【作者】 缪建红；

【导师】 冯俊文；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 近来全球动荡不安,恐怖组织和政治斗争的战火硝烟弥漫在整座城市的上空,令人不安。伴随着全球化格局的不断开放,诸如金融危机、财政危机、战争危机、能源危机、生态危机等全球危机问题渐渐逼近,而我国现处于社会转型期,面临着较多复杂社会安全问题。非营利组织,作为社会中一个重要组织,其快速发展的同时,也面临着众多疑难杂症,给非营利组织的健康发展及日常管理带来了许多不确定的因素,这些因素在特定的时间、场合便会激发矛盾,最终导致危机的产生。可见危机是管理工作中不可避免的,必须做好相应预防措施和应对策略,同时还应关注组织声誉的保护,继而用正确的、系统的声誉危机管理理论来指导声誉危机管理,采取正确的危机管理策略和技巧,将危机带来的危害降至最低。任何组织或单位如政府、企业、社团、个体等,都时刻存在着危机爆发的隐患。只有抓住了关键问题,其它问题才会迎刃而解。因而把声誉危机管理提到危机管理的战略高度来研究,找出声誉危机管理的关键问题、分析它的产生机理,探索声誉危机管理的危机处理原则。同时声誉危机都是一个量变转质变的过程,因而基于生命周期理论总结危机管理应对策略,形成系统的声誉危机管理理论和实务策略,以期对国内非营利组织尤其是高校有效地防范危机、管理危机产生现实的指导意义。在文献评述、问卷调查和统计分析等分析后,对声誉危机产生机理研究后,通过模糊评价法、BP神经网络法、灰色聚度分析法等的综合应用,非营利组织声誉危机常态化管理、预警、危机事后评价体系等进行了统计和案例分析,从而为高校实际发生危机时的管理和对策提供有效的借鉴,此外也可以对高校危机案例进行梳理,通过事后评价管理对高校内部和高校之间的危机管理评价进行纵横向比较。本文所做的主要工作和得到的主要结论如下：(1)对危机、非营利组织的声誉危机等定义和涵义进行了整理,明确声誉危机所指,吸引越来越多的学者关注非营利组织的管理和声誉维护,这不仅具有重要的理论价值,更具有重要的现实意义。(2)根据危机发生周期原理,通过问卷调查收集工信部所属各高校危机发生事件,并以南京某高校2004-2012年发生危机事件次数为样本,采用BP神经网络进行危机发生的预测。结论显示,本章设计的BP神经网络高校声誉危机预警系统对高校危机的预警和预测具有一定的适应能力,也就意味着高校可以通过此套系统对未来一定期间内的危机发生与否进行估计和预防。(3)基于生命周期理论的非营利组织危机应对策略,根据现代管理理论,提出面向高校的危机应对“四维度”管理模式,即预警体系、组织系统、利益相关者、学习反馈四个维度,在详细分析的基础上,提出有关建议。在此基础上,介绍了决策树分析方法,供决策者快速准确决定应对决策方案,有效控制危机扩散。另外,对“四维度”管理模式进行应用研究分析,证明了其在高校声誉危机管理中的可行性。(4)结合相关理论与实际调查,提出了声誉危机管理评价包含管理过程评价和管理效果评价。在确定评价内容的基础上,采用德尔菲法确定了各项评价指标。然后,基于层次分析法和灰色聚类评价理论构建了高校声誉危机管理评价模型,并依据这一模型对工信部下属某高校的声誉危机事件处理进行实证分析。实证结果表明这一模型具有较好的适用性,能够为评价高校的声誉危机管理提供帮助,此外,这一模型还能够帮助高校检视自身以改善不足。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years the world is undergoing great uncertainties, terrorism, political battles and wars are shedding light on the whole city, which makes us feel unsafe. Obviously, the crisis is unavoidable in the management work, just like death and paying taxes. We must make take precautions against them and make preparations to deal with them. And we are concerned about protecting the reputation of the organization. We guide the management of entrepreneur’s reputation crisis obeying the right and systematic theory. Improper ways may aggravate the crisis causing the great harm to the public image of the org, which leads to great losses. The systematic reputation crisis management theory will guide the org under right basic principles to save the entrepreneur from danger with right management strategies and techniques. The reputation crisis management covers a wide range, any org or company may have a crisis, such as the government, company, org and individuals, The application of the reputation crisis management may either be macro or micro, only by sticking to the keys, others will be solved following.Leveling the reputation crisis management to the strategic height of crisis management and research on it, finding out the key parts of it, analyze the mechanisms, discover the principles of tackling the crisis. Meanwhile the reputation crisis is a process in changes from quantity to quality, it’s concluded from life span theory to give the tackling strategies, systematic reputation crisis management theory and pragmatic policies are formed. So the guidance will be of realistic meaning to the effective precaution of crisis and crisis management in Chinese NGO and universities.After the review of documents, paper investigation, statistics analysis, the research into the mechanism of the occurrence of the reputation crisis, through the comprehensive use of vague evaluation, BP neural network, grey gathering analysis, it’s calculated and analyzed in NGO’s reputation crisis normal management, precaution and crisis post-evaluation system. Valuable experience of management and tackling is offered when crisis happens in the college. Besides, it can be concluded through the examples, horizontal comparisons will be made among universities in the crisis management evaluation.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) It’s arranged in the definitions and contents of crisis and NGO’S reputation crisis, what the reputation crisis refers to is clearly referred to, and attracts more and more scholars concerned about management and reputation guard of NGO, it’s not only of important theoretic values, but of significant realistic meaning.(2) According to the principle of crisis occurrence span, the crisis incidents occurred in the colleges that belong to the Industry and Information Department are collected by questionnaires, the number of crisis incidents that happen in certain university in NJ from 2004-2012, estimates of the precautions are derived from BP neural network. The conclusion is that, the BP neural network high college reputation crisis precaution system is adaptable to the precaution and estimate of high school’s crisis, which means high school can make estimates and precautions on whether crisis will happen in certain period in the future through this system.(3) Based on the life span theory, the tackling strategies against crisis of NGO put forward the’Four-Dimension’ management mode dealing with the high school crisis according to the modern management theory, that is, planning in advance, organizing systematically, communication between people concerned about the profit, learning and feedback. On the basis of detailed analysis, suggestions are offered. And decision tree analysis method is offered, so that decision makers will react fast and accurately, and control the crisis proliferation effectively. Besides, the application research analysis of the’Four-Dimension’ management mode proves that it’s feasible in the reputation crisis management of high school.(4) Based on the relevant theory and practical investigation, reputation crisis management evaluation is put forward, including management process evaluation and management outcome evaluation. On the basis of ensuring the evaluation contents, all the evaluation targets are set by the Delphi method. Then, the reputation crisis management evaluation model is constructed based on the level analysis and grey gathering evaluation system, practical analysis is done to the deals of the reputation crisis incidents in the colleges belong to the MIIT based on the model. The proved outcome demonstrates that this model is relatively applicable, and can aid the evaluation of reputation crisis management in universities. Besides, this model will help colleges look into themselves and improve themselves.更多还原