【作者】 刘阳；

【导师】 孙巍；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,伴随着经济发展、城镇化进程的加快,中国能源消费迅猛增长,能源的瓶颈效应日益凸显。整体看能源消费结构问题、环境问题不仅关乎国民的生活质量,而且也将对中国社会经济发展产生重大影响。结合学者们的相关研究及中国特有的国情可知,上述问题的产生既与中国“富煤、少油、贫气”的能源先天禀赋密切相关,同时也与目前中国的经济发展阶段紧密相连。从世界各国的发展历史经验看,相比煤炭,石油作为一种高效能源,不仅使用领域广泛、对于环境的污染也相对较小,将是今后一段时期中国能源消费结构转型的重点方向。因此,从能源效率的视角看,现阶段对于能源消费强度及其收敛规律问题的探讨,不仅能为提升石油资源利用效率提供有效的理论支撑,而且也能为中国转变经济增长方式、提升经济增长质量提供参考。从现有研究看,目前学术界对能源利用效率的研究,多基于能源总量的视角,对于分类能源的系统研究相对较为鲜见。由于不同类型能源的质量各异且使用效率也各不相同,产生的影响以及使用效果均存在较大差异,因此部分在能源总量视角下的研究并不具备可比性和普适性特征。此外,现有研究中对于分类能源消费的强度、效率等概念、内涵也缺乏准确界定,相关测度方法和评价指标也有待进一步完善。考虑到中国能源禀赋的特点,分类研究能源的效率更有利于加强对能源消费效应的把握和对能源消费与经济、社会发展关系的认识。基于此,本文围绕着优化中国石油能源的消费效率这一核心问题,在遵循“理论来于实践,并指导实践”这一思想的前提下,按照“理论梳理——现象分析——特征研究——成因分析——对策建议”的研究思路,采取理论分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,对中国石油消费强度收敛性问题进行了深入分析,主要研究内容如下:(1)进一步完善和明确了能源效率的内涵,测度了石油消费强度并对其影响因素进行了分析。在对现有的关于能源效率相关研究成果总结归类的基础上,本文对能源效率的定义、能源效率指标种类的划分及能源效率测度方式进行了详细的辨析,并借助于已有的研究结论明确了石油消费强度的测度方法。而后基于经济发展与能源消费的系统逻辑关系分析,实证探讨了影响中国石油消费强度的关键影响因素,并发现石油消费强度的形成与变动影响因素与总体能源强度的形成和变动影响因素间存在较大的相似性,但两者间也存在一定的差异,即在总体能源消费强度的研究中技术因素是一个基础且关键的影响因素,但在石油消费强度的分析中这一指标对石油消费强度并不存在显著性影响。(2)基于长期视角分析了石油消费强度的变动特征和演变趋势。本文在石油消费强度的概念框架下,分析了中国不同区域和不同产业的石油消费强度变化。研究表明,整体上多数省份的石油消费强度均呈下降趋势,具体到区域而言,石油消费强度的变化具有一定的区域差异性特征,即周边的东部及西部区域的整体降低水平要快于内陆的中部地区。此外在产业层面,各个产业的石油消费强度均逐年降低,其中第二产业的降幅最大。总体看石油消费强度的这种趋势,表明近年来中国能源政策和产业结构调整收到了一定的效果,从可视化视角看也表明中国石油消费强度可能存在一定的收敛性特征。(3)中国石油消费强度区域差异特征研究。依据石油消费强度的变动特征和演变趋势,考虑到石油消费强度的收敛性与差异性的逻辑关系,本文着重从区域强度差异的角度对可视化结论进行量化检验。基于长期分析的静态面板模型和短期分析的面板误差修正模型,在以石油消费强度和经济发展水平为划分依据的二维象限图中,本文将中国大陆地区30省划分为4区域,并在此基础上对各区域的石油消费强度及其影响因素进行分析,研究发现随着人均GDP的增长,虽然不同区域间石油消费强度变动存在显著差异,但整体上各区域间均呈现出显著下降趋势。(4)中国石油消费强度收敛性特征及其趋势特征研究。基于前文中国石油消费强度逐渐降低的量化结论,为进一步系统地揭示中国石油消费强度收敛性特征,本文在对?收敛模型、?收敛模型、俱乐部收敛模型以及空间计量等收敛测度模型分析的基础上,分析了中国石油能源强度收敛性特征。结论表明,中国各省域石油能源消费强度存在?绝对收敛和?条件收敛趋势。且城乡人口结构和交通行业比重对石油能源消费强度的收敛性有负向作用,而人均产值的提高、第二产业比重和煤炭能源消费比重的提升则有利于缩小各省间石油能源强度的差异进而促进收敛。(5)中国石油消费强度收敛性的城镇化效应研究。在完成宏观层面的石油消费强度收敛性分析后,考虑到中国特有的城乡二元经济特点,以及城乡的生产消费差异对石油能源的消费的影响。为进一步提升研究的实际应用价值,本文利用非线性门限面板模型对中国城镇化进程中石油消费强度的收敛效应进行了分析。研究表明,城镇化进程对工业化的优化效应对石油消费强度产生了较为显著的收敛作用。(6)中国石油消费强度收敛性的产业效应研究。产业层面的变动规律分析同样也是政府有针对性调节市场的重要依据,且当前中国正处于以优化产业结构、提升经济发展质量为核心的经济转型关键期。因此,本文通过库兹涅茨曲线模型,研究了产业结构调整对石油能源强度收敛的效应。结论一方面印证了中国石油消费强度逐年收敛的事实,同时进一步的分析表明,产业结构调整是导致中国石油消费强度呈收敛趋势主要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China’s reform and opening up, with the speeding up of economic development and the process of urbanization, the amount of China’s energy consumption has grown up very rapidly, and the bottleneck effect of energy has been highlighted day by day. Overall the problem of energy consumption structure and the environment problem are not only affect the quality of life of ordinary people, but also will have significant influences on the development of China’s society and economy. Based on the related researches by other scholars and considering China’s specific national conditions, we can conclude that these problems above are related to the innate endowment of China’s energy--lean in petroleum and gas,but rich in coal, as well as to the present development stage of China’s economic. From the development of countries all over the world, compared to the coal, petroleum, as a kind of high energy resources, is not only much more widely used, but also has less environment pollution. And the consumption of the petroleum is also an important trend for China’s energy transformation for a certain period in the future. Therefore, from the viewpoint of energy efficiency, the analysis of the energy consumption intensity at present and the rule of its convergence will not only provide effective theoretical support for improving the utilization efficiency of petroleum resources, but also provide references for transforming the mode of economic growth and improving the quality of economic growth in our country.The existing researches show that the academic community usually tend to study the energy utilization efficiency from the perception of total energy, while there are relatively rare systematic researches from the perception of classification of different types of energy. The quality and the utilization efficiency of different type of energy is different, so as a result, the corresponding influences and the effects are also different, which results in that the some research results of scholars can not be compared to each other and may not be universal. In addition, the existing researches are lack of accurately definition about the concept and connotation of the classification energy consumption’s intensity, efficiency and so on. And the measurement methods and evaluation indexes are also remains to be improved. Considering the characteristics of china’s energy endowment, the classification research of energy efficiency is more advantageous to understand china’s energy consumption effects and the relationship between energy consumption and the economic and social development. Based on these problems, this article pivots on the core issue to optimize China’s petroleum energy consumption efficiency, follows the thought that "theory from practice, and guide practice", adopts the research train of thought that "theory carding, phenomenon analysis, characteristic research, cause analysis and countermeasures putting-forth", combines the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis together, and analyzes, in detail, the Convergence features of petroleum consumption intensity in China. The main research contents are as follows:(1) Improve and clarify the connotation of energy efficiency, measure the intensity of petroleum consumption and analyze the influence factors of the intensity of petroleum consumption. On the basis of classification and summary of the existing research results about energy efficiency, this paper analyzes in details the definition,the classification and the measurement method of energy efficiency, and clarify the measurement method of energy efficiency by the research conclusions. Then based on the systematic logic analysis of the relationship between economic development and energy consumption, this paper empirically studies the key influence factors to the intensity of petroleum consumption in China, and finds that there exists not only great similarity between the influence factors that affect the formation and change of the intensity of petroleum consumption and the overall energy consumption, but also certain difference, that is, technical factor is basic and key factor in the study of the overall energy consumption intensity but has no significant impact on the analysis of the intensity of petroleum consumption.(2) Change characteristics and evolution trend of petroleum consumption intensity from the long-term perspective. On the basis of the concept of petroleum consumption intensity clarified last chapter, this paper analyzes the changes of petroleum consumption intensity in different areas and different industries in China. The results show that the intensity of petroleum consumption of most provinces are declining overall and for specific area, the change of petroleum consumption intensity also has certain regional differences, that is, the intensity of petroleum consumption in perimeter regions of the Eastern and the Western declines much more rapidly than that in the middle regions of the the Inland areas. Moreover, in terms of the level of industries, the intensity of petroleum consumption of all industries are declining year by year, of which the second industry undergoes the largest decline. Generally, this trend of the intensity of petroleum consumption shows that,in recent years, China’s energy policy and industrial structure adjustment has received certain effect. And from the visual perspective,this trend also indirectly shows that the intensity of petroleum consumption may exist certain convergence characteristics.(3) Study on the features of the regional differences of Chinese petroleum consumption intensity. Based on change characteristics and evolution trend of petroleum consumption intensity, Considering the logic relationship of difference and Convergence features of the Petroleum consumption intensity, this chapter emphatically focus on the quantitative inspection of the visualization conclusions from the perspective of regional intensity differences of petroleum consumption. Based on both static panel model and short-term-analysis panel error correction model. We divide the 30 provinces in mainland of China into 4 zones, by the quadrant diagram with the intensity of petroleum consumption and the level of economic development as two dimensions and then analyze the petroleum consumption intensity and the influence factors of different zone. The study results shows that with the increase of per capita GDP, the petroleum consumption intensity of four zones all show a significant decline on the whole, while the changes are significantly different in different areas.(4) Study on the convergence characteristics and the trend of China’s petroleum consumption intensity. Based on the quantitative conclusions made by last chapter that China’s petroleum consumption intensity is decreasing, in order to further systematically illustrate the convergence characteristics of China’s petroleum consumption intensity, this chapter analyze,in details, the convergence characteristics of China’s petroleum consumption intensity by four convergence measurement models, such as, the ? convergence model, the ? convergence model, the club convergence model and the spatial econometric measure convergence model. The conclusion shows that China’s province petroleum energy consumption intensity has absolute ? convergence and conditional ? convergence trend. And urban and rural population structure and the proportion of transportation industry has negative effect on the convergence of energy consumption intensity while the improvement of output per head, the proportion of secondary industry and the improvement of coal energy consumption may reduce the petroleum energy intensity differences among different provinces to promote the convergence.(5) Study on the urbanization effect of China’s petroleum consumption intensity. After the macro analysis of the petroleum consumption intensity, given China’s great differences between the urban and rural areas, especially the impact of the production and consumption differences of urban and rural areas on the petroleum energy consumption. To further enhance the practical value of the research, this chapter using nonlinear threshold panel model to analyze the convergence effect of the intensity of petroleum consumption in China’s urbanization process. The results show that the optimization of the industrial structure in the process of urbanization has relatively significant convergent effect on petroleum consumption intensity.(6) Study on the industry effect of China’s petroleum consumption intensity. The analysis of the change law on Industry level is also an important basis for the government to regulates the market. At present, China is on the key stage of economic development model transition and to optimize the industrial structure and to improve the quality of economic development is the core of the economic transformation. In this paper, the effect of industrial structure adjustment on oil consumption intensity was studied through constructing the Kuznets curve model. The conclusion, on the one hand, illustrates the fact that China’s petroleum consumption intensity converges year by year, and on the other hand, further analysis shows that the adjustment of industrial structure is the main factor results in the convergence trend of China’s petroleum consumption intensity.更多还原