【作者】 刘洋；

【导师】 马永开；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球一体化进程,跨国供应链管理得到了广泛的关注。跨国供应链管理的显著特点之一,就是供应链将同时受到汇率不确定性和市场不确定性的影响。于是,如何设计协调机制以减少这两种不确定因素对供应链绩效的影响成为跨国供应链管理中的一个重要问题。在现有的跨国供应链管理实践中,部分跨国企业直接使用经典协调策略来管理这两种不确定性对供应链的影响,由于经典协调策略大多关注市场不确定性对供应链绩效的影响,难以避免汇率剧烈波动造成的供应链绩效损失,需要有相应的理论支持和方法指导。而在现有的跨国供应链协调机制研究中,只有少数学者分别基于回购策略和数量折扣策略研究了采用上游企业所在国货币结算的供应链的协调问题。实际上,在跨国环境下,市场因素、结算时间和结算货币的差异都可能导致汇率波动对供应链的不同影响,跨国供应链协调机制的研究还有待进一步深入。本文基于由单一上游企业和单一下游企业所组成的二阶跨国供应链,通过将市场因素、结算时间和结算货币这三个要素纳入考虑,分析汇率波动对跨国供应链的影响机制,并进一步讨论相应的跨国供应链协调策略。本文将构建不同企业占据主导地位且市场因素存在差异的四个跨国供应链模型,通过不同企业占据主导地位来刻画结算货币的差异,从而比较特定市场因素下结算货币的差异对跨国供应链的影响。而在结算时间的刻画上,本文将分别讨论采购后立即结算以及销售季节末结算这两种结算方式;在上述四个跨国供应链模型中,通过考虑这两种结算方式所占的比例,研究结算时间差异对跨国供应链的影响。此外,考虑到研究中同时存在需求波动和汇率波动,本文利用数值分析讨论市场因素、结算时间和结算货币这三个要素发生变化时,节点企业绩效和汇率风险承担的变化情况。进一步,根据研究的结论,设计相应的跨国供应链协调机制。首先,本文构建了固定价格随机需求且上游企业占据主导地位的跨国供应链模型,讨论了汇率波动对跨国供应链的影响。通过引入预支付比例,研究了结算时间与跨国供应链绩效之间的关系。进一步,在回购契约中引入汇率,设计了跨国供应链的协调机制。研究表明:汇率波动直接对下游企业产生影响,汇率波动将通过下游企业调整订货量的策略影响到上游企业,进而对跨国供应链的模型均衡造成影响。结算时的期望汇率对下游企业不利将导致商品的订货量和跨国供应链的绩效同时下降。结算时间的差异会导致跨国供应链绩效的差异,签订契约后立即支付采购款可以有效地降低下游企业所的汇率风险承担。回购契约可以实现跨国供应链的协调。其次,本文基于固定价格随机需求且下游企业占据主导地位的跨国供应链模型,讨论了汇率波动对跨国供应链的影响。通过考虑采购后立即结算这一策略,研究了结算时间与汇率波动所造成的影响之间的关系。进一步,在价格补贴契约中考虑了汇率,设计了跨国供应链的协调机制。值得说明的是,这里考虑的是采购后立即支付货款的策略,难以通过建模的方式刻画结算时间差异对跨国供应链的影响,因此利用仿真分析讨论了企业的绩效以及相应的汇率风险承担。研究表明:汇率波动会对上游企业产生直接影响,汇率波动将通过上游企业调整生产数量的策略影响到下游企业,进而对跨国供应链的模型均衡造成影响。结算时的期望汇率对上游企业不利将导致商品的生产数量和跨国供应链的绩效同时下降。结算时间的差异会导致跨国供应链的绩效发生变化,采购后立即支付货款的策略可以构建出货款的对冲机制,从而有效地降低上游企业所承担的汇率风险。价格补贴契约可以协调该跨国供应链。然后,本文构建了价格敏感确定性需求且上游企业占据主导地位的跨国供应链模型,讨论了汇率波动对跨国供应链的影响机制。通过引入预支付比例,研究了结算时间与跨国供应链绩效之间的关系。进一步,将汇率纳入收益共享契约,设计了跨国供应链的协调机制。研究表明:汇率波动会对下游企业产生直接的影响,汇率波动将通过下游企业调整销售价格的策略影响到上游企业,进而对跨国供应链的模型均衡造成影响。结算时的期望汇率对下游企业不利将导致商品的销售价格上升,进而使跨国供应链的绩效下降。结算时间的改变会使得跨国供应链的绩效发生变化,在期初支付货款可以降低下游企业所承担的汇率风险。收益共享契约可以实现跨国供应链的协调。最后,本文基于价格敏感确定性需求且下游企业占据主导地位的跨国供应链模型,讨论了汇率波动对跨国供应链的影响机制。通过引入预支付比例,研究了结算时间与跨国供应链绩效之间的关系。进一步,通过收益共享和特许经营费所构成的组合策略,设计了跨国供应链的协调机制。研究表明:汇率波动会对上游企业产生直接影响,汇率波动将通过上游企业调整批发价格的策略影响到下游企业,进而对跨国供应链的模型均衡造成影响。结算时的期望汇率对上游企业不利会使得上游企业提高批发价格,这将导致下游企业提高边际利润,跨国供应链的绩效会出现下降。结算时间的差异会对跨国供应链的绩效产生影响,在期初结算货款可以有效地降低上游企业所承担的汇率风险。收益共享契约仅能使商品的销售价格达到一体化决策时的销售价格,却不能实现绩效的任意分配;采用收益共享和特许经营费相结合的策略可以实现跨国供应链的协调。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the speedy process of globalization, an increasing amount of enterprises utilize the global supply chain as the effective tool to search for bargains and oversea markets. In the global enviorment, both demand uncertainty and exchange rate uncertainty will affect the performance of global supply chain. Hence, decreasing the influences of these two uncertain factors becomes an important issue. In order to maximize expected profit, some transnational enterprises utilize the traditional coordination strategies to manage the global supply chain. However, as traditional coordination contracts mainly focus on demand uncertainty, the loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation is inevitable. Based on this, by considering the payment is settled in upstream firm’s currency, some scholars study the global supply chain coordination mechanism with buy-back contract and quantity-rebate contract. In fact, no matter market factor, settlement time or settlement currency, altering any of them will lead to different performance of the global supply chain. The coordination mechanism of global supply chain needs further research.This paper considers the two-echelon decentralized global supply chain, which is constituted of two node-enterprises reside in different countries. By introducing market factor, settlement currency and settlement time into the model, it constructs four distinct global supply chain models and concentrates on the impact of exchange rate fluctuation. Based on the effects of exchange rate fluctuation, it discusses coordination mechanisms with different global supply chain models. This paper utilizes global supply chain models with different dominant firm to describe the influences of different settlement currency. By considering two kinds of demand functions, it compares the impact of currency discrepancy. In order to studying the influence of different settlement times, this paper introduces two different terms of payments, one is settling the payment at the end of the sale season, the other one is settling the payment right after the procurement. Besides, since both demand and exchange rate are uncertain, this paper studies global supply chain models with specific parameters in order to comprehend the effects of exchange rate fluctuation. The main content of the paper includes: the impacts of settlement currency and market factor on the performance of global supply chain; how does settlement time influence the global supply chain; the equilibrium of these global supply chain models and corresponding coordination mechanisms.First, this paper builds a two-echelon global supply chain model in which demand is stochastic and upstream firm is dominated. With this global supply chain model, it examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the node-enterprises’ strategic behaviors and the performance of global supply chain. Also, it analyses the influence of settlement time by introducing pre-paid ratio. Moreover, it discusses the coordination mechanism by taking exchange rate into consideration. The result shows that, exchange rate fluctuation will affect downstream firm directly, and the influence of exchange rate fluctuation will transmit to upstream firm by the adjustment of downstream firm’s strategic behaviors. Exchange rate fluctuation will influence the equilibrium of this global supply chain model. When the expected exchange rate is adverse to downstream firm, downstream firm will decrease the order quantity, and the performance of global supply chain will also be declined. When the expected exchange rates are distinct at different settlement times, settling the transfer payments at different time points will lead to different performance of the global supply chain. The buy-back contract can coordinate this global supply chain.Second, this paper develops a two-echelon global supply chain model in which demand is stochastic and downstream firm is dominated. With this global supply chain model, it studies the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the node-enterprises’ strategic behaviors and the performance of global supply chain. Note that, the purchase quantity cannot be determined due to uncertain demand. So it analyses the influence of settlement time by numerical analysis instead of modeling. Hence, it discusses the coordination mechanism by taking exchange rate into consideration. The result shows that, exchange rate fluctuation will affect upstream firm directly, and the influence of exchange rate fluctuation will transmit to downstream firm by the adjustment of upstream firm’s strategic behaviors. Exchange rate fluctuation will influence the equilibrium of global supply chain model. When the expected exchange rate is adverse to upstream firm, upstream firm will decrease the production quantity, and the performance of global supply chain will be declined too. Settling the transfer payment right after the procurement will form a hedging mechanism. This mechanism will reduce the exchange rate risk which upstream firm bears. The sale-rebate contract can coordinate this global supply chain.Then, this paper constructs a two-echelon global supply chain model in which demand is price-sensitive deterministic-demand and upstream firm is dominated. With this global supply chain model, it studies the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the node-enterprises’ strategic behaviors and the performance of global supply chain. Also, it analyses the influence of settlement time by introducing pre-paid ratio. Moreover, it discusses the coordination mechanism by taking exchange rate into consideration. The result shows that, exchange rate fluctuation will affect downstream firm directly, and the influence of exchange rate fluctuation will transmit to upstream firm by the adjustment of downstream firm’s strategic behaviors. When the expected exchange rate is unfavorable to downstream firm, downstream firm will increase the sale price; this strategic behavior will also decrease the performance of global supply chain. When the expected exchange rates are distinct at different settlement times, settling transfer payments at different time points will result in different performances of global supply chain. The revenue-sharing contract can coordinate this global supply chain.Finally, this paper builds a two-echelon global supply chain model in which demand is price-sensitive deterministic-demand and downstream firm is dominated. With this global supply chain model, it studies the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the node-enterprises’ strategic behaviors and the performance of global supply chain. Also, it analyses the influence of settlement time by introducing pre-paid ratio. Moreover, it discusses the coordination mechanism by taking exchange rate into consideration. The result shows that, exchange rate fluctuation will affect upstream firm directly. When the expected exchange rate is adverse to upstream firm, upstream firm will increase the wholesale price in order to maximize its own profit. This behavior will result in a higher sale price, and the performance of global supply chain will be declined. When the expected exchange rates are distinct at different settlement times, settling the transfer payment at different time points will lead to different performance of global supply chain. With the revenue-sharing contract, this global supply chain can only achieve centralized profit. But the system profit cannot be allocated arbitrarily between upstream firm and downstream firm. With the revenue-sharing strategy and the franchise fee, this global supply chain can be coordinated.更多还原