【作者】 李勇；

【导师】 管昌生；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 土木工程建造与管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 在工程项目管理实践中，施工进度管理直接关系到项目的经济效益，是项目管理的核心指标之一。由于施工过程的复杂性、动态性、不确定性等原因，使得工程实施中进度的预测与控制难度极大。在施工进度的实际管理中，合理考虑复杂多影响因素影响，能充分预测施工计划的不确定性，更加准确地评估工期风险，从而更加有效地控制施工进度。本文旨在通过对进度复杂影响因素的概率统计分析，构建施工进度复杂因素的预测模型，提出基于BIM技术的进度预测集成系统，提高施工过程中短期工作复杂变化的定量、精细进度预测水平，以及整体施工进度的预测分析水平。本文的主要工作如下：首先，分析了BIM技术与精益建造LC理论的特点与异同，探讨了BIM技术和精益建造LC协同应用模式，提出BIM和LC关键技术集成方法。其次，施工进度复杂影响因素随机分析。总结了施工工期的确定方法，基于计算机Dijkstra算法，改进网络计划计算系统，实现施工进度六个时间参数的自动计算和关键线路的自动识别计算，弥补现有施工进度软件应用系统不足。深入分析施工进度复杂影响因素的不确定性，提出了施工进度影响因素的概率统计方法。第三，采用概率论、数理统计方法、可靠性理论、项目管理理论等，分析施工计划进度和预测实际进度的复杂关系，研究了单因素影响的施工进度随机预测模型。包括：材料供应因素和管理水平因素的确定性单因素目标进度预测模型、随机性单因素目标进度预测模型、单因素目标进度随机性预测模型。同时建立多种同类单因素进度预测模型。第四，研究了多因素影响的整体进度预测模型。考虑随机性因素目标进度、因素目标进度随机性两种情况下，建立整个施工网络计划目标进度矩阵和进度偏移矩阵，得出整个施工网络计划预测进度矩阵和矩阵范数。同时提出工期优化控制方法。第五，提出施工进度BIM技术预测集成方法，进行集成系统架构，探讨集成系统对单元工作进度和整体施工进度的影响因素识别、工期预测、实际进度定量预测方法，结合BIM技术平台实现施工进度的有效控制。最后，工程案例分析，验证了本研究成果的可行性与适用性。研究结果表明，本文研究方法能够合理估计进度计划的不确定性，根据施工进度影响因素变化对进度计划进行动态监控，在工程实践中有着广泛的应用前景和巨大的应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the practice of project management, construction schedule management,which relates to economic benefits of project directly, is one of the core indices forproject management. The fact that complication, dynamics and uncertainty exist in theprocess of construction makes the prediction and control of schedule extremelydifficult in engineering implementations. In actual construction schedule management,the complicated multiple influencing factors are considered reasonably, which canpredict the uncertainty in construction process sufficiently, evaluate project durationrisks more exactly and then control construction schedule more effectively.By the probability and statistical analysis of complicated factors which haveeffects on schedule, this paper establishes the prediction model of complicated factorsabout construction schedule, puts forward to schedule prediction integration systembased on BIM technology, improves the complicated varying quantity of short-termworks in construction process, subtilizes the level of schedule prediction and adjustspredictive analysis level of overall construction schedule.The main work of this paper as follows:Firstly, the characteristics, differences and similarities between BIM technologyand LC theory are analyzed, collaborative applications between BIM technology andLC theory are discussed, and the integration method of key technologies for BIM andLC is proposed.Secondly, the stochastic analysis about complicated factors which have animpact on construction schedule is conducted. The methods which are used todetermine construction duration are summarized. On the basis of Dijkstra algorithm,network planning computation system is designed, six time annotations ofconstruction schedule can be automatically computed is realized, the key path can beautomatically identified and computed, and the shortages of application system aboutcurrent construction schedule software can be remedied. The uncertainty ofcomplicated factors which influence construction schedule is analyzed deeply, theprobability and statistical method for factors which have an impact on construction isproposed.Thirdly, the probability theory, mathematical statistics method, reliability theory,and project management theory are utilized. The complicated relationship betweenconstructive planning schedule and predictive actual schedule is analyzed. The random prediction model for construction schedule which affected by a single factoris researched. The models include the following: predictive models for objectiveschedule about material supply and management level which act as determinate singlefactors, predictive model for objective schedule about a random single factor, andpredictive model for random objective schedule about a random single factor.Simultaneously, the predictive model for schedule about multiple congeneric singlefactors is established.Fourthly, the overall schedule prediction model which is influenced by multiplefactors is studied. With random factor and determinate objective schedule as well asrandom factor and random objective considered respectively, the objective schedulematrix about overall construction network planning and schedule deviation matrix areestablished. The predictive schedule matrix of overall construction network planningand the matrix norm are achieved. Simultaneously, the method for project durationoptimization and control is proposed.Fifthly, the prediction method of construction schedule based on BIM technologyis proposed, the integrated systematical architecture is carried out. The influencingfactor identification, project duration prediction and quantitative predictive methodfor actual schedule which integrated system to unit work schedule and overallconstruction schedule are discussed. The effective control on construction schedulewhich is combined with BIM platform is realized.Finally, the feasibility and applicability of research results are verified, which isbased on engineering project analysis. The application results show that the researchmethods can estimate the uncertainty in schedule planning reasonably, monitor andcontrol the schedule planning dynamically according to influencing factor changes ofconstruction schedule. These results have wide application prospects as well as goodapplication value.更多还原