【作者】 肖赟；

【导师】 魏朗；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 我国交通基础设施建设已经取得了显著成绩,但是综合运输服务体系并不完善,大部分旅客出行要自己安排行程,运输效率和服务质量不高,客运行业面临着无效供给过剩和有效供给不足的结构性问题。在交通基础设施基本完善的前提下,如何从供给侧层面上提高旅客全过程出行的效率,是现阶段推进交通运输供给侧结构性改革、促进综合运输体系建设、提升交通运输服务质量亟待解决的问题。完整旅客运输产品是运输供给方通过整合现有基本运输业务,为旅客提供全过程、一体化的位移服务。本文以完整旅客运输产品为研究对象,在中间层组织的体系架构下,就完整旅客运输产品供给的关键技术进行深入研究,为发展完整旅客运输产品提供理论依据和方法支撑。本文的重要内容如下:完整旅客运输产品的市场容量预测研究。从供给侧结构性改革的角度定义了完整旅客运输产品的概念,分析完整旅客运输产品的市场特征、供给方式和需求环境,设计旅客出行调查问卷,对旅客出行方式选择进行抽样调查,通过个体指标、出行指标和期望指标等角度,辨识旅客选择完整旅客运输产品的影响因素。应用非集计理论中的二项logit模型,在缺乏历史数据支撑的情况下,构建完整旅客运输产品需求的预测模型,在价格可变下定量化预测完整旅客运输产品的需求规模,为运输服务商预判运输市场容量和调整运输发展策略奠定基础。中间组织下的完整旅客运输产品组织模式与伙伴选择研究。构建中间层组织供给完整旅客运输产品的框架体系,从技术特性和企业分类的角度,探究了完整旅客运输产品供给的组织模式。从资源设施、服务质量、成本费用、财务风险、发展潜力和合作兼容等6个方面,构建多环节-多主体下合作伙伴选择的评判集,综合应用ISM模型和加权模糊Hamming距离法,研究复杂网络下完整旅客运输产品的合作伙伴选择方法,解决模糊信息条件下的合作伙伴适宜度的量化问题,形成较为完善的组织层构建协同理论和模型方法。完整旅客运输产品的定价和收益分配方法研究。引入了供给意愿和支付意愿的概念,将产品定价分为成本补偿阶段、旅客需求阶段和企业发展战略阶段,研究了完整旅客运输产品的定价策略。针对完整旅客运输产品中间层组织的特性,以提升运输服务质量为主线,构建了多因子二阶段收益分配模型,第一阶段主要考虑成员的服务质量和成本,是成本补偿阶段,第二阶段主要考虑成员的资源、信誉和投诉等因子,是利润分配阶段,为中间层组织科学分配收益提供了合理有效的方法。完整旅客运输产品实现机制研究和实证应用。研究中间层组织发展完整旅客运输产品的作用机理,分析完整旅客运输产品的有效供给方式,构建了完整旅客运输产品供给的关键技术和实现机制框架。以合肥到芜湖为例,从需求预测、伙伴选择、运价策略和收益分配等方面,用实例验证了关键技术的可行性和有效性,为供给完整旅客运输产品,提升交通运输服务质量,提供了理论基础和方法借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 China transport infrastructurehas gota great development,but the integrated transport service system is not perfect.For example,most of the passengers have to make travel plans by themselves,as a result,the travel is in low efficiency and the cost accounts for a higher proportion of social activities,The passenger transport industry is facing the structural problem that Invaid supply is surplus but effective supply is insufficient.Based on the perfect infrastructure,how to improve the supply efficiency of the completed passenger transportation productsby the supply side,and how to solve the critical techniques of the completed passenger transportation product operation,is important for Promoting the transportation structural reform of the supply-side,promoting the integrated transportation system construction and improving the transportation service quality.Transport enterprises provides the whole process and the integrated service for the passengerthrough the integration of the basic transportation service,This paper mainly studied the completed passenger transportation product,carried out research on the critical techniques andbuilt a basic framework based on the Intermediation Theory,which have provided theoretical basis and method support for the development of completed passenger transportation products.The main contents are as follows:Ⅰ.Research on demand prediction of completed passenger transportation product.This paper defined the concept of complete passenger transportion product from the perspective of structural reform by the supply-side,analyzed the market characteristics,supply style and demand environment of the completed passenger transportation product,and then designed the passenger travel questionnaire,carried on the sample survey to the passenger travel mode choice.At last,analyzed the factors through the individual attribute,travel attribute and travel expectation angle.Based on the Binomial Logit Model in the disaggregate theory,this paper built a forecasting model of the demand in the absence of historical data.This model can be used to forecast the demand scale under the variable price,which can lay the foundation for predicting the transportation service providers’ capacity and adjusting the transport development strategy.Ⅱ.Study on the organizational model and partner selection of completed passenger transportation products based on the Intermediation Theory.This paper constructed the frame system of the intermediation to supply completed passenger transportation products,and explored the organization mode from the angle of technical characteristics and enterprise classification.As a result,the paper bulit a Multi-link-multi-agent selection model from the aspects of resource facilities,service quality,cost,financial risk,development potential and cooperation compatibility.The ISM model and the Weighted Hamming Distance Method are used synthetically,to study the method of partner selection for complex passenger transportation products under complex network,and to solve the quantification problem of partner’s suitability under the condition of fuzzy information,so as to form a more perfect coordination theory and model method of organization layer construction.Ⅲ.Research on pricing and revenue allocation of completed passenger transportation products.The concepts of supply willingness and willingness to pay were introduced to study the pricing strategy of completed passenger transportation products.The pricing of product was divided into cost compensation stage,passenger demand stage and enterprise development stage.In order to improve the quality of transportation service,a multi-factor two-stage profit distribution model was constructed.The first stage ws the cost compensation stage,mainly considered the service quality and cost of.The second stage was the stage of profit distribution,the main consideration was the resources,reputation and complaint factors of the members,which also provided a reasonable and effective method for the intermediation distributing the income scientifically.Ⅳ.Research on the realization mechanism of completed passenger transportation products and its application.This paper studied the mechanism of the intermediation for developing the completed passenger transportation products,analyzed the effective supply mode,and constructed the frameworkof the key technology and implementation mechanism.Taking Hefei to Wuhu as an example,the feasibility and effectiveness of the key technologies were verified,from the aspect of demand forecasting,partner selection,tariff strategy and profit distribution.All of these have improved the sevice qulity,and provided the theoretical basis and reference.更多还原