【作者】 杜晓华；

【导师】 杨惠昶；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 金融学， 2016， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国金融体制改革和金融市场化改革的深入推进,我国金融结构发生重大变化。近年来,我国新型金融机构不断涌现,金融市场多元化发展,金融产品和融资工具不断创新。银行作为社会融资主渠道的作用逐渐下降,直接融资在社会融资规模中的比重持续上升,其他金融机构在社会融资中发挥的作用日益显现。随之而来,我国以广义货币M2和新增人民币贷款为中间目标的货币政策调控面临着巨大挑战。社会融资规模是人民银行创新性地提出的衡量我国实体经济从金融体系获得资金总额的指标,见于官方文件时间较短,因此学者在全面研究我国社会融资方面的文献相对较少。社会融资规模指标数据的公布为社会融资的研究提供了数据支持。本文的创新之处在于:一是以马克思的货币流通理论为基础,分析社会融资的供给与需求,提出了社会融资传导过程中的六个步骤,揭示了社会融资对实体经济的作用机理。二是依据马克思关于信用具有生产力的理论,论证社会融资具有生产力,推动贸易、投资、消费增加,生产规模扩大。三是尝试建立社会融资供给与需求的数量模型,并在此基础上建立社会融资均衡条件下的经济增长与相关变量的数量关系,分析社会融资不均衡的原因。本文按照“提出问题——分析问题——解决问题”的思路展开。提出问题:在对相关理论与文献进行梳理后,本文提出研究的主题是社会融资资金在传导过程中对经济增长的作用。分析问题:首先,按照参与主体、所属市场和领域的不同,将社会融资资金的流动过程划分为社会融资的供给和社会融资的需求两部分。其次,从社会融资供给和需求两方面进行分析。对社会融资的供给分析主要对我国社会融资供给的基本原理、社会融资的供给主体、供给渠道和影响融资供给的因素等问题进行分析,并构建社会融资供给的数学模型进行实证分析。对社会融资的需求分析主要对我国社会融资需求的基本原理、社会融资的需求主体和融资方式等问题进行分析,并构建社会融资需求的数学模型进行实证分析。然后,在社会融资供给与需求分析的基础上,进行社会融资均衡分析和社会融资对经济增长作用的理论分析。理论分析表明社会融资是生产力,社会融资对经济增长有促进作用,社会融资规模的各个组成都能直接或间接的促进经济增长。最后,通过实证分析方法,分析我国社会融资对经济增长的作用。结论表明,社会融资规模在短时间内的增多,将最终会使经济增长水平实现长期稳定的提升。在对社会融资均衡条件下经济增长的定量分析中,分析了导致我国社会融资不均衡的原因。通过分析可知,我国社会融资在促进经济增长过程中存在以下问题。首先,社会融资的供给与需求分析表明社会融资的供给与需求对利率变动的反应非常敏感。通过社会融资均衡条件下的经济增长的定量分析,可以发现利率作为资金的价格,在社会融资过程中缺乏定价权,一定程度上导致社会融资的不均衡。其次,在社会融资供给和社会融资均衡分析中都能看出,我国资本市场发展缓慢,直接融资不足。再次,从社会融资对经济增长的作用分析中可以看出,社会融资对经济增长有促进作用,但是从社会融资的统计口径可以看出社会融资统计信息还存在缺口,这会降低货币当局执行货币政策的效果,对经济的促进作用也会大打折扣。然后,社会融资的需求分析、均衡分析以及社会融资均衡条件下的经济增长的定量分析,都表明我国实体经济存在融资难题,社会融资对实体经济的支持还未充分发挥。最后,从均衡条件下经济增长的定量分析可以看出,货币政策不能一直有效地调节社会融资的不均衡,社会融资规模的可控性有待进一步提高。此外,金融统计信息缺口的存在也表明金融监管可能存在一定的漏洞。解决问题:针对以上问题,本文提出关于提高社会融资规模监测水平、促进直接融资快速增长、强化金融对实体经济支持和提高金融监管水平等方面的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the reform of the financial system and financial marketization in China, the financial structure of China has changed greatly. In recent years, China’s new financial institutions continue to emerge, the financial market diversification, financial products and financing tools continue to innovate. As the main channel of financing, the effect of the bank is gradually declining, the proportion of direct financing in aggregate financing to the real economy continues to rise, and other financial institutions play a more and more important role in financing. Subsequently, China is facing a great challenge to the monetary policy adjustment for using the generalized money M2 and the new added RMB loans yearly as the intermediate target. The aggregate financing to the real economy is presented innovatively by the People’s Bank of China as an important indicator that measures the real economy obtaining the total amount of funds from the financial system. The indicator appears in official documents recently, comprehensive study is relatively less. The indicator’s data is published that providing the data support for the research of aggregate financing to the real economy.The innovations of this paper lie in: the first, based on Marx’s currency circulation theory, analyzing the aggregate financing supply and demand to the real economy, proposing the conduction process of aggregate financing to the real economy, which including six steps, then revealing the mechanism of aggregate financing to the real economy. The second, based on Marx’s theory that credit is productive force, proving the aggregate financing to the real economy is also productive force, which promoting trade, investment and consumption, enlarging the scale of production. The third, trying to establish quantitative models of aggregate financing supply and demand, and then establishing the quantitative relationship among the economic growth and related variables under the equilibrium condition of aggregate financing to the real economy, based on which to analyze causes of unequilibrium.The paper is expounded with the thoughts of ―putting forward-analyzing-solving the problems‖.Putting forward questions: after teasing the domestic and foreign relevant theories and literatures, this paper puts forward the theme of research is that the effect of aggregate financing funds to the real economy in the process of economic growth.Analysis the problems: firstly, according to the different participants, markets and areas, the funds flow process can be divided into two parts of the aggregate financing supply and aggregate financing demand. Secondly, the analysis of aggregate financing supply to the real economy mainly analyzes basic principles, subjects, channels of financing supply and factors that affect the financing supply, and then carries on empirical analysis by building a mathematical model of financing supply. The analysis of aggregate financing demand for the real economy mainly analyzes basic principles, subjects and modes of financing demand, and then carries on empirical analysis by building a mathematical model of financing demand. Thirdly, based on the analysis of aggregate financing supply and demand, this paper makes the equilibrium analysis of aggregate financing to the real economy and theoretical analysis on effect of aggregate financing to the real economy on economic growth. Theoretical analysis shows that the aggregate financing to the real economy is productive force, which has a promoting effect on economic growth. Each constituent of aggregate financing to the real economy can directly and indirectly promote economic growth. Lastly, through empirical analysis, this paper analyzes the effect of aggregate financing to the real economy on economic growth. The conclusion shows that the increase of aggregate financing to real economy in a short time would eventually enable economic growth level to improve stably in long-term. This paper analyzes the reasons that causing financing unequilibrium in recent years in China by making quantitative analysis of the economic growth under the financing equilibrium condition.Through the analysis, the paper shows that there are following problems in the process of aggregate financing to the real economy promoting economic growth in China. First of all, the analysis of the aggregate financing supply and aggregate financing demand shows that the supply and demand are very sensitive to the change of interest rate. Through the quantitative analysis of the economic growth under the financing equilibrium condition, it can be found that as the price of the fund, the interest rate does not have enough pricing power in the process of financing, leading to the unequilibrium of aggregate financing supply and demand to a certain extent. Secondly, the analysis of financing supply and financing equilibrium shows that the development of capital market is slow and the direct financing is insufficient in China. Again, from the analysis on effect of aggregate financing to the real economy on economic growth, it can be seen that the aggregate financing to the real economy has a promoting effect on economic growth. But from the financing statistics scope, it can be seen that the statistical index exists gaps, which will reduce the effect of monetary policy implemented by monetary authorities and the role of promoting economic growth will be greatly reduced. Then the analysis of aggregate financing demand, financing equilibrium and quantitative analysis of the economic growth under the financing equilibrium condition show that there are financing difficulties in the real economy in China, the support role of aggregate financing to the real economy has not been fully played. Finally, from quantitative analysis of the economic growth under the financing equilibrium condition, it can seen that the monetary policy can not effectively regulation financing unequilibrium all the time, which indicates that the need to further improve controllability of the aggregate financing to the real economy. In addition, financial statistics information gap also indicates that there may be some loopholes in financial regulation.Solving the problems: base on above analysis, this paper gives the practical policy suggestions about improving the level of monitoring aggregate financing to the real economy, promoting quickly growth of direct financing, strengthening financial support for the real economy and improving the level of financial supervision.更多还原