【作者】 张丽莉；

【导师】 李秀敏；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 自1978年改革开放至今，随着中国经济对外开放的日益深化，中国内外均衡的矛盾变得愈加激烈和复杂，呈现出越增长越失衡且内外失衡同时加剧的特点。为了治理中国内外经济的失衡问题，国家使用了多种政策工具，政策力度也不断加大，但政策效果并不尽如人意。特别是最近几年，内部经济结构性失衡和外部经济双顺差的状况没有得到根本的改善。内外经济失衡给中国的发展带来了诸多障碍和负面影响。就经济领域而言，造成投资结构的扭曲，资源配置的效率低下，经济增长的不可持续性甚至可能诱发经济危机；就社会领域而言，造成社会贫富差距过大，人民生活质量得不到改善，不利于国家的和谐稳定；就资源环境领域而言，造成环境污染、资源浪费等等。由此可见中国内外经济失衡的治理是十分必要和紧迫的。本文正是在中国“内忧外患”的背景下，从财政货币政策的优化角度研究宏观政策调控对内外均衡影响的有效性问题。全文共分为六章，第一章为导论。这一章对本文的研究背景及意义、相关文献综述、研究内容、方法与创新等方面做了必要的介绍和阐述。本章是全文的导览和总括。第二章为相关理论。这一章围绕本文的研究主题，从四个方面进行了有关理论的梳理：首先阐释了内外均衡理论。从均衡思想的引入到其广泛传播，再到其发展和完善这一历史进程的演进中，可明确均衡的含义，内外均衡的概念正是在均衡概念的基础上发展起来的。内外均衡相互影响、互相作用，它们之间的矛盾和冲突更为常见和频繁。其次阐释了财政政策理论。从财政政策概念、政策目标、政策工具以及传导机制四个内容对财政政策理论作了系统深入的分析。再次阐释了货币政策理论。与财政政策理论的论述思路相同，分别从货币政策的概念、目标、政策工具和传导机制四部分内容加以研究。最后阐释了财政与货币政策搭配理论。从政策搭配的必要性和政策搭配的理论逻辑两个方面进行论述。本章是全文的理论陈述，为后文的实证研究提供理论基础。第三章为中国金融可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的建立。建立CGE模型并无统一的章法可循，一般由问题驱动。鉴于本文是研究财政政策和货币政策对中国内外均衡的优化问题，因此需要建立金融CGE模型。本章建立的金融CGE模型主要刻画居民、企业、政府、中央银行、商业银行以及国外的经济行为，分别建立了生产方程、价格方程、收入支出方程和金融资产组合方程。然后根据一般均衡理论，建立了市场出清方程。在此基础上根据研究目的，选择凯恩斯宏观闭合和与之相对应的价格基准。本章是全文的重点和核心。第四章为中国2011年金融社会核算矩阵的编制。CGE模型的数据基础是社会核算矩阵（SAM）。本章建立的金融SAM主要分为实体模块和金融模块两部分。实体模块描述的是活动、商品、要素账户以及各类机构的经常账户。金融模块描述的是各类机构的资本账户和金融工具账户。通过储蓄与固定资产投资的相互转化，实现了实体模块和金融模块的连接。本章接下来运用编制好的金融SAM，对金融CGE模型中的参数进行了估计和校准，为该模型的可计算性奠定了基础。本章是为上一章建立的模型提供数据支撑。第五章为基于中国金融CGE模型的政策优化。这一章是在前四章研究的基础上，用金融CGE模型模拟财政货币政策变化对中国内外均衡的影响。本章共对三种财政政策工具和三种货币政策工具进行模拟，分别为间接税率、购买性支出、转移性支出、汇率、存款准备金率以及存贷款基准利率。在设定模拟情景之后，用GAMS程序对模拟结果进行了运算，显示出六种政策工具的变化对内外均衡的影响。本章是在第二章理论研究的指导下，依据第三章建立的模型，采用第四章编制的数据进行模型程序的实现和模拟结果的分析。第六章为基本结论及对策建议。这一章主要针对第五章模拟的结果，归纳出全文的结论，并依据结论提出切实可行的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s reform and opening-up has taken place from the beginning of1978. With thedevelopment of our country’s economy and the improvement of opening to the outside world,the contradictions of Chinese internal and external equilibrium become increasingly intenseand complex. In order to control Chinese internal and external economic disequilibrium, ourgovernment uses a variety of policy instruments, and strengthens the policy force. However,the policy effect is not just as one wish. In recent years internal structural disequilibrium andexternal double surplus have not been fundamentally improved. Internal and externaleconomic disequilibrium has brought out lots of obstacles and negative influence on thedevelopment of China. In the field of economy, it causes investment structural distortion, lowefficiency of resource allocation, not sustainable economic growth and may lead to economiccrisis; in the field of society, it causes the large social gap between rich and poor, unimprovedquality of people’s life，and may go against the national harmony and stability; in the field ofresource and environment, it causes environmental pollution, wasteful of scarce resources andso on. Therefore, Governance of Chinese internal and external economic disequilibrium isvery necessary and urgent. Under the background of Chinese internal and external problems,this paper studies the impact of macro policy on Chinese internal and external equilibrium inan optimized fiscal and monetary policy perspective.This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is introduction. This chapterintroduces the background and the significance of the study, and reviews the relevantliterature, research contents and methods, innovative features and shortcomings. This chapteris the overview of the full text.The second chapter reviews the related theories. This chapter focuses on four aspects:Firstly，it explains the internal and external equilibrium theory. The meaning of the concept ofinternal and external equilibrium is developed based on the concept of equilibrium. Thecontradiction and the conflict between the internal and external equilibrium is more commonand frequent. Secondly, it explains the theory of fiscal policy，which discusses from four mainaspects. They are as follows: the conception of fiscal policy, the objection of fiscal policy, thepolicy tools and conduction mechanism. It then explains the theory of monetary policy. Thecontent is similar with the front part, it focus on the conception of monetary policy, the goal offiscal policy, the policy tools and conduction mechanism. Last, but certainly not least, itexplains the theory of fiscal and monetary policy mix. The two aspects are discussed one byone: the necessity of the policy mix, and the theory logic of the policy mix. This chapter is atheoretical statement of the full text, providing the theoretical basis for the following empirical research.The third chapter presents the establishment of Chinese financial computable generalequilibrium (CGE) model. Generally speaking there are no certain rules to follow in order toestablish CGE. It is always driven by research purpose. In view of this paper is to study theoptimal fiscal and monetary policy to realize Chinese internal and external equilibrium, itneeds to establish financial CGE model. This model describes six main action bodies; they arethe resident, the enterprise, government, central bank, commercial bank and the foreigndepartment. Accordingly it forms four types of equations: the production equations, priceequations, income/expenditure equations and financial assets portfolio equations. Thenaccording to the general equilibrium theory, it establishes the market clearing equations. Thismodel chooses Keynes macro closure and corresponding with the price benchmark in the lightof the research objective. This chapter is the focus and core of the full text.The fourth chapter introduces construction of the Chinese2011Financial SocialAccounting Matrix (SAM), which is the database of the established financial CGE model.This financial SAM is mainly divided into two parts; they are entity module and financialmodule. Entity module describes the activity, commodity, elements and main action bodies’current account. Financial module describes main action bodies’ capital account and financialasset tools. The connection between entity module and financial module is realized throughthe mutual transformation of savings and investment in fixed assets. The remainder of thischapter calibrates the parameters of the estimated Financial CGE model using this financialSAM, which is the basis the model depends on. This chapter is to provide data support for thefinancial CGE model established on Chapter3.The fifth chapter addresses the issue of policy optimization based on Chinese financialCGE model. This chapter simulates the changes of fiscal and monetary policy, and thenexplores the effect of these changes to the Chinese internal and external equilibrium. Thereare three kinds of tools of fiscal policy and three kinds of tools of monetary policy: indirecttax, purchase expenditure, transfer expenditure, the exchange rate, the deposit reserve ratioand the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates. After setting the simulation scenarios, theoperation of these simulations are performed by GAMS program, which shows the effect ofthe changes of six kinds of policy tools to internal and external equilibrium. This chapterrealizes simulation results based on the second chapter’s theory, used the financial CGEmodel established on the third chapter, and taken advantage of data compiled on the fourthchapter.The sixth chapter draws some conclusions and suggestions. According to the simulationresults of the fifth chapter, this chapter sums up some conclusions of the paper,and putsforward feasible suggestions based on the conclusion.更多还原