【作者】 唐惠燕；

【导师】 包平；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 科学技术史， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 江苏地处长江三角洲,气候属于暖温带向亚热带过渡地区,兼具南北农业的种植特点,历史形成苏南、苏中、苏北三个区域差异明显的地区。1949年以来,江苏农业发展跨越了计划经济和市场经济各30年左右两个完全不同体制的时期,经济发展经历整体不太发达到部分地区快速发展、部分地区发展较慢这样区域不平衡的过程,时间跨度长,空间差异性大,伴随着经济的不断发展农业种植业也发生了显著变化。本文基于1949-2011共63年与江苏省农业种植相关的大量数据,借助地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析工具,在可视化展示主要农作物不同时期播种面积和产量的空间分布和重心迁移的基础上,研究新中国成立以来江苏农业种植结构的演变特点和驱动因素,为江苏或其他地区农业宏观发展提供参考,也为新型信息工具GIS在农业历史领域的研究供实证。1、确定统一的数据采集规范,建立基于GIS农业种植信息专题数据库。以2011年江苏行政区划为依据,按照地级市和县域归属为基本单元进行数据收集和整理规范,形成1949-2011共63年13个地级市75个县域单元与农作物种植相关的数据集,基于GIS建立江苏省农业种植信息专题数据库,经过规范的数据量达20万个。2、基于宏观层面的农业重大政策调整和微观层面的种植多样性指数变化,对江苏农业种植结构进行历史分期。江苏在1949-2011年间,农业种植结构整体以水稻、小麦等粮食作物为主,棉花、油菜、大豆等经济作物和油料作物为辅。近30年,由于食物消费的改变,蔬菜、瓜果类作物种植面积不断增加。63年间通过政策宏观调控和市场经济的引导,农业生产虽然基本满足了人类生活需要,但作为农业生态系统的作物多样性指数整体则呈下降趋势。3、基于GIS可视化展示江苏主要农作物种植面积和产量的空间分布,显示自给自足的农业种植格局逐渐向区域化特色化方向发展。水稻、小麦、油菜、棉花、蔬菜等5种作物GIS空间分布组图显示出63年间各种作物不一样的空间变化特征,显示出自给自足的农业种植格局逐渐打破,区域化特色化种植模式逐渐形成。以水稻为例,水稻GIS组图显示江苏水稻种植呈现两个阶段性区域性转移,由以南方地区为主逐渐向全省性种植转移,市场经济的发展又导致水稻种植向北方地区转移。主要农作物在政策宏观调控和市场经济的引导下逐渐形成区域化特色化的种植特点。4、基于GIS可视化展示江苏主要农作物播种面积和总产量空间重心的演变轨迹,显示出苏北地区已经成为江苏的农业重心。在定量计算各个时段空间重心的基础上,根据精确的地理坐标基于GIS可视化展示水稻、小麦、棉花、油菜、蔬菜等作物播种面积和总产量的演变轨迹。以水稻为例,播种面积63年间空间重心的迁移轨迹为：镇江扬中市三茅镇扬子东路——扬州江都市十三圩——老圩—五圩——邓家庄——秦庄—横桥——高邮市萧家庄——郑家——陈西——黎家厦——宝应县周庄——任庄。所有作物均显示整体向北迁移的演变轨迹,表明苏北地区已经成为江苏的农业重心。5、探讨江苏主要农作物种植结构演变与人口、经济、政策、科技和环境相关因素的相互关系,运用相关性计量研究了农作物种植与人口和经济之间的关联程度。人口的高增长是水稻、小麦等粮食作物种植驱动的最重要因素。对1949-2011年江苏粮食、油料等总产量与江苏总人口数进行相关性分析。结果表明,江苏总人口数与江苏粮食总产量、油料总产量呈0.01水平极显著相关,相关系数为0.933、0.875,显示粮食作物和油料作物与人口的增长关系密切。经济发展的不平衡或差异是形成各种作物空间重心区域性变迁的重要原因,当经济发展到一定程度时,对农业在三产中的结构和地位会产生影响。对1952-2011年苏南、苏中、苏北各地区GDP与水稻总产量进行相关性分析,结果显示苏南地区GDP与水稻总产量呈0.01水平显著负相关,相关系数为-0.506,而苏北地区和苏中地区GDP与水稻总产量呈0.01水平显著正相关,相关系数为0.692,0.550。农业政策因素对江苏种植结构格局变化影响很大,显示出政策的强大调控力量,但对不同收入地区促进存在差异,体现在对苏北、低收入地区的促进作用较强,对苏南、相对高收入地区的促进作用较弱。另外耕地资源的短缺决定了农业总产的提高主要依靠作物单产水平的提高,而环境因素和科技进步是影响作物单产增长的主要因素。人口的压力导致农业生态系统多样性指数整体呈下降的趋势,只有降低人口总量,减少对土地的需求,才能真正形成多样性的农业种植系统。实证研究表明：GIS空间分析工具,为拥有大量的、历时较长的、可靠的历史数据进行动态可视化研究,提供了一种方法的选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 Located in the delta of Yangtze River, climate of Jiangsu is in a transitional zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate regions. Combined with south and north planting characteristics, south Jiangsu, central Jiangsu region and North Jiangsu region were shaped in obvious contrast. Since 1949, Jiangsu’s agricultural development has spanned quite different periods, from planned economy to marketing economy. Economic development has experienced a progress from overall underdevelopment to regional imbalances with a long time span and diverse spatial differentiation. With the increasing development of economy, agriculture and crop production have dramatic changes accordingly. Relying on GIS spatial analysis system, the dissertation explored the evolution characteristics and driving factors of Jiangsu agricultural crop structures since the People’s Republic of China founded based on large number of statistics concerning with Jiangsu agriculture and crops between 1949-2011, and offered references regarding to agricultural macro-development for Jiangsu and other areas as well as present empirical results for GIS research in the field of agricultural history.1. Lay down a unified standard for statistics collection and establish a database on the basis of GIS agricultural thematic information.In terms of Jiangsu administrative division in 2011, taking prefecture -level city and counties under the jurisdiction as the basic unit, data sets are established based on 13 cities and 75 prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu. Established on the basis of GIS, the number of thematic databases regarding to Jiangsu agricultural planting information are up to 0.2 million.2. Jiangsu agricultural planting structures are divided into different phrases based on agricultural major policies adjustment on macro level and planting diversity index variation on micro level.During the period of 1949-2011, when it refers to agricultural planting structure, grains like rice, wheat were taken as staples while cottons, rapes and soybeans were regarded as complement dairy food. In recent 30 years, food consumption upgrade is a reason for the continually increased cultivated area of vegetables and fruits. Agricultural production basically met human being’s demands on livelihood through macro monetary policies adjusting control and marketing economy guidance in 63 years, but agricultural production generally declined when it is regarded as planting diversity index of agricultural ecological system.3.Self-sufficient agricultural planting structure is gradually featured with regionalization and characteristic with the help of GIS, showing major crops’planting area and spatial distribution of crop yields.GIS spatial distribution maps of rice, wheat, rapes, cotton, and vegetables show the different spatial variation characteristics of various crops during the past 63 years. The self-sufficient agricultural pattern is gradually broken and the planting pattern featured with regionalization and characteristic is gradually formed. Taking rice as an example, GIS spatial distribution maps of rice show that rice planting of Jiangsu has two phases of regional shifts. One is a shift of planting area from south to the whole province; the other is that the development of market economy has led rice planting area towards north. Major crops are gradually developing towards regionalization and characteristic under the macroscopical control of policy and the guidance of marketing economy.4.To display the space gravity center’s development traces of major crops’ sown area and total output of Jiangsu province by GIS and the result shows that North Jiangsu has become the agricultural center of gravity of Jiangsu province.Based on the quantitative calculation of the space gravity center of each time, and according to the precise geographical coordinates, this research displays the development traces of major crops’ sown area and total output by GIS. The major crops include rice, wheat, rapes, cottons and vegetables. Taking rice as an example, during the past 63years, the space gravity center’s development trace of rice sown area is from Yangtze East Road of Sanmao town in Yangzhong city of Zhenjiang to Shisanwei in Jiangdu city of Yangzhou to Laowei to Wuwei to Dengjiazhuang toQianzhuang to Hengqiao to Xiaojiazhuang in Gaoyou city to Zhengjia to Chenxi to Lijiasha to Zhouzhuang in Baoying country to Renzhuang. The space gravity center’s development traces of all crops show the same trend, that is they all migrates northward, and this shows that North Jiangsu has become the agricultural center of gravity of Jiangsu province.5. Discuss the correlation between major crops planting structure of Jiangsu and population, economy, policies, science and technology and study, and environment on the correlation degree between crops-planting and economy by means of correlation measurement.The major factor of boosting crops planting is closely tied to high increase rate of population and economy. Correlation measurements are used on analyzing the total number of grain and oil as well as population, the result of which shows the total number of population, grain and oil are significantly correlated at the level of 0.01. And its correlation coefficents are 0.933 and 0.875.Imbalances or diversity of economic development are main reasons for various crops spatial gravity shifts. The status of agriculture in tertiary is a result of social economic development. Correlation analysis of GDP and rice yields in South Jiangsu, central Jiangsu and North Jiangsu from 1952-2011 shows that GDP of south Jiangsu and rice yields appear in an obvious negative correlation at the level of 0.01 and its coefficient of correlation is-0.506. While GDP in north Jiangsu and central Jiangsu are significantly positive correlated to rice yields and their coefficient of correlations are 0.692 and 0.550.Jiangsu’s agricultural planting structure was significantly influenced due to agricultural policies which shows powerful control and regulation force on different regions. However, this kind of force varies from region to region, which caused higher impacts on North Jiangsu area and lower income area compared with south Jiangsu and higher income area. Besides, lacking of cultivated lands makes the overall agricultural production mainly rely on crop yield per unit area improvement. And environmental factors and scientific and technologic improvements are the major factors explaining crop yields per unit area improvement.Demographic pressure brought about an overall downturn in agricultural ecological system diversity index. Only reduce the total number of population and the requirements of lands can really establish a diverse agricultural planting system.GIS, a spatial analysis tool, provides an alternative option for visible research with large quantity, long time span and reliable statistics.更多还原