【作者】 张帆；

【导师】 丁晓东； 汤兵勇；

【作者基本信息】 东华大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 博士

【摘要】 闭环供应链系统复杂程度高，不确定性问题也表现得相当突出。由于供应链不仅包含有节点企业间的各种关系，是人治系统，同时也包含如库存系统的反馈控制系统，是自治系统，因此，闭环供应链的不确定性问题可以从两个层面来讨论：①供应链关系层面，讨论不确定性对闭环供应链各节点之间关系的影响；②供应链运作层面，讨论不确定性对闭环供应链拓扑结构（特别是库存系统）的运作影响。不确定性问题研究有两类方向：一类是研究如何在不确定性下实现系统的优化，即不确定性优化；另一类则是研究如何在不确定性下保持系统的稳定性。稳定性是系统最基本的固有性质，一个系统要能正常的发挥功效，首先必须是稳定的。但现有文献对闭环供应链不确定性问题的研究多集中于不确定性优化，对不确定性下的供应链稳定性研究相对较少。本论文从供应链关系层面和供应链运作层面分别研究不确定性下闭环供应链的稳定性，重点讨论不确定性下闭环供应链联盟关系稳定性、多级库存系统运作稳定性、及逆向物流干扰恢复（稳定性恢复）等问题：1.讨论不确定性下闭环供应链联盟关系稳定性，构建一个制造商、两个价格竞争零售商和两个价格竞争第三方回收商组成的闭环供应链，在需求与回收均为随机不确定下，研究不同市场主导力量（制造商主导、零售商主导、无领导市场）和结盟情况对闭环供应链各成员最优决策的影响，并通过各成员利润占比结构的变化，来考察不确定性对零售商价格联盟、第三方回收商价格联盟关系稳定性的影响。研究表明，1）环境的不确定性对闭环供应链价格联盟关系稳定性具有显著影响。无论市场主导力量为何，随着回收不确定性的增加，零售商、第三方回收商联盟稳定性均随之增加。但第三方回收商联盟的稳定性要强于零售商联盟的稳定性；2）不同的市场主导力量下，零售商联盟和第三方回收商联盟的稳定程度有所不同，零售商联盟稳定程度在零售商主导的市场中最高，在无领导市场中次之，在制造商主导的市场中最低；而第三方回收商联盟的稳定程度在无领导市场中最高，在零售商主导的市场中次之，在制造商主导的市场中最低。2.进一步考察政府补贴的注入对不确定性下闭环供应链价格联盟关系稳定性的影响。研究在需求与回收均为随机不确定下，政府补贴作用于第三方回收商的回收数量、和作用于制造商再制造时，不同政府补贴率对闭环供应链各成员最优决策的影响，及对零售商价格联盟、第三方回收商价格联盟关系稳定性的影响。最后，还通过对政府补贴机制的设计，实现基于经济-环境效益最大化的回收决策。研究表明，1）综合看来，制造商、第三方回收商总在政府补贴作用于自身时，其利润占比结构占优；而零售商则在无政府补贴时利润占比结构占优。因此，政府补贴的注入，增强了不确定性下第三方回收商联盟的稳定程度，而削弱了零售商联盟的稳定程度；2）随着城市化进程的推进，单位回收再制造所产生的环境效益将日益增大，政府为激励企业选择经济-环境效益最大化回收决策的补贴率也将随之增大。因此，政府应尽早介入对废旧物品回收再制造的补贴，不仅能发展回收再制造产业，减轻环境危机，同时也能使政府财政支出控制在较低水平，是多赢的选择。3.讨论不确定性下闭环供应链库存系统运作稳定性，构建由零售商、制造商、原材料商和第三方回收商组成的闭环供应链多级库存系统，利用SD方法在需求阶跃的外部输入下进行动态仿真，通过对十一个仿真参数（延迟函数类型、零售商库存调整系数、制造商库存调整系数、原材料商库存调整系数、回收商库存调整系数、交货延迟时间、产品生产时间、原材料生产时间、分检处理时间、再利用原材料所占比例、可再利用占回收总量的比例）的设置，来确定该多级库存系统运作稳定的临界条件及稳定域。研究发现，1）库存系统运作稳定性与各节点延迟函数类型的相关性很大；2）回收商库存环路中的系统参数，可再利用占回收总量比例（V_r_c），会对回收商库存环路的运作稳定性边界产生显著影响，其影响大致可描述为：可再利用占回收总量比例（V_r_c）越大，纯延迟下回收商库存环路运作稳定性区域越小。4.进一步对闭环供应链库存运作稳定域内节点企业的不确定性优化进行研究。选取回收商库存环路为研究对象，1）确定其稳定域内稳定性指标（ITAE、订单最大超调量）的Pareto最优点分布区域；2）选择其中一个Pareto最优点所代表的系统参数组合来构建回收商模型，有别于现有文献中直接由给定的系统参数来构建模型，保证了所构建模型具有最优化的稳定性系统结构；3）通过回收努力因子将回收市场的模糊不确定性综合转化到回收价格上，设计基于模糊模拟的单纯形算法，对带模糊参数的回收商库存模型进行优化。5.讨论逆向物流中的干扰恢复（稳定性恢复），以车辆维修逆向物流为研究对象，研究车辆维修流程执行过程中突然受到顾客服务时间窗和服务需求量变化而产生的干扰的恢复问题。从干扰管理的角度，提出了车辆维修扰动恢复策略、扰动度量方法和车辆维修扰动恢复问题的转化方法，构建带有顾客车辆维修时间窗和维修需求量变动的扰动恢复模型。并对模型的干扰管理优化结果、按原维修流程执行结果、及重新分配维修计划结果等三种干扰不同处理方式下的执行结果进行对比，证明了以系统扰动最小化为目标的干扰管理方法在车辆维修逆向物流扰动恢复问题上的有效性。本文的主要创新点可概括为如下三点：1.针对不确定性对闭环供应链联盟关系稳定性的影响进行研究。目前对供应链联盟关系的研究主要集中在确定性环境和正向供应链中，但随着循环经济的不断发展，闭环供应链中的联盟关系实践将越来越丰富。本论文针对不确定性下闭环供应链价格联盟关系的研究，丰富了供应链联盟关系的研究内容。2.研究了闭环供应链多级库存系统的运作稳定性，并进一步在库存运作稳定域内对回收商库存模型进行不确定性优化。现有文献研究库存运作稳定性主要集中在正向供应链领域，而闭环供应链受不确定性影响程度更深，研究闭环供应链多级库存系统的运作稳定性有其现实意义。随后选取运作稳定域内稳定性指标Pareto最优的参数构建回收商库存模型，与其他直接由给定系统参数构建的回收商模型相比，该回收商模型更具稳定性的系统结构。3．将干扰管理引入逆向物流干扰恢复(稳定性恢复)问题的研究中。干扰管理以系统扰动最小化为目标，非常符合现代供应链的发展需求。目前干扰管理在闭环供应链或逆向物流领域的运用尚属少见。而企业的各种返修、售后等逆向物流是最能提高顾客满意度的环节，也是最容易因顾客原因而产生干扰的环节，因此，将干扰管理引入逆向物流干扰恢复问题中，有其现实价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The closed-loop supply chain is a highly complex system, and its uncertainty problem is alsoprominent. CLCS is not only a system of rule by man because of various relations among eachnode, but also an autonomous system because of feedback control systems such as inventorysystem. Therefore, the uncertainty problem of CLCS can be discussed from two aspects:1)supplychain relationship level, discuss the influence of uncertainty on the relationship between each nodein CLCS;2)supply chain operational level, discuss the influence of uncertainty on the operation ofthe topological structure of CLCS, especially inventory system.Researches on uncertainty problem have two directions: one is to study how to achievesystem optimization under uncertainty, namely, uncertainty optimization; another is to study howto keep system stability under uncertainty. Stability is the inherent nature of the system. However,the literatures on uncertainty problem of CLCS are concentrated on uncertainty optimization, andthe research on supply chain stability under uncertainty is relatively less. This thesis study thestability of CLCS under uncertainty from supply chain relationship level and supply chainoperational level, focuses on alliance stability of CLCS under uncertainty, operation stability ofCLCS multi-level inventory system, and reverse logistics interference recovery (stabilityrecovery):1. In discussing the alliance stability under uncertainty, a CLSC composed of a manufacturerand two price-competing retailers and two price-competing third party recyclers is researchedunder random demand and random recovery. The paper discusses the different market dominantpower (manufacturer Stackelberg, retailer Stackelberg, or manufacturer-retailer Nash) anddifferent type of alliance how to influence the CLSC optimal decision-making. And research theinfluence of uncertainty on the stability of retailer price alliance and third party recycler pricealliance by discussing the ratio of profit distribution of each member. Research shows that,1)environmental uncertainty has significant effect on the stability of the pricing alliance. Regardlessof the market dominant power, with the increasing uncertainty of recovery, the stability of retaileralliance and third party recycler alliance increase. But the stability of third party recyclers isstronger than retailer alliance;2) the stabilities of retailer alliance and third party recyclers allianceare different under different market dominant power. The stability degree of retailer alliance ishighest in retailer Stackelberg, lower in manufacturer-retailer Nash and lowest in manufacturersStackelberg. And the stability degree of third party recycler alliance is highest inmanufacturer-retailer Nash, lower in retailer Stackelberg and lowest in manufacturers Stackelberg.2. Futher study on the influence of government subsidies on alliance stability underuncertainty. Within random demand and random recovery, research on different ratio ofgovernment subsidies how to influence each members’ optimal decision and the stability of retailer alliance and third party recycler alliance when government subsidy affect recoveryquantity of third party recycler and remanufacture quantity of manufacturer. Finally design agovernment subsidy mechanism to achieve the recovery decision of maximizing benefit ofeconomy and environment. Research shows that,1) taken together, manufacturers and third partyrecyclers always have dominant profits proportion when government subsidies affectingthemselves; and retailers always have dominant profits proportion when none of governmentsubsidies. Therefore, government subsidies enhance the stability of third party recycler alliancebut weaken the stability of retailer alliance;2) with the city development, the unit ofenvironmental benefits of remanufacturing will increase, and the ratio of government subsidies onencouraging enterprises to select recycling decision based on maximizing economy-environmentbenefits will increase. Therefore, government subsidies on recycling and remanufacturing shouldbe implemented as early as possible. It not only can develop remanufacturing industry, also cancontrol government finance expenditure at a low level, it is a "win-win" selection.3. In discussing the operation stability of inventory system, a CLCS multi-level inventorysystem composed of a retailer, a manufacturer, a raw material manufacturer and a third partyrecycler is simulated by system dynamics methods under demand step. And determine the stabilityconditions and stability area of this multi-level CLCS inventory system by simulating eleven mainparameters (type of delay function, adjustment coefficient of retail inventory, adjustmentcoefficient of manufacturer inventory, adjustment coefficient of raw material manufacturerinventory, adjustment coefficient of recycler inventory, delivery time, production time, rawmaterial production time, recycle processing time, rate of recycle material, rate of remanufacture).The research found,1) stability of inventory system is major correlated with the type of delayfunction;2) rate of remanufacture (V_r_c) has significant impact on the stability boundary ofrecycler inventory control loop. A different V_r_c leads to a different stability boundary ofrecycler inventory control loop. And the trend can be basically described as: with bigger V_r_c,the stability area of recycler inventory control loop is smaller.4. Further research on uncertainty optimization of node enterprise within the stability area ofCLCS inventory system. Select recycler inventory control loop as the research object,1)determine the distribution of Pareto optimal dots of stability indexes (ITAE, maximum orderovershoot) within the stability area;2) establish the recycler model by one parameter combinationrepresenting Pareto optimal dots in which ensures the optimal stability of system structure. Thisrecycler model is different from other model established by giving parameters in current literatures;3) transform fuzzy recovery uncertainty to fuzzy recovery price by the recovery effort factor, anddesign a simplex algorithm based on fuzzy simulation to optimize the recycler inventory modelwith fuzzy parameters.5. In discussing the disruption recovery (stability recovery) in reverse logistics, put thevehicle maintenance as research objective and research the disruption caused by changes of timewindows and repair requirement from customers during vehicle maintenance. Propose disruptionrecovery strategy, disruption measure method, disruption recovery transformation and disruptionmanagement model based on the theory of disruption management. And by numerical example theresult from disruption management, the result from executing former plan and the result fromredistribution are contrasted. The contrasts show the validity of this disruption managementmethod minimizing system disruption on disruption recovery in reverse logistics.In this thesis, the main innovation can be summarized as the following three points:1. Aiming at the influence of uncertainty on CLCS alliance stability. Current researches onsupply chain alliance mainly concentrate on the deterministic environment and traditional supply chain, but with the development of cyclic economy the practical of CLCS alliance will increase.Reserching on CLCS alliance stability under uncertainty abound the research of supply chainalliances.2. Study on the operation stability of CLCS multi-level inventory system, and furtherresearch the uncertainty optimization of recycler inventory model within the operation stabilityarea. Existing literatures on inventory operation stability are mainly concentrated in the forwardsupply chain. CLCS is influenced by uncertainty deeply, and then researching on operationstability of CLCS multi-level inventory system has its practical significance. Further establish therecycler inventory model with parameters of operation stability index Pareto optimal within itsstability area. This recycler inventory model has more stability in system structure than othermodels established by given parameters directly.3. Introduce disruption management into disruption recovery (stability recovery) problems inreverse logistics. Disruption management minimizing the disruption of system catches the needsof modern supply chain. At present disturbance management rarely applied in CLSC or reverselogistics field. Actually repair process and after-sales service in reverse logistic are the links whichcan promote customer satisfaction and also the links which suffer the disruption due to customerreason. Therefore, it is realistically valuable to introduce disruption management into researchesof the disruption recovery problems in reverse logistics.更多还原