【作者】 孙永平；

【导师】 谭崇台；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 西方经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 从历史进程来看,不论是早期的西欧崛起,还是在后来的西欧分支国家的崛起,自然资源都起到了至关重要的作用。但是,二战以来,许多国家尽管自然资源丰裕,初级产品出口产业蓬勃兴旺,经济增长却不如人意,经济学家用“资源诅咒”来描述这种自然资源丰裕国家经济增长的“悖论”。尽管“资源诅咒”引起了不小的争议,但是却得到了学术界、世界银行和国际货币基金组织等国际机构、民间非政府组织的普遍承认。同时,“资源诅咒”也激起了学者们的广泛研究兴趣,产生了一批研究成果。首先,本文全面回顾和总结了公元1000年以来,自然资源丰裕对于一国经济增长的影响。本文把这段历史进程分为三次“中心-外围”格局,并分别归纳总结在每次“中心-外围”格局中,“外围”国家与“中心”国家之间的自然资源密集型产品贸易对于“外围”国家经济增长的影响。分析表明,在第一次“中心-外围”格局中,荷兰、英国、法国等当时处于“外围”的国家,通过和当时的“中心”伊斯兰国家进行自然资源密集型产品贸易,经济增长获得了长足的发展。同样,丰裕的自然资源,特别是丰裕的煤炭资源,是工业革命之所以率先在英国萌芽的重要原因,而海外资源暴利的获取则加速了工业革命的进程。在第二次“中心-外围”格局中,美国、加拿大、澳大利亚等西欧分支国家,通过与西欧开展自然资源密集型产品,在经纪商获得了长足的发展,最终完成了由“外围”向“中心”的格局转换。但是,在第三次“中心-外围”格局中,自然资源丰裕型国家,尤其是自然资源丰裕型发展中国家的经济增长却比相同条件的自然资源缺乏国家更为缓慢,似乎遭到了自然资源的“诅咒”。其次,本文构建了数理模型分析了自然资源丰裕对于经济增长的直接和间接影响。分析表明,从直接效应来看,自然资源是经济增长的生产要素,在其他条件相同的情况下,自然资源丰裕的国家拥有较高的人均收入。从间接效应来看,自然资源丰裕对制造业部门产生挤出效应,容易诱发“荷兰病”；自然资源的高获利性和寻租天性,往往会对制度创新产生挤出效应；在现有的政治体制下,自然资源价格的频繁变化,使得自然资源的可持续发展面临极大威胁：在制定质量相对较差的国家往往会产生一种“亲”资源掠夺者均衡,阻碍了制造业的发展和企业家才能的培养,最终产生了自然资源“诅咒”的结果。最后,本文利用中国城市面板数据,在前文历史回顾和理论分析的基础上,探讨了自然资源丰裕对中国城市经济增长的影响。实证分析表明,从各城市的地理位置来看,中部地区城市和西部地区城市资源丰裕与人均GDP的增长率之间呈现倒U型关系。但是,东部地区城市资源丰裕与人均GDP的增长率之间呈现J型关系,“资源诅咒”在东部地区城市中并没有出现。其次,在资源丰裕视角来看,在非资源型城市,资源丰裕与人均GDP增长率正相关；在资源型城市,资源丰裕与人均GDP的增长率负相关。最后,本文的研究表明,资源丰裕通过弱化民营经济发展,打击制造业,减少R&D的溢出效应,降低人力资本投资意愿,阻碍FDI流入等传导渠道,阻碍了资源型城市的经济增长。本文基本内容共分为7章。第一章绪论,主要介绍论文的选题意义、基本内容和方法；第二章文献综述,主要介绍国内外已有的研究成果以及已有文献的不足；第三章自然资源丰裕与经济增长：历史与现实,主要是从经济增长史的角度,梳理和考察公元1000年以来,自然资源与经济增长的关系,为下文的研究提供历史依据;第四章自然资源丰裕对于经济增长的直接影响,本章构建了一个新古典数理模型,分析自然资源丰裕对于经济增长的直接影响；第五章自然资源丰裕对于经济增长的间接影响,通过构建数学模型分析自然资源丰裕如何影响了制造业、制度质量和企业家才能等经济增长的关键变量；第六章自然资源与中国城市经济增长,本章在第四章和第五章分析结论的基础上,采用实证分析方法,探讨自然资源对于中国城市经济增长的影响；第七章结论与展望,在总结全文的基础上,提出未来研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the rise of Western Europe and its overseas offshoots, natural resources play a very important role. However, since World WarⅡ, many resource-rich countries failed to achieve economic development, even though their primary products export exhibited booming. Economists use "resources curse" to describe this paradox between abundant natural resources and economic growth. Although arousing a lot of disputes, "resources curse" has been recognized by the academic circles, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and other international agencies, and private non-governmental organization. At the same time, "resource curse" also has stirred up extensive researches.First of all, this article presents a comprehensive review about the relationship between abundant natural resources and economic growth since A.D.1000. In this paper, this historical period is divided into three "center - periphery" patterns. At the first "center - periphery" pattern, Western European countries, such as Dutch, Britain, France, etc., which are the "periphery" countries, by trading natural resource-intensive products with the "center" Muslim countries, achieved a considerable economic development. Certainly, the abundance of natural resources is also vital for the subsequent Industrial Revolution taking place firstly in the United Kingdom. In the second "center - periphery" pattern, the United States, Canada, Australia and other Western European offshoots, though the trade of natural resource-intensive products with Western Europe, gained significant development, and eventually completed pattern conversion from "periphery" to "center".However, in the third "center -periphery" pattern, resources-rich countries, particularly developing countries, their economic growth was far from satisfactory in comparison with resources-poor countries, which is seemingly cursed by abundant natural resources.Secondly, this paper constructs a mathematical model to analyze the relationship between natural resources abundance and economic growth. Our analysis shows that, from the perspective of direct effects, natural resource is a basic product factor. Under the same conditions, the country with abundant natural resources must have a higher per capita income. From the perspective of indirect effects, abundant natural resources crowds out the manufacturing sector, and induces "Dutch disease". The high profit of Natural resources sector tends to induce the rent-seeking, and hinders institution innovation. In the present political system, the frequent changing price makes the sustainable development of natural resources sector faced with great threat. In a quality-poor institution country, abundant natural resources tend to produce a friendly resources predator equilibrium, which hinders the development of the manufacturing industry and the cultivation of entrepreneurial talent. At last, putting together these entire factors produces the "resource curse" results.Finally, this paper uses cities panel data in China in order to analyze relationship between the resource abundance and economic development. Our study found that resource abundance and economic growth is not a simple negatively linear relation, but a reverse U-shaped relation. In the non-resource-based cities, resource endowment is correlated positively with the growth rate of per capita GDP; in the resource-based cities, resource endowment is correlated negatively with the growth rate of per capita GDP. At the same time, we found that in the central cities and western cities, resource endowment and the growth rate of per capita GDP exhibit the reverse U-shaped relationship. However, in coastal cities, resource endowments and the growth rate of per capita GDP exhibit a J- shaped relationship. The "resource curse" did not occur in the coastal cities. Finally, our studies show that resources abundance, through reducing human capital investment, weakening non-public economic sectors, depressing FDI inflows, reducing R&D spillovers, impedes the economic development of cities in China.This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction, which explains study background, significance, basic content and method, etc. The second chapter is literatures Review, which mainly introduces the research achievements and deficiencies. The third chapter mainly summarizes influence of natural resources for economic growth since 1000 A.D. The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter construct mathematical models to analyze the direct and indirect influence of natural resources on economic growth. The sixth chapter, through the empirical methods, discusses natural resources abundance how to affect economic growth of China cities. The seventh Chapter, on the basis of summing up this paper, puts forward the future direction of the research.更多还原