【作者】 李昌荣；

【导师】 傅春；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 当前,随着农村经济社会的变革与发展,农户的生计活动和生计策略越来越呈现多元化,农村家庭的正规信贷需求十分旺盛。农村借贷市场存在农户“借款难”和金融机构“放款难”的两难局面,这里面根本的问题是金融机构认为农户“信用水平不够”,虽然目前农村信用合作社在农村开展一系列信用评比和信用建设工作,但实际上运行的结果仍然是农村中经济条件较好的农户能够获得信贷。另外,微型金融的成功发展在一定程度上帮助农户得到金融服务,但微型金融的可持续性问题和“使命漂移“问题不断引起理论与实务的关注。这些都说明农户金融服务应该关注农户的“信用毕业”,农户五种生计资本(自然资本、物质资本、金融资本人力资本、社会资本)是农户赖以生存与发展的核心要素,探讨生计资本对农户信用的影响机制具有理论和现实意义。本文主要做了三方面工作:1、根据实际的调研和接触到的案例,确定本文的逻辑起点就是认为农户信用状况总体来说是农户生计成果的一种表现。基于农户经济理论、信用理论、经济社会学的嵌入性理论、社会资本理论,借助生计发展分析框架来系统分析农户信用的背景构成和基本的信用要素体系。研究结果如下:(1)农户的生计资本、农户所处的自然环境和社会环境这三方面共同构成分析农户信用的基本背景,这一结果可以帮助我们合适地分析和把握农户信用的前因变量体系。(2)生计资本对农户信用的基本作用表现在:第一、生计资本是农户抵御生计风险的基本依赖;第二、生计资本可以影响农户信用行为转变、影响农户获得信贷资源的能力与水平。(3)农户五种生计资本相对完备地体现了农户信用的内在要素。同时生计资本与外部环境的具有交互影响,因而农户的生计资本也很合适地反映了其信用的外在要素,故此生计资本构成了农户信用的基本和相对完备的信用要素(4)基于生计资本之间存在顺序性、替代性两种关系,作为农户生计发展的核心要素,五种生计资本(自然资本、物质资本、金融资本、人力资本、社会资本)作用农户信用呈现结构化特征;社会资本的活跃性、重要性决定了农户社会资本在这一结构中特殊地位。(5)本文建立了一个农户信用系统分析概念模型,模型的基本含义是:现阶段,生计导向仍然是农户经济行为的总体特征,农户信贷活动是农户依托生计资本做出的一种生计选择,农户信用状况是农户生计发展的一种体现;农户生计发展的核心要素——生计资本、农户所处的自然环境和社会环境共同决定了农户的信用状况;农户信用的内在要素由农户的五种生计资本组成,考虑到生计资本与外部的自然环境、社会环境的交互性,农户的生计资本也很合适地体现了其信用的外在要素,因而农户的自然资本、物质资本、金融资本、人力资本、社会资本相对完备地构成农户的信用要素;生计资本之间存在顺序性、替代性,使得生计资本对农户信用的影响形成一定的结构特征;社会资本的活跃性、重要性决定了农户社会资本在这一结构中所具有的特殊地位。2、讨论了农户信用系统分析概念模型中一个重要内容,就是农户社会资本对农户信用的影响。通过界定农户信用为“金融机构认为农户会按期归还贷款的概率”,利用不完全信息动态博弈研究方法来讨论这一概率的如何确定;同时分析社会资本的基本效应,讨论社会资本对农户信用的直接影响。研究结果表明,社会资本的资本效应通过对农户信用函数的影响,产生对农户信用的影响效应,3、利用建立的农户信用系统分析概念模型的框架,通过文献整理提出研究假设,建立生计资本影响农户信用的结构模型,在此模型中,社会资本是一个中介变量。通过江西省信用联社对农户进行问卷调查获取调查数据,然后实证分析讨论变量间关系假设检验。对于社会资本的中介效应的检验,采用结构方程模型来研讨农户社会资本的中介效应。研究表明:(1)在生计资本对农户信用影响方面,结果显示:农户的物质资本、金融资本、社会资本对农户信用有正向影响作用,人力资本的正向作用显示不明显,自然资本的正向影响作用的假设没有得到支持。(2)在考察农户社会资本的前因变量(人力资本、金融资本、物质资本、自然资本)对农户社会资本的影响方面,结果显示:农户的人力资本、金融资本对农户的社会资本有正向影响作用,但自然资本对农户社会资本的正向影响作用的假设没有得到支持,而农户的物质资本对农户社会资本有负面影响。(3)在社会资本的中介效应检验方面,结果显示:第一、自然资本通过社会资本对农户信用的间接影响不明确;第二、物质资本通过社会资本对农户信用的间接影响显著,社会资本发挥部分中介效应;金融资本资本通过社会资本对农户信用的间接影响显著,社会资本发挥部分中介效应;第三、与众多学者研究结果不同,本文发现虽然人力资本对农户信用的直接影响不明显,但人力资本通过社会资本对农户信用产生一定的间接影响作用,这个结果表明人力资本在表面上是影响不易被观察得到的,但其总的作用是存在的,社会资本发挥完全中介效应。本文的这些结果有助于我们更清晰的,相对完整的认识农户信用基本要素及其作用机理,更好地了解农户信用决定机制。本论文的可能创新之处有三个方面:(1)构建了一个农户信用系统分析模型;基于这个系统分析模型,本文进一步提出了提出了农户生计资本(包括自然资本、物质资本、金融资本、人力资本、社会资本五种形式)影响农户信用的具体结构模型。基于生计发展分析框架并嵌入社会视角研究农户信用问题,构建了农户信用系统分析模型。讨论了生计资本对农户信用的基本作用和农户社会资本的重要性,分析生计资本作为农户信用要素的完备性与结构性。通过文献整理提出研究假设,构建了生计资本影响农户信用的结构模型并进行实证分析,讨论农户信用前因变量的作用结果,讨论了社会资本的中介效应,得到了生计资本影响农户信用的有关路径和结构,为农户信用问题的进一步研究提供了理论基础和依据。(2)通过研究提出了社会资本的定义,并得出“农户社会资本的维度可由资源的可动员性维度、资源质量特征维度、资源的社会结构维度这三个维度构成”,这对分析农户社会资本、考察测量农户社会资本提供新的视角;(3)利用不完全信息动态博弈方法讨论了社会资本对农户信用函数的影响,从而揭示了社会资本对农户信用的直接影响效应,进一步完善了社会资本对农户信用作用的理论分析假设和研究框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, with reform and development of rural society and economy, the living activities and living strategies of peasant households present more and more diversified, the formal credit demands from rural families are very strong. It is a dilemma for peasant households’ borrowing and financial institutions’ loaning in rural credit market, the basic problem is that financial institutions don’t think peasant households meet the "credit level". Although rural credit cooperatives are developing a series work of credit rating and credit construction in the rural areas now, but in fact,the results of these activities are actually beneficial for peasant households in good economic condition. In addition, the successful development of microfinance helps peasant households get access to financial services in a certain extent, but the sustainability and "mission drift" problems of microfinance cause the attention from both theoretical and practical fields. These all suggest that the financial services for peasant households should pay more attention to “peasant household credit graduation”. The five kinds of livelihood capital(natural capital, physical capital,financial capital, human capital and social capital) are key elements for survival and development of peasant households, discussion about the influence mechanism of livelihood capital to peasant household credit has theoretical and practical significance.This paper has mainly completed three aspects of work:1. According to the actual research and cases which can be in contact with,determining the logical starting point of this paper is to treat peasant household credit as a manifestation of peasants’ livelihood results. The system analysis about background structure of peasant household credit and the basic credit elements system is on the basis of economic theory of peasant household, credit theory, the embedding theory of economic sociology, social capital theory and with method of framework for livelihood development. Studies have shown that:(1)Livelihood capital of peasant household, the natural environment they are faced with and social environment constitute the basic background of peasanthousehold credit, this result can help us analyze and grasp the dependent variable system of peasant household credit properly.(2)The basic function of living capital to peasant household credit is reflected as: Firstly, livelihood capital is the basic dependence of peasant household against livelihood risk. Secondly, livelihood capital can not only affects the transformation of peasant household credit behavior but also the ability and level of peasant households’ access to credit resources.(3)The five livelihood capital of peasant household reflect the inner element of peasant household credit thoroughly. Meanwhile, there exists interaction effect between living capital and external environment, so livelihood capital of peasant household reflects external factors of peasant household credit appropriately,livelihood capital constitutes the basic and relatively completed credit elements of peasant household credit.(4)Because of sequence and substitution which exist among livelihood capital,as the core element of peasant household livelihood development, the influence of these five kinds of livelihood capital(natural capital,physical capital, financial capital,human capital, social capital) to peasant household credit presents structural characteristics. The activity and importance of social capital determine the special status of peasant household social capital in this structure.(5) This paper has established a system analysis concept model of peasant household credit, the basic meaning of the model is: at present, livelihood orient is still the general characteristic of peasant household economic behavior, the activities of peasant household credit is one of the livelihood choices which made by peasant households depend on livelihood capital, peasant household credit condition is a reflection of peasant household livelihood development; The core element of peasant household livelihood development——livelihood capital, natural environment peasant households faced with and social environment determine the condition of peasant household credit together. The internal factors of peasant household credit are consisted of five kinds of peasant household livelihood capital, considering the interaction among livelihood capital, external natural environment and social environment, the livelihood capital of peasant household also embodies externalfactors of peasant household credit appropriately, so the natural capital, physical capital, financial capital, human capital and social capital of peasant household constitute the elements of peasant household credit thoroughly; Sequence and substitution which exist among livelihood capital, make the influence of livelihood capital to peasant household credit form certain structural features, the importance and activity of social capital determine the special status of peasant household social capital in this structure.2.An important content in system analysis concept model of peasant household credit has been discussed, it is the influence of peasant household social capital to peasant household credit. Through defining peasant household credit as the probability that financial institutions think loans can be repaid in time by peasant households, and with the aid of the research method of incomplete information dynamic game to discuss the question that how to determine the probability,analyzing the basic effect of social capital and discussing the direct influence of social capital to peasant household credit at the same time. The results have showed that, the capital effect of social capital produces the impact of promoting peasant household credit through affecting the function of peasant household credit.3.With aid of system analysis concept model of peasant household credit which has been established, research hypothesis are put forward after literature collation, the structure model about the influence of livelihood capital to peasant household credit has been established. In this model, social capital is an intermediary variable.Through the related data from questionnaire survey for peasant household carried by Jiangxi credit association, this paper discusses the relationship among variables through empirical analysis. When it comes to the tests for the mediation effect of social capital, this paper has used structural equation model to research the mediation effect of peasant household social capital. Studies have shown that:(1)In terms of the influence of livelihood capital to peasant household credit,the result has showed: peasant household physical capital, financial capital and social capital have positive effects on peasant household credit, the positive effect of human capital is not obvious and the assumption of natural capital’s positive effect is lack of support.(2)When examining the effect caused by former dependent variable of peasant household social capital to peasant household social capital, the result has showed:human capital and financial capital of peasant household have positive effects on peasant household social capital, but the assumption of natural capital’s positive impact on peasant household social capital can’t be supported here, and peasant household physical capital has a negative effect on peasant household social capital.(3)During the process of mediation effect test about social capital, studies have found that: Firstly, the intermediary effect of peasant household social capital is not clear during the process of natural capital affecting peasant household credit;Secondly, the partial intermediary effect of peasant household social capital is significant during the process of physical capital affecting peasant household credit;the partial intermediary effect of peasant household social capital is significant during the process of financial capital affecting peasant household credit; thirdly, different from some research results made by other scholars, but this paper has found out that although the direct influence of human capital to peasant household credit is not obvious, the intermediary effect of social capital in the influence relationship between peasant household human capital and its credit is really, this result has showed that the influence of human capital is not easy to be observed on the surface, but its overall effect is there, social capital plays a completed intermediary effect.These results concluded by this paper can help us understand the basic elements of peasant household credit and its working mechanism more clearly, and know the decision mechanism of peasant household credit better.The innovation of this paper maybe has three aspects:( 1) System analysis concept model of peasant household credit has been established; Based on this system analysis model, this paper further puts forward the concrete structure model on the influence of peasant household livelihood capital(natural capital,physical capital, financial capital, human capital, social capital) to peasant household credit.This paper is based on the framework of livelihood development analysis to study the problem of peasant household credit associated with social perspective,establishes system analysis concept model of peasant household credit, discusses theimportance of livelihood capital to peasant household credit and peasant household social capital, analyzes the integrity of livelihood capital which is the element of peasant household credit. This paper puts forward research hypothesis after literature collation, establishes structure model on the influence of livelihood capital to peasant household credit, discusses the outcomes brought by former dependent variables of peasant household credit, discusses mediating effect of social capital, gets the path and structure on how livelihood capital influences peasant household credit, it also provides the theoretical basis for further research on the problem of peasant household credit.(2)This paper puts forward the definition of social capital through research,and finds out that the dimension of peasant household social capital is constituted by mobilization dimension of resources, resource quality characteristics dimensions and dimension of social structure of resources, this provides a new perspective to analyze,study and measure peasant household social capital.(3)This paper has discussed the influence of social capital to the function of peasant household credit with the method of incomplete information dynamic game,which reveals the direct impact of social capital to peasant household credit,theoretical analysis and research framework on the influence of social capital to peasant household credit have been further improved.更多还原