【作者】 廖雅珍；

【导师】 徐坡岭；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 世界经济， 2017， 博士

【摘要】 后发国家的经济现代化是一个重要的理论问题和重大的实践问题。尽管落后国家的政府和社会都有着强烈的现代化诉求和愿望,但成功实现现代化的国家并不多。那些深陷经济现代化陷阱的国家如何回到正确的现代化道路上,那些仍在经济现代化道路上苦苦探索的国家如何成功到达彼岸,这些问题吸引着一代又一代学者们的目光。俄罗斯市场化转型之后,先是陷入现代化停顿之中,后又走上政府主导型的经济现代化之路,迄今为止,发展过程并不顺利。尽管经济现代化取得了一些成绩,但经济结构畸形,创新动力不足,高度能源依赖和经济增长缺乏可持续性等问题依然困扰着俄罗斯。如何理解和认知俄罗斯当前的经济现代化道路,俄罗斯经济现代化的经验教训能给我们什么样的启示,这是写作本论文的出发点。现代化是一个内涵丰富的概念,经济现代化是其中的重要维度,并决定着社会现代化、政治现代化、文化现代化等其他维度现代化的进程和方向。界定和度量经济现代化是展开具体分析的前提。为此,在分析现代化的内涵和厘清经济现代化的模式的基础上,对度量经济现代化的方法和标准进行了比较充分的探讨。对俄罗斯经济现代化的发展演化过程进行初步的全景式扫描,是论文第三章的工作。这里首先探讨了俄罗斯转型后经济现代化停顿问题,以及政府主导型经济现代化是如何内生于当时的俄罗斯社会政治环境的,初步讨论了俄罗斯经济现代化水平和发展状况的衡量问题。从一般标准看,俄罗斯经济现代化发展并不顺利,还存在许多问题。对这些问题的主要表现及其内在原因进行深入分析是论文的核心部分,这部分内容在第四章和第五章展开。之后,论文从俄罗斯经济现代化的实践条件出发分析了俄罗斯未来的政策选择问题。最后讨论俄罗斯经济现代化经验与教训的启示。基于上述逻辑,论文在围绕普京政府主导的俄罗斯经济现代化问题展开论述时,形成以下篇章结构。第1章绪论部分主要介绍研究的背景;经济现代化及俄罗斯现代化问题研究的主要进展与问题,详细阐述了20世纪50-60年代的经典经济现代化理论、70-80年代的“新现代化理论”和80年代以后的发展经典经济现代化理论。并论述俄罗斯政府主导型经济现代化的进展与问题;提出本文的结构安排、理论分析工具、创新之处和不足。第2章主要介绍经济现代化的理论。首先,介绍经济现代化内涵,详细阐述的经典经济现代化、第二次经济现代化和综合经济现代化理论;其次,从理论模式和经验模式上看待经济现代化的模式,进而得出不同国家不同时期政府在经济现代化中的作用不同的结论;再次,从经济增长、经济进步和经济转型三个指标(具体的分指标是历史的、变化的)建立经典经济现代化、第二次经济现代化和综合经济现代化的模型;最后,从政府主导机制(政府强度和政府自主性)、发育良好的公民社会和有利的外部环境探讨政府主导型经济现代化有效运行的条件。第3章介绍俄罗斯政府主导型经济现代化的概况。首先,介绍俄罗斯经济现代化演进历程——暂时中断、启动和实施阶段;其次,探讨俄罗斯经济现代化的目标和政府主导的具体表现。俄罗斯经济现代化的目标包括建立集约型的经济增长方式、建立多元化的经济发展模式和优化经济结构三方面内容。政府主导具体表现在由政府制定经济现代化战略、经济现代化方案、主导产业和为了使这些战略方案主导产业能顺利实施,俄罗斯在意识形态领域和制度建设营造威权的政治环境;再次,量化分析俄罗斯经济现代化水平,发现俄罗斯并没有完成经典经济现代化、第二次经济现代化和综合经济现代化,主要是经济进步指标较差;最后,分析俄罗斯选择政府主导型经济现代化的必要性和可行性。必要性主要考虑应对2008金融危机和实现强国梦想,可行性主要是考虑传统文化、普梅经济政治成就、发育不良的市场经济的影响。第4章分析普京治下政府主导型经济现代化出现的问题。具体表现在经济增长粗放、经济发展模式单一和经济结构不合理。进一步看,经济增长粗放表现在固定资产投资效率和能源利用率的较低;在经济发展模式上,俄罗斯依赖能源出口贸易,贸易竞争力低,创新绩效不明显;在经济结构上,产业结构失衡(产业结构“伪升级”、产业内部不合理,产业结构与就业结构偏离较高)、收入分配结构不合理、区域经济发展失衡、资源配置的主导方错位等问题。第5章从政府主导机制、公民社会和俄罗斯外部环境等三方面分析俄政府主导型经济现代化进展缓慢的原因。首先,低效的政府主导机制表现在政府强度(包括政府理性和政府自主性)不足和自律不够。其中,政府理性不足一方面表现为政治精英中对经济现代化的目的、手段、速度存在差异。另一方面俄罗斯将国防工业作为主导产业,但国防工业在促进就业、技术进步上都未达到预期状态。政府自主性不足主要体现在政府被自然资源和国防工业利益集团“俘获”,在产业政策、贸易政策、国家战略、研发投入、资金对利益集团的倾斜间接影响创新部门,造成研发人员流失、产业结构调整乏力等问题。政府自律不够,自我约束能力差,腐败不利于营造良好的国内环境。其次,俄罗斯公民社会与经济现代化融合度较低,公民社会发育迟缓,无法为市场经济提供智力支持、在创造就业和拉动经济增长上与发达国家比,差距较大。再次,不利的外部环境,一是受到美欧的制裁,经济受到严重的冲击;二是在后苏联空间内,俄罗斯主导的欧亚经济联盟对俄实现经济现代化的作用不是很明显,且俄过于明显的政治意图让其他成员国心存不安,俄罗斯寄希望于通过欧亚经济联盟达到与美欧抗衡的目的很难达到;三是世界经济面临下行压力,不利于其经济复苏和发展。第6章从提高政府主导机制有效性、营造竞争性市场环境,发展创新经济、建立公民社会、营造良好的外部环境等4方面构建俄罗斯政府主导型经济现代化的未来政策选择。首先,加强政府能力建设和协调控制各利益集团提高政府主导机制的有效性;其次,通过培育、促进要素流动和鼓励中小企业发展来营造良好的市场竞争环境,积极发展创新经济,摆脱对能源的依赖;再次,通过壮大中产阶层和培育公民文化加快公民社会的发展;最后,俄罗斯需要在各方利益契合的基础上处理好与美欧、欧亚经济联盟、中国的关系。第7章介绍俄罗斯政府主导型经济现代化对中国经济新常态的启示,在经济新常态下,要合理定位政府与市场的关系,构建权力清单、责任清单加强政府治理能力现代化,发展积极外交,为中国经济发展保障良好的外部环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economic modernization of developing countries is an important theoretical issue and also a major practical problem.Although developing countries have strong desires for modernization,only few can make the dream come true.How can developing countries take a correct road to achieve modernization? Scholars have been committing themselves to find an answer.After the transformation of the Russian market,Russia stopped modernization and then its government played a leading role in economic modernization.However,the process of government-oriented modernization is not that successful so far.Its economic modernization has made some achievements,but Russia is still troubled by a variety of problems: abnormal economic structure,low motivation for innovation,over-dependency on energy and unsustainable economic growth.This paper illustrates and draws enlightenment from the experience of recent Russian economic modernization.Modernization is a concept full of connotations.Economic modernization,one of its important dimensions,determines the process and direction of other dimensions like social modernization,political modernization and cultural modernization.To define and measure economic modernization are the premise of concrete analysis.Therefore,the methods and standards to measure economic modernization are fully discussed based on the analysis of the connotation of modernization and the classification of economic modernization.Chapter three in this paper makes a preliminary panoramic scanning of the development and evolution of Russian economy modernization.It discusses the stagnation of Russian economic modernization after the transition,and the birth of government-led economic modernization in complex social and political circumstances that time and the measurement of the level and the development of Russia economic modernization.Generally,Russian economy modernization developed unfavorably;there are still many problems.Analysis of the main performance and the internal reasons of these problems is the core of the thesis which is demonstrated in chapter four and chapter five.Then,the thesis analyzes the policy-making for Russia in the future from the practical conditions of the Russian economy modernization.Finally,the enlightenment and lessons drawn from the experience of Russian economic modernization are presented.Based on above logic,this paper explores Russian economic modernization dominated by the Putin administration.Chapter 1 introduces the background of the research,previous studies on economic modernization and Russia’s economic modernization at home and abroad.the connotations of economic modernization are interpreted.What are elaborated are classic theories of economic modernization popular in 1950 s and 1960 s,the “new modernization theory” popular in 1970 s and 1980 s and the post-classical-theory of economic modernization after 1980 s.The structure of the paper,methods employed in the research,the theoretical analysis tools,the innovative aspects and shortages of this paper are also mentioned in this part.Chapter 2 mainly discusses theories on economic modernization.Firstly,the paper introduces classical economic modernization,the second economic modernization and the comprehensive economic modernization.Secondly,this part illustrates that the governments of different countries make a difference to economic modernization in different periods from the theoretical model and experience model of economic modernization.Thirdly,a classic economic modernization model,a second economic modernization model and a comprehensive economic modernization model are established based on three dimensions — economic growth,economic progress and economic transformation.Finally,this part proposes the conditions for effective operation of the government-led economic modernization from three perspectives — effective government-leading mechanism,well-developed civil society and favorable external environments.Chapter 3 introduces the evolutionary process of economic modernization in long Putin Era.Firstly,the history of Russian economic modernization is described: stagnation phase,initialization phase and implementation phase.Secondly,the goals of Russian economic modernization are explored which includes establishing an intensive mode of economic growth,establishing a diversified mode of economic development and optimizing the economic structure.Russian government plays a leading role in making policies on strategy for economic modernization,schemes of economic modernization and leading industries.Thirdly,after calculating the levels of Russian economic modernization,it is believed that Russia has not achieved the classic economic modernization,let alone the second economic modernization and the comprehensive economic modernization.This mainly results from the poor economic progress indicators.Finally,the reason why Russia chooses the government-led economic modernization is analyzed.The 2008 financial crisis and construction of a powerful country make it a necessity.Traditional culture,Putin and Medvedev’s economic and political achievements,underdevelopment of the market economy make it feasible.Chapter 4 analyses the problems of government-leading economic modernization in long Putin Era.The problems are low economic efficiency,single mode of economic development and the imbalance of economic structure.Specifically,low economic efficiency shows in the decline of fixed assets investment and energy utilization rate.As to the mode of economic development,Russia is highly dependent on energy exports.Its uncompetitive trade and low innovative performance are obvious.Russian’s economic structure is imbalanced which is demonstrated by its unbalanced industrial structure,its unreasonable income distribution structure,its imbalanced regional economic development and mismatch of the dominant party for allocating resources.Chapter 5 mainly analyzes the reasons why Russian government-oriented economic modernization is slowly progressed in terms of government-leading mechanism,civil society development and external environment.First,lowly efficient government-leading mechanism is lack of government’s strength(including government rationality and government autonomy)and self-discipline.Insufficient government rationality is demonstrated by the political elite’ differences in understanding the purpose,the means and the speed of economic modernization.On the other hand,Russia takes the defense industry as its leading industry,but the low gray correlation coefficient indicates that the defense industry has no relationship with economic growth.The defense industry cannot promote employment and technological progress as expected.The lack of government autonomy is mainly reflected by the fact that the government is captured by natural resources and national defense industry interest groups.They have an indirect influence on innovation departments in terms of industrial policy-making,trade policy,national strategy and R&D investment.The government’s poor self-discipline is highlighted by a wide range of corruption.Second,the integration of Russian civil society and the economy modernization is in a low level.Civil society develops too slowly to provide intellectual support,to create employment and to stimulate economic growth.Third,the external environment is unfavorable for Russia.The Ukraine crisis,America’s and Europe’s sanctions against Russia and uncertain future of the Eurasian Economic Union make Russia’s external environment worse.Chapter 6 constructs a security system for Russian economic modernization from terms of government-leading mechanism,competitive market environment,civil society development and external environment.First,the government should strengthen its ability of administration and coordinate the movements of various interest groups.Secondly,create a competitive market environment by promoting the flow of elements and encouraging the development of small and medium-sized enterprises,develop innovative economy and get rid of dependence on energy.Third,develop the civil society through the growth of the middle class and cultivation of the citizen culture.Finally,Russia needs to get along well with the United States,European countries,the Eurasian Economic Union and China on the basis of the interests.Chapter 7 proposes some enlightenment about Russia’s government-leading economic modernization for China’s New Normal.Under the circumstances of the “new normal” of China’s economy,it’s important to balance the relationship between government and market,construct the power list and responsibility list and advance administrative capacity.It’s also important to make friends with other countries for China’s economic development.更多还原