【作者】 李海成；

【导师】 索志林；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 作为发展中国家的农业大国,中国的农业发展和粮食安全,始终处于国家发展战略中的核心地位。然而中国农业特别是粮食生产,多年来一直受到水旱灾害的严重影响。近年来,全球变暖,极端气候事件频发,中国粮食生产面临的水旱灾害形势不容乐观。在农业水旱灾害风险管理方面,我国目前仍然存在防汛抗旱基础设施薄弱、灾害预测预警能力偏低、风险转移手段滞后及防灾减灾保障能力不足等诸多问题,严重影响着我国农业安全和粮食生产的可持续性发展。针对水旱灾害对粮食生产的影响及风险管理中的存在问题,本文以我国农业可持续发展为指导思想,以实现农业安全发展和粮食稳定增产为目标,进行了水旱灾害对粮食生产的影响及风险管理方面的研究,并在此基础上针对中国农业水旱灾害造成粮食减产的主要年份和主要地区进行识别,进而进行有效的灾害预测与预警分析,为我国各地区进行农业水旱灾害防治与管理提供了科学依据和有价值参考。本文的主要研究内容及结论如下:首先,对农业水旱灾害风险管理的相关概念和基础理论进行了系统概述。在此基础上,选取从1984年到2013年的最近30年期间来考察中国粮食生产和农业水旱灾害的变化情况。根据中国粮食总播种面积、粮食播种面积占农作物播种面积比重、年均播种面积、粮食产量、年均粮食产量、年均粮食单产等指标的变动考察中国粮食生产的演进情况。根据中国各地区年均粮食播种面积、年均粮食播种面积占全国粮食播种面积比重、年均粮食产量、年均粮食产量占全国粮食产量比重、粮食单产等指标的变动考察粮食生产的分布情况。根据中国和各地区30年农作物年均自然灾害受灾面积、年均自然灾害成灾面积、年均旱灾受灾面积、年均旱灾成灾面积、年均水灾受灾面积、年均水灾成灾面积、年均其它灾害受灾面积、年均其它灾害成灾面积等指标的变动来考察农业水旱灾害的演进情况。其次,进一步设计了粮食灾害减产率和粮食灾害减产量指标公式,从减产率和减产量两个方面分别设定了五个等级的农业水旱灾害粮食减产判断标准,并利用数据计算了中国和各地区30年间的粮食年均旱灾受灾率、粮食年均旱灾成灾率、粮食年均水灾受灾率、粮食年均水灾成灾率、粮食旱灾减产率、粮食旱灾减产量、粮食水灾减产率、粮食水灾减产量等指标的数值及其变动情况,以此反映农业水旱灾害的影响和造成的粮食减产情况。并依据农业水旱灾害判断标准,对中国农业水旱灾害造成粮食减产的主要年份和主要地区进行识别。再次,以受灾率、成灾率和减产率为研究对象,根据农业水旱灾害的近似马尔科夫性质和特点,以及农业水旱灾害序列的非对称性,构建了农业水旱灾害综合评价指数,并应用QAR和OLS模型对中国农业水旱灾害综合指数建立预测模型,科学运用波动系数分类方法将历年划分为不同警限区间,制定了相应的警戒线。通过实证分析结果可以得出三方面的政策启示,一是中国农业水旱灾害具有衰减性,一般情况下不需要对水旱灾害管理方式做出频繁调整,保持一个常态化、稳定性的管理机制。二是从低分位数水平到高分位数水平,中国农业水旱灾害对下一期的持续冲击越来越小,而随机影响会越来越大。三是中国农业水旱灾害从长期看是动态变化的,这种变化必然带来警戒线的变化,因此需要根据实际情况随时调整警戒线水平,以做到预警的准确性、有效性。希望以这种合理的预测结果为准度进行灾害的预测预警,为我国农业的防灾减灾提供更为科学合理的参考依据。最后,分析了我国农业水旱灾害风险管理的现状及存在问题,借鉴了国外发达国家农业水旱灾害风险管理的丰富经验,提出了中国应该从农业水旱灾害风险管理的工具体系建设、政府和农户的农业水旱灾害风险管理作用、农业水旱灾害风险管理的市场转移机制、农业水旱灾害风险管理运行保障机制等方面来探寻加强农业水旱灾害风险管理的相关对策,为我国农业安全和粮食生产的可持续性发展提供决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a developing agricultural country, China’s agricultural development and food security,has always been at the heart of national development strategies. However, China’s agriculture,especially grain production, has been seriously affected by flood and drought. In recent years,with the global warming, extreme weather events are more and more widely spread, China faces the severe situation of grain production. In Inundation and drought agricultural risk management,China still exists some deficiencies,such as infrastructure of flood control and drought relief is weak, method of risk-transfe, disaster forecast and early-warning capacity is low, and disaster protection capabilities is lackness,which seriously affects chinese sustainable development of agriculture and food production.Aiming at the problems that flood and drought disaster impact on food production and the risk management, The paper will be act China agricultural continued development as the guiding ideology, achieve agricultural security development and food stable yield as for target, for has flood and drought disaster on food production of effect and the risk management aspects of research, and this based Shang for China agricultural flood and drought disaster caused food production of main year and main area for recognition, then for effective of disaster forecast and warning analysis, For the area of agricultural flood and drought disaster prevention and management to provide a scientific basis and a valuable reference.Main content and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly, Risk management of flood and drought disasters in agriculture-related concepts and overview of the basic theory system. On this basis, selected during the last 30 years from 1984 until 2013 to examine China’s grain production and the variation of flood and drought disasters in agriculture. According to China’s total grain acreage, the area sown to grain crops sown areas of specific gravity, average annual acreage, food production, average annual grain output,changes in indicators such as average annual grain yield per unit area examine the evolution of China’s grain production. According to the regional average in China the area sown to grain,annual grain crops accounted for, the annual national Commissariat of food production, average annual grain output accounts for food production share, and changes in indicators such as grain yield per unit area examine the distributions of food production. According to the various regions of China and 30 crops annually, average annual natural disasters natural disasters disaster area inundated area, annual average drought disaster in drought-affected areas, the average annual area, average annual flood disaster area, annual floods inundated area, the average annual disaster affected area, annual changes in other indicators such as disaster areas tostudy the evolution of flood and drought disasters in agriculture.Secondly, further design has food disaster production rate and food disaster production volume index formula, from production rate and reduction production two a aspects respectively set has five a grade of agricultural flood and drought disaster food production judge standard,and using data calculation has China and regions 30 between of food annual drought affected rate, and food annual drought disaster rate, and food annual flood affected rate, and food annual flood disaster rate, and food drought production rate, and food drought reduction production,and food flood production rate, and Flood food production volume index values and their changes over time, to reflect the effects of flood and drought disasters in agriculture and food production caused by. And according to the standard of judgment for flood and drought disasters in agriculture and grain production of agricultural flood and drought disasters in China mainly year and major areas to be identified.Thirdly, to affected rate, and disaster rate and production rate for research object, according to agricultural flood and drought disaster of approximate Markov nature and features, and agricultural flood and drought disaster sequence of non-symmetric, building has agricultural flood and drought disaster integrated evaluation index, and application QAR and OLS model on China agricultural flood and drought disaster integrated index established forecast model,science using fluctuations coefficient classification method will over divided for different police limited interval, developed has corresponding of cordon. Through empirical analyses three aspects of policy implications can be drawn, is China’s flood and drought disasters in agriculture with decay, typically do not need to make frequent adjustments to management of flood and drought, keep a normal, stable management mechanism. Second level from low to high percentile level, China’s sustainable agriculture for the next phase of flood and drought impact smaller, random effects is growing. Third, agricultural flood and drought disasters in China over the long term are dynamic, this brings the line changes, you need to adjust the warning levels according to the actual situation in order to achieve accuracy, validity of the warning. Want to reasonably predict the result of disaster forecast and early warning, for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation in China to provide more scientific and rational basis.Finnally, analysis has China agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of status and the exists problem, reference has abroad developed agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of rich experience, proposed has China should from agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of tool system construction, and Government and farmers of agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management role, and agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of market transfer mechanism, and agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management run guarantees mechanism, aspects to explore strengthening agricultural flood and drought disaster risk management of related countermeasures, For agriculture safety and provide decision support for the sustainable development of food production.更多还原