【作者】 张一飞；

【导师】 徐莉；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 电网安全问题是一个关系到社会稳定和经济发展的世界共性问题,历来受到各国政府及相关电力企业的高度关注。随着我国电力需求的快速增长,我国电力系统已发展成为世界上电压等级最高、规模最大的交直流混合电网。一旦其遭到各种突发事件(包括稳定破坏、自然灾害及人为破坏等)的冲击,将可能引发大面积停电或电网解列,将给国民经济、人民生活甚至国家安全带来严重损害。为提高电力系统的可靠性,构建现代化的电网应急决策管理体系,进行科学的风险评估与危机预警,并制定相应的防范对策机制,将具有重要的理论意义与现实应用价值。长期以来,电网系统在传统的稳定分析及技术对策的基础上,已经开展了大量的风险评估与危机管理的研究,同时还引入了新兴的信息化分析技术与手段作为系统安全保障问题的补充。然而,近年来连续发生的各种电网系统危机事故表明,以往单纯侧重于技术层面的系统安全分析方式已经不能适应电网现代化的发展要求。现代化的电网危机管理,除了在继续完善现有各种技术分析方法的基础之上,更需要从实用化的角度建立更为完备的安全风险评估与应急处置体系,特别是建立政府与电力企业共同参与的风险与危机管理的决策机制,并将该机制置于相应的政策约束之下。因此,本文从政企联合的视角出发,致力于应对现代电网风险评估与应急的群决策过程体系与方法的研究。电网应急管理的核心是建立一套科学有效的决策体系。本文以群决策的一般理论体系为研究思路,从群决策的主体、对象、方法及方案四个方面构建了电网应急管理的群决策体系。主要研究内容及结论具体如下：1.电网应急管理群决策的主体--合作博弈下的政府与电网企业。传统的电网应急管理主体是技术手段为主导的单一电网企业,而在论文所构建的群决策体系下,电网应急管理的主体将是政府与企业的联合。从基础公共事业与能源安全的角度定性地分析了政府与电网企业合作开展电网安全工作的必要性。在此基础上,构建了政府与企业之间的理论博弈模型,并着重分析了政府与企业在电网风险管理中所关注目标的差异化问题,以及解决差异化实现博弈均衡的路径与建议。在深入剖析现有电网系统安全风险管理体系缺陷的基础上,构建了政企合作的电网风险与危机管理新体系,并比较分析了新体系较现存体系的优势。2.电网应急管理群决策的对象--电网危机源及风险指标。电网危机源分析以及风险评价指标构建是进行电网应急管理决策所要直接面向的问题。一方面考虑政企在电网应急管理过程中目标差异性,梳理与分析了电网的危机源,并进行了科学分类,基于危机源的分析,构建了政企联合的电网预警原则,介绍了相应的预警方法。另一方面,从指标构建原则、指标体系结构分析、指标数据的量化原则及指标数据来源等方面系统研究了基于政企联合视角的电网安全风险评估指标体系。3.电网应急管理群决策的方法--风险评价实现与危机预警应用。基于群决策的具体方法(包括证据理论、层次分析法、粗糙集理论等),从政企联合的视角实现对电网安全的风险具体评价以及危机预警的实际应用。首先在分析电网突发事件分级的要求、作用的基础上,构建了基于D-S证据理论的电网突发事件分级评价模型；其次,运用传统的层次分析法构建电网安全风险的评价模型,详述了评价的步骤及综合指标的计算过程；最后,研究了粗糙集理论在电网故障预警中的具体应用。4.电网应急管理群决策的方案--政企联合的应急预案设计。基于政企联合的电网应急管理的预案设计体现的是进行群决策的具体方案。以现存处置大面积停电的应急预案的介绍入手,分析了我国电网应急预案框架体系的建设情况以及编制情况,通过对比分析中美两国应急预案,提出了政企联合应急预案的新思路。基于此思路,从危机预防与准备、应用储备与反应、恢复重建等环节构建了政企联合的电网应急预案,并以电网冰灾恢复的抢修进行了具体模式的设计及应用分析。通过以上内容的研究,本文从主体、对象、方法及方案四个方面构建了基于政企联合视角的电网应急管理群决策体系,对于适应新时期电网发展的要求,构建现代化的电网应急管理体系,保障经济持续稳定发展与社会安定具有十分积极的指导与借鉴作用。当然,论文所构建群决策体系的各部分内容还需要进一步的细化与具体实践验证,这将成为后续研究工作的重点努力方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Owning to connecting with the social stability and economic development? grid security is a world-wide issue, which is highly attached importance to by all the governments as well as electric power enterprises. With the rapid growth of China’s electricity demand, China’s electric power system has developed to the largest AC and DC mixed power system with the highest voltage level in the world. Once it encounters any kinds of emergencies(including attack, natural disaster or man-made destruction, etc.), the impact will likely lead to serious incident of power failure even power systemcollapsing, which will dodamage to national economy, to people’s livesand even to national security. In order to improve the reliability of the electric power system, building a modern grid emergencymanagement system, carrying out a scientific risk assessment under the crisis early warning and making preventive measuresbecome particularly important andwill have far-reaching theoretical significance and practical value.In the past years, a lot of researches on risk assessment and crisis management based on the traditional grid system stability analysis and technical countermeasures have been carried out. Meanwhile, new informational technology as a means of analysis has been introduced as the supplement to grid system security. However, various incidents of grid system crisis which occurred in recent years show that the system-safety-analysis methods simply focusing on technical aspects have been unable to meet the development requirements of the grid modernization. Modern grid crisis management not only needs to improve the various existing methods based on technical analysis, but also needs to establish a more comprehensive security risk assessment and emergency response system from a practical aspect, in particular, to establish a decision-making mechanism under the corresponding policy constraints with governments and electric power enterprises jointly participating. Therefore, from the perspective of combination of governments and enterprises, this article aims at the modern grid research on risk assessment and group decision-making system process. The core of grid emergency management is to establish a scientific and effective decision-making system. Based on its general theory, the paper tries to build a grid emergency management system of group decision-making from four aspects, decision-making body, object, methods and solutions. The main content and conclusions are as follows:1. The body of group decision-making for grid emergency management: governments and electric power enterprises under cooperative game. The body of traditional grid emergency management is technically dominated by power enterprises, while the body of group decision-making system constructed in the paper will be a coalition of governments and enterprises. From the perspective of basic public utilities and energy security, the paper analyzes the necessity of the coalition between governments and electric power enterprises. On this basis, the paper constructs a theoretical model of the game between governments and enterprises, particularly analyzes the differences between governments and enterprises grid risk management, and proposes the resolutions and suggestions on how to achieve game equilibrium. Based on in-depth deficiencies analysis of the existing grid system security risk management system, the paper constructs a new system of risk management and crisis cooperation between governments and enterprises, and analyzes the advantages of the new system compared with the existing system.2The object of group decision-making for grid emergency management:the source of grid system crisis andthe risk indicators. The analysis on the source of grid system crisis and the risk indicator evaluation are critical and directly oriented for grid emergency management decisions. On the one hand, considering the targets differencesbetween governments and enterprises in grid emergency management process, the paper combs and analyzes the source grid crisis, does a scientific classification, constructs precautionary principles of the coalition betweengovernments and enterprises based on analysis and introduces the corresponding early warning methods. On the other hand, from the perspectives of the indicator construction principles, the structural analysis of instructor system, quantification principles of indicators data and the source of indicators data, the paper systematically studies the indicator’s system of grid security risk assessment under thecoalition between governments and enterprises.3. The methods of group decision-making for grid emergency management:risk assessment implementation and crisis warningapplication. Based on the specific methods of group decision making including evidence theory, AHP, rough set theory and etc, the paper achieves a joint assessment of the specific risks as well as the practical application of grid security crisis warning from the perspective of coalition between governments and enterprises. Firstly, the paper analyzes the requirements of graded scales for grid emergencies incidents and its impact, then constructs the grid emergencies grade evaluation model under the DS evidence theory. Secondly, the paper uses the traditional grid security risks AHP Evaluation Model to describe the evaluation steps and its calculation procedures. Finally, the paper analyzes the specific application under rough set theory in a grid failure warning.4. The solutions of group decision-making for grid emergency management: a precautionary design of coalition between governments and enterprises.The solution based on the grid emergency management ofcoalition between governments and enterprises is designed to reflect the specific program of group decision making. The paper, from the introduction on how to dispose of large area blackout, analyzes the construction of our country’s grid precautionary framework and the condition of compiling system, then proposes a new thought fordealing with the emergency combined government with enterprises through comparing Sino-Us emergencies precautionary solutions in grid crisis.Based on the idea, the paper constructs a coalition solution from the crisis prevention, preparedness, response and application of reserves, and other aspects of the restoration.In addition, the paper takes the ice disaster recovery of grid as the specific model to be illustrated.Through the study above, the paper, from the four aspects----body, object, methods and solutions, has constructed a new grid emergencies management system under the group decision-making of coalition between governments and enterprises, which has a very positive guidance and reference for grid development to meet the requirements of the new era in order to build a modern grid emergency management system and to guarantee steady economic development and social stability. Surely, various parts under group decision-making system constructed in the paper still needs further refinement and validation of specific practices, which will be the focus of my future’s research.更多还原