【作者】 吴迪；

【导师】 潘石；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 制度经济学， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,经济金融全球化步伐不断加快。2015年是中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的第15年。期间,中国积极参与经济金融全球化进程,不断扩大经济金融开放程度,涉外经济取得了长足发展。同时,中国的国内市场受国际形势影响越来越大,中国的实体经济和金融市场的风险防范能力面临更大的挑战。在国际经济金融日益融合、中国深入推进经济金融体制改革和促进要素市场化进程中,中国的汇率制度选择已经超出了本国制度的辐射范围,它不仅影响本国涉外经济的健康发展,同时与贸易和投资伙伴国的经济利益紧密相连。如今,国内外市场对中国汇率制度提出了更高的要求,中国汇率制度改革势在必行。中国汇率制度选择是中国经济金融发展的重要组成部分。它不仅是制度内容的创新与变动,更应该是制度本身的变迁与革新。本文用新制度经济学理论和方法对中国汇率制度问题进行系统性地阐述与分析,通过运用交易费用、产权原理、制度变迁和制度供求等原理对汇率制度的本质、市场结构、变迁规律问题进行深刻解读和剖析,探讨中国汇率制度的改革目标与对策选择。具体内容如下:第一章:引言。本章介绍了整篇论文的研究背景、研究意义、主要内容、研究方法以及创新和不足,对中国汇率问题的研究前沿以及基于新制度经济学的中国汇率问题研究进行了综述。第二章:汇率问题的制度经济学理论基础研究。本章是整篇论文的理论研究基础。以历史发展为序,梳理了包括马克思主义和西方经济学的汇率制度理论研究。以新制度经济学视角界定中国汇率制度相关概念,分析了汇率制度起源问题。通过交易费用范式研究了汇率制度交易费用测量的两个层次,论述了汇率制度内生、外生的交易费用含义与关系。从产权模型入手,分别分析了原始产权理论与国家产权理论在汇率制度理论研究中存在的形式与含义。第三章:中国汇率制度变迁的制度经济学研究。本章梳理了中国汇率制度的变迁过程。从新制度经济学角度出发,分析中国汇率制度变迁的动因。同时指出路径依赖、创新成本、时滞效应以及有限的认知范围等是制度变迁的制约因素。将中国汇率制度变迁归为“强制性制度变迁+渐进式制度变迁”模式。对中国汇率制度变迁过程中的交易费用进行测量得出:随着人民币汇率弹性不断增大,市场型交易费用比重逐渐上升;随着货币当局的简政放权,政策性和管理型交易费用比重逐渐下降。第四章:中国汇率制度的根本性问题研究——基于制度的供求分析。本章从分析市场开始,研究制度市场与制度市场中的制度供求关系,明确中国汇率制度是政府起决定作用的供给主导型制度安排。通过不同市场主体分析中国汇率制度中利益权衡与博弈行为。然后从制度均衡理论出发深入分析中国汇率市场化改革与汇率制度供求关系的发展问题,指出中国汇率供求非均衡与供给主导型的必然性,分析供给主导型的优势与不足。以实现汇率市场化和制度供求均衡为目标,建议要逐步实现供给主导型与需求主导型融合交替以及关注多元利益集团的博弈行为对政策制定和实施的影响作用。第五章:汇率制度的比较与借鉴。本章从新制度经济学视角出发,对不同发展阶段的不同国家的汇率制度选择及演进进行了分析和比较。从制度借鉴角度总结汇率制度选择的共性与规律。最后结合中国现阶段国情得出三点启示:一是交易成本的不可忽视性;二是制度变迁时机选择重要性;三是战略发展目标的必要性。第六章:中国汇率制度改革的目标设计与对策选择。本章论述了中国建立具有中国特色的多目标人民币汇率制度的必要性。构建中国特色的人民币汇率制度目标,将其分为两个方面:横向目标和纵向目标。其中,横向目标是指中国汇率制度建立的目标,即汇率制度在一段时期内服务国家宏观经济主要指标合理变化的初衷。纵向目标是指在国家长期的发展过程中,汇率制度自身应实现的各阶段的发展目标,分为短期目标和长期目标。最后针对不同目标设计,提出相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, economic and financial globalization has been making the rapid development. China’s accession into the World Trade Organization(WTO) for 15 years. In this period of time, China actively participated in the process of economy and financial globalization and continued to expand the degree of openness. Chinese foreign economy has developed successfully. At the same time, the international situation has increasingly influenced on the domestic market. The entity economy and the risk prevention capacity of financial market of China are facing a greater challenge. The international economic and financial becomes increasingly merged each other. Meanwhile China advances the reform of elements marketization. The exchange rate system of China influences both the domestic and foreign markets. The domestic and foreign markets have put forward higher requirements on the exchange rate system of China. Therefore, the reform of exchange rate system of China is imperative.The choice of exchange rate system of China is an important part of Chinese economic and financial development. It is not only the change of the contents of the system, but also the innovation of the system itself. The new institutional economics theory and method were used in this paper to describe and analysis systematically the issue of Chinese exchange rate system. A profound interpretation and analysis on the nature of the exchange rate system, market structure and the change rules are made by using the transaction cost, property right theory, institutional change and institutional supply and demand principle, and to research the objectives of the reform of exchange rate system and countermeasure choice related suggestions. Specific content as follows:The first chapter: introduction. This chapter introduced the background, significance, main contents, research methods, as well as the innovation and the insufficiency of the whole paper. The frontier research of exchange rate system of China and some research based on new institutional economics research are reviewed.The second chapter: the basic research of exchange rate issue on institutional economics theory. This chapter which is the basis of the whole paper combed the research theory of exchange rate system including the Marx doctrine and the western economics and based on the historical development sequence and defined the relevant concept of Chinese exchange rate system and analyzed the problem of the origin of exchange rate system in the view of new institutional economics. The research was made on two level measuring system of exchange rate of transaction costs through the transaction cost paradigm and on the theory of property rights through the property model.The third chapter: the research on the changes of exchange rate system of China. This chapter combed the change process of Chinese exchange rate system and studied the causes of the regime transition. It is also pointed out that the path dependence, the cost of innovation, the time lag effect and the limited cognitive scope are restricting factors of institutional change. The changes of Chinese exchange rate system are classified into compulsory and gradual institutional change mode. The measurement was made on the transaction costs during the transition process of Chinese exchange rate regime.The fourth chapter: the fundamental research on the problem of China exchange rate system-- based on the analysis of the supply and demand system. This chapter studied the relationship between institutional demand and supply and clearly pointed out that exchange rate system of China is the supply oriented institutional arrangement. It is analyzed on the benefits balance and game behavior. Meanwhile it is studied the relationship between the exchange rate marketization and the supply and demand of the exchange rate system.The fifth chapter: comparison and reference to the rate of exchange system. The choices of exchange rate system and the evolutions of the different development stages and different countries are analyzed and compared in this chapter. Summarize the commonness and rules of the choice of exchange rate system. Finally, three enlightenments were obtained: transaction costs cannot be ignored; institutional change should choose the suitable time; long-term reform strategy is needed.The sixth chapter: the target design and countermeasure choice of exchange rate system reform of the China. This chapter discussed the necessity of establishing the multiple objectives of RMB exchange rate system which has the characteristics of China. It is divided into two targets: The transverse target and longitudinal target. Transverse target is the reason why Chinese exchange rate system was established. The longitudinal targets are the targets of the exchange rate system itself in each stage which divided into short-term goals and long-term goals. Finally, relevant policy suggestions are made according to the different goals.更多还原