的突发环境污染事件应急决策任务。针对应急救援中专业性应急处理处置装备不足且技术水平低的情况,构建了危险化学品应急处理处置知识库,并进行了应急处理处置系统的模块化设计。定比配比-喷洒捕消-抽吸收容多功能应急设备具有定比配置溶液、连续供应溶液、旋转喷洒及消防喷洒多种方式捕消等特点,可实现对大气污染物的捕消稀释、对地面污染物的收集。远控隔爆兼本安型电液闸阀、智能型远程控制本安电动球阀的设计研究为危险化学品储罐或管道泄漏的应急提供了解决方案。直动式氨用应急快速关闭阀的应用为液氨泄漏应急提供了可靠的响应措施。基于情景分析法的移动应急平台模拟演练,以及移动应急平台的实际救援应用都表明该移动应急平台的功能和性能达到了预期的目的。该平台不仅能够为危险化学品道路运输突发环境污染事件的应急救援提供直接的技术和装备支持,而且也为其它突发环境污染事件的应急工作提供了一种应急方法和解决手段。相关的技术及应用研究对提高我国应急管理水平,提高处置突发环境污染事件的能力,促进经济和社会的和谐发展具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is in a period of accelerated development of industrialization, and the remote transportation of hazardous chemicals is becoming more and more.Due to road accident, sudden environmental pollution incident occurs frequently.For people and the environment, the incident is a huge threat to the safety of their life and property. But the function of the existing emergency vehicles usually is single and there are some problems: firstly, the site information cannot be collected more accurately and be transmitted more quickly; secondly,the emergency decision lacks of a scientific support; and thirdly, the specialized emergency treatment and disposal equipment is insufficient and the technology level is low. Therefore, the research of the key technologies for a mobile emergency platform, which is more fast and efficient and can generate an emergency response more comprehensive, holds important significance for the safety of industrial production and daily life. Under the support of the national high-tech R&D program of china (863 program) the development and the application of emergency technology for serious environmental pollution incident in coal chemical industry region (2008AA06A415), a comprehensive integration of the emergency mobile platform for the sudden environmental pollution incident is studied, which holds some functions as below: emergency monitoring, decision support command, and treatment and disposal. Moreover,the key of the emergency decision supported system and the emergency treatment and disposal systems are studied in paper.The paper proposes a comprehensive integrated approach for the development of a mobile emergency platform, and with this approach, an emergency platform is designed and developed. In this approach, with the combining of the expertise, knowledge and machine, the platform can leap from qualitative to quantitative. Under the guide of this approach, the paper does the function and structure design for the platform, and also establish the emergency command decision system and the emergency treatment and disposal system.Then, these two systems are integrated with the emergency communications equipment. For the emergency decision support part, it can realize the following functions: the monitoring, the collection and the transmission of the site information; the quick generating, evaluating and adjustment to the emergency plan; air pollution warning; emergency path planning; and collaborative decision-making and command functions for the accident site with the command center. For the emergency treatment and disposal part, it can realize the following functions: the neutralization- pumping and accommodating for the pollutants. This platform holds some characteristics, such as multifunction,intelligent, integration, rapid response and mobile and flexible。There has an uncertainty for the accident site and the characteristics of pollutants, so the corresponding emergency decision and the emergency treatment and disposal will have some differences. For this situation, a multi-method integration reasoning technique for the emergency plan is proposed. These methods include the reformed-analytic hierarchy process(R-AHP), the case-based reasoning (CBR) and the rule-based reasoning (RBR).With these methods been integrated into this technique, it can be used to generate the emergency treatment plan for a sudden environmental pollution incident. The represent frame of the emergency treatment plan is proposed, and the database for the emergency treatment case is constructed in this paper. The property index system and the weight of each index are constructed with R-AHP.The similarity between cases is evaluated by the nearest neighbor function method. The case study and the case database maintain take the active learning strategies. An uncertainty of production rule to represent the knowledge of emergency treatment and disposal is put forward, and a forward uncertainty reasoning mechanism and a conflict resolution strategy are also builded. With the integration of Delphi method and blind number theory, using the method of expert scoring, the uncertain evaluate of expert is expressed by the blind number theory, and the reliability of disposal plan is evaluated. With the integration of plan generating with the expert evaluating, the adjustment of the emergency plan is accomplished by the combination of human with the machine. So, the planning system of emergency treatment and disposal can realize a comprehensive integration from qualitative to quantitative.For a sudden accident, a joint operation of multilevel and multiple departments is needed. For the knowledge and resources of emergency rescue,its locations are physically or logically scattered. Due to this reason, based on multi-agent, the paper builds an emergency decision model for the sudden environmental pollution incidents. Take the ammonia leak as an example, the GAUSS puff model is combined with the WebGIS, the warning technology for the diffusion of atmospheric pollution is studied. The diffusion range and the emergency path planning provide a dynamic, scientific, specific program for the implementation of contingency plans. The emergency agent has been defined,and the design be carried out for the interface agent, the communication agent,the management agent and the task organization agent. The technique of the contingency plans and the emergency warning has been encapsulated by the agent technology. The news/dialogue mode is used for the communication between agents adopts. Based on the strategy of task sharing and results sharing,according with the emergency decision-making model, agents collaborate to accomplish a complex task for the sudden environment pollution emergency decision.For the insufficient of the specialized emergency treatment and disposal equipment in an emergency rescue, and for the low level of technology for the equipment, a knowledge database for the emergency treatment and disposal of hazardous chemicals is constructed, and also the modular design of the emergency treatment and disposal systems is studied. The multi-function emergency equipment holds some characters such as: fixed percentage matching-rotating spray and neutralization- pumping and accommodating, so it can realize the dilution and neutralization of the atmospheric pollutants, and also can do the collection of the ground pollutants. The design of the electric-hydraulic driven slide valve and the electric ball valve can provide a solution for the leakage accident emergency of hazardous chemical storage tanks and pipeline. The application of the emergency closing slide valve to ammonia leaking can act as a reliable response to the emergency of the ammonia spill.Based on the scenario analysis, some simulation exercises of this mobile emergency platform are performed. The results of these simulations and the actual rescue application of this platform can prove that the function and the performance of this platform all achieve the desired purpose. This platform not only can provide direct technical and equipment support to the emergency rescue of sudden environmental pollution incidents for the road transportation of dangerous chemicals, but also can provide a method and solve to the emergency of other unexpected environmental pollution incidents. The related research on the technique and the application hold great significance to the improving of the emergency management level, and can improve the ability of disposal of sudden environmental pollution incidents. It also has vast importance to the harmonious development of the economy and society.更多还原