【作者】 林斌；

【导师】 周小亮；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 科技保险作为科技与金融相结合的重要产物,已成为科技企业分散、转移科技创新风险的主要手段之一。本文在梳理国内外文献基础上,构建了科技保险中风险决策偏好、风险分担与组织绩效之关系的研究框架,并对作用机理进行演化博弈分析,提出了概念模型与研究假设；接着对保险公司进行问卷调查,收集了243个样本数据并通过相关检验；最后利用结构方程模型等方法实证检验了研究假设,并对所得结论进行了分析和讨论。本文以问题导向和实证分析为基础,开展了具有一定探索创新的理论与实践研究,并得出了一些具有一定理论创新价值和现实指导意义的结论,主要是：1.科技保险中风险决策偏好、风险分担与组织绩效之间存在三元关系。在文献归纳基础上,从风险决策偏好与组织绩效关系出发,引入风险分担提出了三者存有相互关系的研究假说,将风险决策偏好与组织绩效二元关系拓展成风险决策偏好、风险分担与组织绩效三元关系。本文构建了保险公司与科技企业之间的博弈模型,并通过演化博弈分析得出了各变量之间的基本逻辑关系,即风险决策偏好作为自变量,通过风险分担这个中间变量,影响因变量组织绩效。这为今后科技风险管理与保险问题研究提供了理论分析框架,深化、拓展了偏好理论、风险管理等理论。2.科技保险中风险决策偏好、风险分担与组织绩效具有不同的结构特性。本研究将风险决策偏好划分为认知维度、考核维度与结构维度,将风险分担划分为主体选择与渠道建构,将组织绩效划分为财务维度和社会维度。相关检验表明,上述划分具有一定的科学性和合理性,有助于实践部门针对性地采取措施推动科技保险发展。3.风险决策偏好三个维度对风险分担的影响效力存在差异。一方面,风险决策偏好考核维度对风险分担主体选择和渠道建构均产生显著的正向影响,且其影响效力是风险决策偏好各维度中最高的；另一方面,它对于风险分担渠道建构将近一半的影响是通过风险分担主体选择这一中介来实现的。风险决策偏好认知维度对风险分担渠道建构具有显著的正向影响；与之相反,风险决策偏好结构维度与风险分担之间则呈现负相关关系。因此,科技风险分担受制于风险决策偏好,这一结果为推动科技风险分担提供新的思路。4.风险分担两个维度对组织绩效的作用各不同。实证显示,风险分担主体选择与渠道建构对于组织绩效财务维度和社会维度均呈现正向影响,且风险分担对组织绩效社会维度影响主要是通过组织绩效财务维度这一中介来实现的。此外,风险决策偏好一方面通过认知层面调节风险活动主体选择判断并推动财务绩效,另一方面通过结构层面调节转移或分散科技创新风险来影响财务绩效和社会绩效。本文系统剖析了二者之间的关系,使研究结果更具解释力。5.风险分担、组织绩效内部维度之间存在影响。本文还发现,风险分担主体选择与渠道建构、组织绩效财务维度与社会维度之间均存在正向影响。该结论弥补了以往研究的不足,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。6.信息不对称对于各变量之间的结构关系存有影响。信息不对称一方面从考核层面弱化了风险决策偏好对风险分担、从主体选择层面弱化了风险分担对组织绩效的影响效力；另一方面从认知和结构层面强化了风险决策偏好对风险分担、从渠道建构层面强化了风险分担对组织绩效的影响效力。这一结论在一定程度上为科技保险可持续发展提供了启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 The science&technology insurance as the important product of science&technology and finance,has become one of important measures that science&technology enterprises scatter and transfer science&technology risks.Based on the analysis of relevant literature,this paper firstly designs the research framework of the relationships among risk decision preference,risk sharing and organizational performance in science&technology insurance,and uses evolutionary game method to analyze the mechanisms,which proposes the conceptual model and assumptions.The paper secondly conducts the questionnaire survey on insurance company,which all 243 datas pass the relevant tests. Using the methods including the structure function model and so on,the paper finally makes the empirical analysis of the hypothesis and analyzes the conclusions.Based on problem-oriented and empirical analysis,the paper carried out the research on the theories and practice which had certain explorations and innovations,and comes to the conclusions which had some theoretical value and realistic directive significance,such as:1. Risk decision preference,risk sharing and organizational performance in the science&technology insurance had the ternary relationships.On the basis of literature reviews, the paper started from the analysis of mutual relationships between risk decision preference and risk sharing,then introduced risk sharing into the former relationships. The paper proposed the research hypotheses that risk decision preference,risk sharing and organizational performance had mutual relationships,which expanded the binary relationships between risk decision preference and organizational performance into the ternary relationships.The paper built the game model between insurance company and science&technology enterprise,which drew the basic logical relationships among variables through evolutionary game analysis.In other words, risk decision preference as the independent variable acted on organizational performance as the dependent variable through risk sharing as intermediate variables.The conclusion provided a theoretical analysis framework of the problems of science&technology risk management and insurance,which deepened and expanded relevant theories such as the preference theory,the risk management theory.2. Risk decision preference,risk sharing and organizational performance in science&technology insurance had different structures,dimensions and characteristics.Firstly,the paper divided risk decision preference into three dimensions including cognitive dimension,assessment dimension and structure dimension.Secondly,the paper divided risk sharing into two dimensions including subjective selection and channel construction.Finally,the paper divided organizational performance into two dimensions including financial and social dimension.The relevant tests found that the divisions had the certain science and rationality,which would help the practice departments to take special measures to promote the development of science&technology insurance.3. Three dimensions of risk decision preference had different impacts on risk sharing.Empirical studies found the assessment dimension of risk decision preference had the siginificant positive impacts on both subjective selection and channel construction of risk sharing.Empirical studies also found that the assessment dimension of risk decision preference had nearly half impact on the channel construction of risk sharing through the intermediary of subjective selection of risk sharing, and the effectiveness of assessment dimension was the most important in all dimensions of risk decision preference.The cognitive dimension of risk decision preference had the siginificant positive impact on channel construction of risk sharing.On the contrary,the structure dimension of risk decision preference had the siginificant negative impact on all demensions of risk sharing.Studies suggested that risk sharing of science&technology were subject to risk decision preference.This finding would provide new idea to promote risk sharing of science&technology.4. Two dimensions of risk sharing had different impacts on organizational performance.The empirical results showed that both subjective selection and channel construction of risk sharing had the siginificant positive impact on both financial dimension and social dimension of organizational performance,and the effectivenesses of risk sharing to social dimension of organizational performance were realized mainly through the intermediary of financial dimension of organizational performance.On the one hand,risk decision preference promoted financial performance by which the cognitive level regulated subjective selection and judgement of risk activities.On the other hand,risk decision preference had impacts on financial and social performance by which the structure level adjusted or scattered innovation risks of science&technology.The paper systematically analyzed the relationships,which made the results have strong explanatory power.5.The internal dimension either risk sharing or orginational performance had mutual effects.The paper also found that the subjective selection of risk sharing had a positive impact on the channel construction of risk sharing,and the financial dimension of organizational performance had a positive impact on the social dimension of organizational performance.The result made up for the shortcomings of previous studies,which had certain theoretical and practical value.6. Asymmetry information had certain impacts on the structure relationships among variables. On the one hand,asymmetry information weakened the effectiveness that the assessment dimension of risk decision preference had impacts on risk sharing,and weakened the effectiveness that the subjective selection of risk sharing had impacts on organizational performance.On the other hand,asymmetry information strengthened the effectiveness that the cognitive and structure dimensions of risk decision preference had impacts on risk sharing,and strengthened the effectiveness that channel construction of risk sharing had impacts on organizational performance. To some extent,the conclusion provided some inspirations for the sustainable development of science&technology.更多还原