【作者】 李之红；

【导师】 袁振洲；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2017， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,各类人群密集场所由于火灾、地震、恐怖袭击等突发事件导致的恐慌和拥挤踩踏事故风险加剧,如何降低或避免由于突发事件导致的人员伤亡和财产损失是当前研究的热点问题之一。通过对当前行人行为模型总结分析发现,虽然在分析疏散中的许多现象和过程方面取得了大量成果,但既有疏散仿真工具经常忽视人的行为,将行人视为粒子进行模拟,缺乏个体行为与群体演化的关联性探索,模型与仿真中对行人个人特征及其影响因素较少涉及。社会心理学领域的理论和研究则指出,这些因子对于行人疏散决策行为具有重要影响。而行人的组织与疏散仿真是拥挤场所安全评估的必要手段,因此深入研究行人个体、组与群体行为,探索考虑个体行为差异的群体疏散模型,对提高应急疏散能力和保障公共安全具有重要意义。本文结合人群密集场所行人认知与决策行为调查,分析了有关认知与心理反应的社会经济学因子,揭示了人群密集场所行人个体社会行为影响下的群体运动行为,以及群体运动规则下的个体行为。在时间和空间维度上解析了行人逃生决策机理,分析了反应决策阶段和逃生运动阶段中,行人洞察危险并进行反应判断,做出逃生出口预决策,开始逃生运动,直至成功逃生的全过程。整个过程,行人的决策行为贯穿始末,差异化的个体特征、环境特征和决策能力形成了个性化的反应决策行为。基于行为决策机理分析,建立了人群密集场所行人个体逃生行为模型构架。模型构架由基于差异化个体特性的逃生时机决策模型、基于差异化个体认知的逃生出口选择偏好模型、基于差异化理性行为的动态疏散路径选择模型三阶段所构成。其中,第一阶段模型,分析了突发事件的态势演化和行人个体逃生选择阈值,建立了行人疏散时机与社会经济环境等影响因子间的量化模型。第二阶段模型基于对人群密集场所行人物理特征、认知特征和决策行为的调查,构建了行人出口选择与行人个体特征的间的量化方程,并对行人出口选择进行预测分析,模型主要反映了行人个体空间认知差异导致紧急情况下所能够选择的出口或逃生方向选择差异。第三阶段模型分析了突发事件下行人个体路径选择最大效用,效用函数主要考虑期望逃生时间、障碍物阻力、区域服务水平、行人个性化认知水平,基于行人异质性原则,通过个体认知的基础差异和逻辑规则差异达到最终的行为差异,形成最终的行人逃生路径选择。根据已建立的行人疏散行为模型体系,选择北京南站地下一层进行实证分析,采集了该区域的各出入口行人流量、瞬时区域人群密度、行人正常行进速度及行人步行路径等数据,假设突发事件发生位置,预测所有行人逃生时机和行人初始OD矩阵,并建立行人路径效用函数,基于建立的差异化动态路径选择模型对行人路径选择进行预测和模拟,仿真结果可信,模型能够为人群密集场所的设施布局、出入口设计、应急疏散提供技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the risk of panic and crowded stampede in public places has increased consistently,especially because of the fire,earthquakes and terrorist attacks.It is a hot problem that how to decrease or avoid casualties and property losses in emergency.The process of evacuation is the phenomenon of the interaction between individuals and groups.The lack of research on interaction mechanism and the individual behavior simulation is the main bottlenecks of crowd organization and evacuation analysis.Although many phenomenon and processes in the recognition and analysis of evacuation have made significant achievements,we found that the pedestrian’s behaviors often were ignored.The pedestrians were simulated as particles,so it was lack of study on relationship between individuals’ behavior and crowd evolution.It was less rarely involved of physical characteristics,cognitive characteristics and psychological characteristics in simulation.But these factors have important effect on pedestrian evacuation decision-making behavior based on Social psychology theory.Pedestrian organization and evacuation simulation are necessary way for safety assessment in crowded places,so,it is significative to study on the behavior of individuals and groups deeply,and to explore group evacuation model based on individuals’ differential behavior.Based on the survey of cognition and decision-making behavior,combined with psychology,behavioral science theory,we analyzed the socioeconomic factors of cognitive and psychological reaction,and revealed the crowd movement behavior under the influence of individuals’ social behavior,and the individuals’ behavior under the rule of crowd movement.We parsed the pedestrian evacuation decision-making mechanism in time and space dimensions.We also analyzed the response of decision-making and escape movement phase,from the pedestrian insight into danger and judging,to make an exit decision,began to escape,until the whole process of successful evacuation.Throughout the whole evacuation process,the pedestrian’s decision behavior takes place constantly.The differentiation of individuals’characteristics and environmental characteristics and the decision-making ability result in the personalized response decision-making behavior.Based on behavioral decision mechanism,we established a model framework of individual escape behavior in crowded places.The model framework was made of evacuation time decision-making model based on differentiation of rational behavior,individual cognitive exits preference model,and dynamic route choice model based on differentiation of rational behavior.In the first stage the model was based on differential rational behavior.It analyzed the evolution of emergency and the escpe choose threshold of individuals,and established the quantitative equations connecting the evacuation time and social impact factors.In the second stage,based on the survive of physical characteristics,cognitive characteristics and decision-making behavior,the quantitative equations between exits choice and individual characteristics was established,and finally the pedestrian’s exits choice was predicted.The individual choice differences of exits were described by the model based on individual spatial recognition in emergency.In the third stage,we build a utility function of individual route choice,which consided expected escape time,barrier resistance,regional service level,individualized cognitive level.Based on heterogeneity,different behavior resulted from the basis differences of individual cognitive and logical rules,and final escape routes were formed.Based on the established models,the ground floor of a Beijing south station was chosen to analyze the pedestrian behavior.We collected the flow,population density,individual speed,and path.The escape time and initial OD matrix were predicted.To apply the route choice model,we modelled the emergency in Beijing South station.Compared calculation with practice test,this paper puts forward the individual escape behavior modal which near the practice condition,right calculate formula and method and creditable test result.The models provide technical support for facility layout,design of entrances and exits and emergency evacuation.更多还原