【作者】 冒刘燕；

【导师】 成虎；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 工程管理， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 随着大规模建设项目的逐步完成,设施维护管理研究已经成为工程管理领域研究的热点问题之一。船闸作为大宗货物水路运输通道上的关键基础设施,科学的维护管理对系统正常运行、保障航道畅通和促进国民经济发展具有重要意义。在设施维修决策研究中,寿命过程的维修信息越来越受到重视,然而船闸维修信息中隐含的系统可靠性规律尚未被挖掘和利用。论文立足于工程全寿命周期,应用复杂系统可靠性理论和维修决策理论,以维修事件数据为基础,借鉴制造业可靠性分析的思路和方法,研究了船闸寿命过程的可靠性特征和维修管理决策。研究的主要内容包括：(1)基础理论与研究架构。梳理了全寿命周期管理理论、复杂系统可靠性理论和维修决策理论,分析了工程全寿命周期管理的核心任务,提出了船闸全寿命周期可靠性分析和维修管理决策研究的总体框架。(2)构建了船闸维修信息集成的霍尔三维结构模型。建立了船闸工程系统分解结构(WLEBS),从时间维、结构维和信息维,构建了船闸维修信息集成的霍尔三维结构模型,解决了“维修信息孤岛”和可靠性分析数据瓶颈的问题。(3)构建了基于事件数据的船闸可靠性分析(RABED)模型,并用17座船闸的历史维修数据验证了模型的实用性。论文突破了可靠性理论在土木工程领域的具体应用,从复杂系统广义可靠性的视角定义了船闸系统可靠性指标,设计了RABED流程,研究了RABED模型可靠性参数估计方法,利用故障模式、影响和危害度分析(FMECA)方法和寿命分布模型,深入分析了船闸部件、子系统和系统的可靠性,通过实证研究得到了繁忙河段船闸的可靠性特征,为维修信息的利用提供了一套系统的解决方法,对其他设施寿命周期维修管理亦具有借鉴作用。(4)揭示了船闸寿命周期维修决策变量相互关系的规律性。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析得到年中修费用与大修费用、中修部位数量正相关,与年运营能力指标负相关；中修发生时间与大修费用负相关,与年运营能力指标正相关。船闸寿命过程中大修、中修与运营能力之间这一关系,类似于人的健康与其劳动能力之间的关系,具有合理的经济学解释,符合实际情况。(5)构建了船闸寿命周期维修决策框架和优化模型,并通过实例验证了它们在船闸寿命周期管理中的科学性。论文系统研究了船闸维修决策的影响因素,构建了完整的维修决策分析程序；从预期成本与使用性能两个角度,建立了船闸寿命周期维修决策指标体系；综合不同的维修模式,以及维修事件发生时间和维修占用时间等因素的随机性,构建了船闸系统的蒙特卡罗动态可靠性仿真模型,以繁忙河段单线船闸的维修结构优化为例,解释了维修决策框架和优化模型在船闸寿命周期管理中的具体应用。论文的研究对于拓展复杂系统可靠性理论的应用领域,进一步完善工程全寿命周期管理理论,深入地把握船闸系统的可靠性特征,为管理部门在多变的环境条件下进行科学合理的维修决策,实现船闸全寿命周期管理目标,具有十分重要的理论与实践意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the gradual completion of large-scale construction projects, facilities maintenance management has become a hot topic in the field of engineering management. Lock is the key infrastructure of the waterway transport corridors of bulk cargo, scientific maintenance management is very important for the normal operation of the system and the clear of the waterway channel, and it is also very important for the the nation’s economic growth. In the research of facility maintenance decision-making, the maintenance information of the facilities’life process has been paid more and more attention. However, the health rule hidden in the maintenance information of the waterway lock is still not excavated and utilized. Based on the engineering life cycle, the complex system reliability theory and the maintenance decision-making theory are used, on the foundation of the repair event datas during the waterway lock life process, the ideas and methods of manufacturing reliability analysis is learned to study the reliability characteristic and maintenance managemet optimization of waterway lock life cycle.The main research contents include:(1) The basic theory and research framework. Based on the analysis of life cycle management theory, complex system reliability theory and maintenance decision-making theory, the main issuse of life cycle management is concluded, andthe basic model is constructed to disscuss the waterway lock life cycle reliability characteristic and maintenance management decision-making through learningthe ideas and methods fromthe products’ rebiliality and maintenance decision.(2) The construction of Hall three-dimension structure model for integrating maintenance information of waterway lock. Waterway lock engineering breakdown structure (WLEBS) is built. The Hall three-dimensional structure model for integrating maintenance information of waterway lock is developed from time dimension, structure dimension and information dimension. These make the waterway lock life cycle information comparability and utility. The problems of ’maintenance information isolated island" and the bottlenecks of reliability analysis datas are solved.(3) Developed the waterway lock reliability analysis model based on event datas(RABED), andverified the usefulness of the model by 17 locks maintenance record datas. Many literatures discussed the importance of the maintenance information in facilities life cycle management, but they didn’t study how to use the information systematic.Reliability theory application in the field of civil engineering has been broken, and it is taken from the perspective of generalized reliability of complex systems in the dissertation.Waterwaylock system reliability indexs have been defined, the process for RABED has been designed, and how to estimate the reliability paramenters is discussed. The reliability for componenrs, subsystems and the whole lock system has been studied thoroughly byusing failure model, effects and criticality analysis(FMECA) and lifetime distribution model. The empirical research has been done through real datas. Though the empirical study, RABED model has been verified practicability and some signfincant conclusions have been obtained. From the empirical results, we have been found reliability rules of locks in busy rivers. As a conclusion, RABED model can give systemtic solutions for maintenance information usage, and it can also refer to other facilities life cycle maintenance management.(4) The rules of relationshipbetween maintenance decision variables for waterway lock life cycle is decuced.Multiple linear regression analysis is adapted to probe the relationship between waterway lock overhaul, maintenance and anaual operational capabilities. Quantitative analysis results indicate that anaual maintenance costs is positively correlated to overhaul cost and maintenance units, and it is negatively correlated to anaual operation ablity indexs; the time between maintenance is is negatively correlated to overhaul cost, and it is positively correlated to anaual operation ablity indexs. The regression analysis results are similar to the relationship between huamans’ health and labor ability. It has a reseaonable and realistic economic explanation.(5) Established life cycle maintenance decision framework and optimization model for waterway lock, and its sciefitic verified by a case study. Lock maintenance decision influce affects have been studied compressively, and a fully maintenance decision analysis produre is built. Life cycle maintenance decision-making indexs is set up from the expect costs and the waterway lock performance.Different maintenance modelsis Combined and random factors of repair events occurance and repair time are considered, Monte Carlo dynamic reliability simulation model for waterway lock is developed, and lock life cycle maintenance optimization is further dissussed. Maintenance optimization of sigle lock in busy rivers as anexample is given to explain how to use the proposel framework and model in waterway lock life cycle management.The conclusion of the dissertation expands the complex systems theory application fields, and furtherly improves engineering life cycle management theory. The research results contribute to administrative department making scientific and reasonable maintenance decision under the changing environments. Also, it has a very important theoretical and practical significance on achieving the life cycle management goals of waterway lock.更多还原