【作者】 冯娅；

【导师】 刘传江；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 低碳经济是以低能耗、低排放、低污染为特征的社会经济模式，目标是在减少温室气体排放来构建一个以低能耗、低污染为基础的经济发展体系。而产业走低碳发展之路是发展低碳经济的重点。因此，本文以湖北省产业碳排放水平现状为切入点，对湖北省产业碳排放水平及其影响因素进行了系统的研究，目的在于为未来产业低排放、低能耗、低污染和高产出作出经济学分析和政策研究。内容主要围绕以下几个方面展开：第一，介绍本文研究的国内外背景、研究意义以及国内外研究综述；第二，对相关理论进行了梳理；第三，依据产业关联理论，和碳排放理论来分析湖北产业发碳排放水平现状，分析了湖北省产业发展对经济的影响作用；第四，对湖北省产业碳排放水平影响因素进行了三因素和五因素实证分析；第五，借鉴国内外产业节能减排的经验得出启示；第六，构建出低碳经济下湖北省未来产业减排策略与措施。论文的研究思路遵循着文献研究——理论研究——实证研究——国内外经验借鉴——政策与建议的行文逻辑，具体如下：首先论文介绍了研究的选题背景、现实及学术意义，深入地梳理与评价了产业碳排放水平和影响因素发展的国内外相关文献研究的现状，在此基础之上提出低碳经济下湖北省未来产业减排的方向、方法与对策。论文在理论部分介绍了产业经济学相关理论（产业关联理论、产业结构理论），碳排放与因素分解理论（卡亚公式、指数分解理论、因素分解理论以及脱钩理论）四个方面的主要理论进行阐述，深入系统地对现代产业向低碳方向发展研究进行理论研究与追溯。在实证研究上，论文首先分析了湖北省产业碳排放水平的现状。通过编制新的能源投入产出表对湖北省能源投入产出表进行了重新编订与分类，通过对湖北省各行业碳排放量、碳排放强度、碳生产率、以及产业增加值与碳排放的关系进行了湖北省产业碳排放水平的现状分析。其次，通过修订能源直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数，测算了各行业影响力系数、感应度系数以及行业边际产值碳排放量，通过比较这两个系数来分析湖北省其他行业之间的相互影响力以及对湖北省经济的拉动与推动作用，找出目前湖北省产业结构不合理、碳排放量高、能源消耗强度大的原因。并综合分析了各项指标，找出了未来适合湖北省产业碳减排的主导产业。针对现状，论文运用LMDI因素分解法，对湖北省能源消耗影响因素以及湖北省产业碳排放水平影响因素进行了研究。对能源消耗的影响因素采用三因素模型分析，即经济规模、产业结构和能源利用效率三个方面，结果表明，经济规模的增加是能源消耗增加的主要因素，而能源效率的提升是降低能源消耗的主要因素，产业结构的改善对能源消耗的影响不大。对湖北省产业碳排放水平影响因素的分析是基于LMDI分解的五因素模型，除了前面的三个因素外还包括能源结构和碳排放因子，分析表明，经济规模增加仍然是碳排放增加的主要因素，而能源效率的提升和能源结构的改善均有利于降低二氧化碳的排放量，产业结构因素对二氧化碳减排作用不大。最后政策部分，论文通过对发达国家的四种治理模式，即联合治理、市场治理、企业治理以及国家治理，从企业和政府两个角度来探讨了低碳经济下国外产业减排的经验和模式。其次，对国内部分经济发达、以及与湖北经济发展条件相类似的省份（上海、江苏、江西）对产业减排方法的探讨，分析了一个好的制度治理体系是国家、产业与企业之间的互动与合作，并且可以改变生产与消费模式，提升产业和企业竞争力。最后通过对国内外经验和借鉴总结了对湖北省未来产业减排的策略与方向。同时，通过对上述湖北省产业结构目前存在的问题进行分析，预测了湖北产业减排的趋势，对比十二五湖北省减排目标，制定了低碳经济下湖北省未来产业减排行之有效的策略与措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 A “Low carbon economy” is a kind of social economic model which ischaracterized by low energy consumption, low pollution and low emission. It is toreduce the greenhouse gas emissions so as to establish an economic developmentsystem which is based on low energy consumption and low pollution. The focus oflow carbon development is to make industry move toward a low-carbon emission path.Therefore, this dissertation takes the current carbon emission levels of industry inHubei Province as key point and makes a systematic analysis of the carbon emissionlevels of industry and its influencing factors. The purpose of the research is to makean economic analysis and policy for the low emission, low energy consumption, lowpollution and high production of our industry in the future.The content centers on following several aspects: First, it introduces the domesticand foreign background, research as well as the national and foreign researchsituations. Second, it collects some related theories. Third, this dissertation attempts,according to the theory of industrial relationship theory and carbon emission theory,to analyze the current carbon emission levels of industry in Hubei Province and hasanalyzed the economic influences of Hubei’s industrial development. Forth, it makesan empirical analysis, through both a three factor and five factor model of theinfluencing factors of carbon emission levels of industry in Hubei Province. Fifth,referring to the experiences in energy conservation and pollution reduction ofdomestic and foreign industry, it gains some enlighten. Sixth, it has constructed thatcarbon-cutting strategy and measures in future industry in Hubei Province undercircumstance of low carbon economy.This dissertation follows the order of the document research---theoreticalresearch---empirical research---reference to domestic and foreign experiences---thewriting logic of policies and suggestions, as discussed below:Firstly, this dissertation introduces the research background, realistic andacademic significance, which discusses and evaluates the carbon emission levels of industry as well as the current situations of domestic and foreign related research. Onthis basis it puts forward the directions, methods and measures of future industry inHubei Province under the circumstance of a low carbon economy.This dissertation introduces and describes these three main theories: the theory ofindustrial related economic (industry relevance theory and industry structure theory),low carbon economy (carbon footprint theory, decoupling theory and the rollercoaster theory) as well as carbon emissions and factor decomposition (card andformula, index decomposition theory and factor decomposition theory), it also hasmakes theoretical research and reviews the modern industry’s transformation to thedirection of low carbon deeply and systematically.For the case study, it firstly analyzes the current carbon emissions levels ofindustry in Hubei Province. It makes rearrangement and classification to the energyinput-output table by establishing new energy input-output table and makes a currentanalysis of carbon emission levels of industry in Hubei Province by doing research inthe amount of carbon emission in each industry, carbon emission intensity, carbonproductivity, along with the relationship between industry added value and carbonemissions.Secondly, it estimates the influence coefficient in each industry, sensitivitycoefficient and industry marginal value of carbon emissions, by revising directconsumption coefficient and complete consumption coefficient of energy. Bycomparing the two coefficients it aims at analyzing the mutual influences of otherindustries in Hubei Province as well as the pushing and pulling effects on theeconomy of Hubei. By doing this, it tries to find out the reason of the currentproblems in the economy of Hubei, like the unreasonable industry structure, highcarbon emissions and intensive energy consumption and analyses every indexsynthetically to find out the leading industries which are most adapted to Hubei.In allusion to the current situations, this dissertation uses LMDI factordecomposition method to make research to the influencing factors of energyconsumption and carbon emissions level of industry in Hubei. It makes use of threefactor mode, namely economic scale, economic structure and energy utilization, to analyze the influencing factors of energy consumption. The result shows that the mainreason of the increasing energy consumption is the increasing economic structure,while the main reason of the reducing energy consumption is the increasing economicstructure; however, the impact of the improvement of the economic structure onenergy consumption is not big. The analysis of the influencing factors of carbonemissions in industry of Hubei Province is based on five factor mode, besides thethree factors mentioned above, the analysis also includes energy structure and carbonemission factor, the analysis also shows that the main reason of the increasing carbonemissions is the increasing economic scale, while the promotion of the energyefficiency and the improvement of energy structure is helpful to reducing theemissions of carbon dioxide, the impact of energy structure on emission reduction ofcarbon dioxide is not big.In the last part of the policy, this dissertation, from the prospective of bothenterprise and government, discusses the experiences and modes of the emissionreduction of foreign industry through four management modes of developed country,namely joint administration, market governance, corporate governance and nationalgovernance. Then, it discusses the methods of emission reduction of industry insome developed provinces in china (like shanghai, jiangsu, jiangxi). This dissertationconcludes that a good management system can enhance the mutual cooperationbetween governments, industry and corporate, it also can change the production andconsumption modes and increase the competitiveness of corporate as well as industry.At the same time, it predicts the developing tendency of Hubei industry byanalyzing the current problems industrial structure of Hubei Province as wementioned above. Compared to the reduction target of carbon emissions in12thFiveYear Plan, it makes effective strategies and measures to the future industry in HubeiProvince under the circumstance of low carbon economy.更多还原